United States Department of Weed Risk Assessment Agriculture for Lilaeopsis mauritiana G. Petersen Animal and & Affolter (Apiaceae) – Mauritius Plant Health Inspection micro sword Service May 19, 2017 Version 1 Left: Lawn-like habit of Lilaeopsis mauritiana under high light in an aquarium. Right: Drawing of a clump without rhizomes. All photos obtained with permission (Nelson, 2017) from Tropica’s (2017) website. AGENCY CONTACT Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Plant Protection and Quarantine Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service United States Department of Agriculture 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27606 Weed Risk Assessment for Lilaeopsis mauritiana (Mauritius micro sword) 1. Introduction Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) regulates noxious weeds under the authority of the Plant Protection Act (7 U.S.C. § 7701-7786, 2000) and the Federal Seed Act (7 U.S.C. § 1581-1610, 1939). A noxious weed is defined as “any plant or plant product that can directly or indirectly injure or cause damage to crops (including nursery stock or plant products), livestock, poultry, or other interests of agriculture, irrigation, navigation, the natural resources of the United States, the public health, or the environment” (7 U.S.C. § 7701-7786, 2000). We use the PPQ weed risk assessment (WRA) process (PPQ, 2015) to evaluate the risk potential of plants, including those newly detected in the United States, those proposed for import, and those emerging as weeds elsewhere in the world. The PPQ WRA process includes three analytical components that together describe the risk profile of a plant species (risk potential, uncertainty, and geographic potential; PPQ, 2015). At the core of the process is the predictive risk model that evaluates the baseline invasive/weed potential of a plant species using information related to its ability to establish, spread, and cause harm in natural, anthropogenic, and production systems (Koop et al., 2012). Because the predictive model is geographically and climatically neutral, it can be used to evaluate the risk of any plant species for the entire United States or for any area within it. We then use a stochastic simulation to evaluate how much the uncertainty associated with the risk analysis affects the outcomes from the predictive model. The simulation essentially evaluates what other risk scores might result if any answers in the predictive model might change. Finally, we use Geographic Information System (GIS) overlays to evaluate those areas of the United States that may be suitable for the establishment of the species. For a detailed description of the PPQ WRA process, please refer to the PPQ Weed Risk Assessment Guidelines (PPQ, 2015), which is available upon request. We emphasize that our WRA process is designed to estimate the baseline—or unmitigated—risk associated with a plant species. We use evidence from anywhere in the world and in any type of system (production, anthropogenic, or natural) for the assessment, which makes our process a very broad evaluation. This is appropriate for the types of actions considered by our agency (e.g., Federal regulation). Furthermore, risk assessment and risk management are distinctly different phases of pest risk analysis (e.g., IPPC, 2015). Although we may use evidence about existing or proposed control programs in the assessment, the ease or difficulty of control has no bearing on the risk potential for a species. That information could be considered during the risk management (decision-making) process, which is not addressed in this document. Ver. 1 May 19, 2017 1 Weed Risk Assessment for Lilaeopsis mauritiana (Mauritius micro sword) 2. Plant Information and Background SPECIES: Lilaeopsis mauritiana G. Petersen & Affolter (Petersen and Affolter, 1999; The Plant List, 2017). According to The Plant List, this is an unresolved name. Bone et al. (2011) examined ITS and chloroplast DNA sequences of 13 Lilaeopsis species and found that in all cladograms, L. brasiliensis and L. mauritiana were very closely allied. Although the fruit types of these two species are distinct, their molecular data suggest that the morphologically unique plants of Mauritius may actually be aberrant members of L. brasiliensis (Bone et al., 2011). For the purpose of this WRA, we treated L. mauritiana as a distinct species to be consistent with its current taxonomic status (Petersen and Affolter, 1999). FAMILY: Apiaceae. SYNONYMS: None. COMMON NAMES: Micro sword (PAC, 2017), Mauritius micro sword (Anonymous, 2017). BOTANICAL DESCRIPTION: Lilaeopsis mauritiana is an herbaceous, perennial herb with creeping rhizomes that are 0.5-1.2 mm in diameter (Petersen and Affolter, 1999; Windeløv, 2004). Leaves arise individually or in 2-4-leaved clusters directly from the rhizomes. Leaves are linear to subulate, hollow, and round to elliptical in cross section, and 2.8-13.0 cm long (Petersen and Affolter, 1999). Inflorescences are simple umbels borne on the axils along the horizontal rhizome. Umbels are 3-6- flowered. Fruit are globose to ellipsoid/obovoid schizocarps, 1.9-2.5 mm long by 1.7-2.0 mm wide. Fruit lack any spongy cells (Petersen and Affolter, 1999). The chromosome number is 2n = 22 (Petersen and Affolter, 1999). Lilaeopsis mauritiana was discovered in 1992 on Mauritius by the owner of Tropica, an aquatic plant nursery in Denmark (Windeløv, 2004). For a more detailed description and drawings of the species, see Petersen and Affolter (1999). INITIATION: PPQ received a market access request for L. mauritiana for propagation from the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries of the Danish Plant Directorate (MFAF, 2009). Because this species is not native to the United States (Petersen and Affolter, 1999), the PPQ Weeds Cross-Functional Working Group initiated this assessment to determine if L. mauritiana poses a significant pest risk to the United States. WRA AREA1: Entire United States, including territories. FOREIGN DISTRIBUTION: Lilaeopsis mauritiana has only been collected from a single location, in a nature park in the southeast side of Mauritius (Petersen and Affolter, 1999). It may also be present on 1 “WRA area” is the area in relation to which the weed risk assessment is conducted [definition modified from that for “PRA area”] (IPPC, 2012). Ver. 1 May 19, 2017 2 Weed Risk Assessment for Lilaeopsis mauritiana (Mauritius micro sword) Madagascar, but that identification is tentative since it is based on a 1920s specimen of a sterile plant (Bone et al., 2011; Raynal, 1977). Lilaeopsis mauritiana has been introduced to Denmark, where it is commercially propagated (Bone et al., 2011). It has also been introduced into Canada, where it is commonly sold at a volume of 276 sales across 20 retail stores in 2010 (Azan, 2011). U.S. DISTRIBUTION AND STATUS: We found no evidence that L. mauritiana is naturalized in the United States (e.g., EDDMapS, 2017; Kartesz, 2017; NRCS, 2017; Weakley, 2015). This species is sold by online retailers in Arizona (PAC, 2017), California (AFA, 2017), and Florida (Aquarium Plants, 2017), as well as by sellers on eBay (2017). Because L. mauritiana was discovered on Mauritius in 1992 (Petersen and Affolter, 1999), it has not been in the U.S. trade for more than 25 years. We found no evidence that this species is regulated in the United States (e.g., NPB, 2016; USDA-AMS, 2016). 3. Analysis ESTABLISHMENT/SPREAD POTENTIAL We found no evidence that L. mauritiana has escaped or spread anywhere outside of cultivation. This is not surprising given that the species was only recently discovered (Windeløv, 2004) and described (Petersen and Affolter, 1999), and has had a limited opportunity to escape. Other than its botanical description (Petersen and Affolter, 1999) and what little information is available on aquarium forums, nothing is known about its biology. Our risk assessment is based primarily on information from congeners and the genus as a whole. Lilaeopsis mauritiana has some traits that may promote invasiveness outside of cultivation. For example, it can form a dense “lawn” in aquaria (Windeløv, 2004), reproduces sexually and vegetatively (Azan, 2011; Winterton and Scher, 2007), and is dispersed by water. Like other Lilaeopsis species, it is likely self-compatible (Affolter, 1985) and is probably dispersed by birds (Bone et al., 2011). Overall, we had very high uncertainty for this risk element and could not answer six of the questions. Risk score = 0 Uncertainty index = 0.38 IMPACT POTENTIAL We found no evidence that this species is considered weedy or has had any specific impacts. Rather than answering the questions as no based on a lack of evidence, we answered most of the impact questions as unknown because this species has not had a sufficient opportunity to demonstrate any invasive or harmful behaviors. Some plant species have a long lag-phase before becoming invasive (Baker, 1965; Kowarik, 1995). Answering the questions as unknown versus no does not affect the final risk score, but it does increase uncertainty, which is appropriate in this case. Not surprisingly, we had a very high uncertainty level for this risk element. Risk score = 1.0 Uncertainty index = 0.47 Ver. 1 May 19, 2017 3 Weed Risk Assessment for Lilaeopsis mauritiana (Mauritius micro sword) GEOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL Based on three climatic variables, we estimate that about 0.02 percent of the United States is suitable for the establishment of L. mauritiana (Fig. 1). This predicted distribution is based solely on the species’ known distribution on the island of Mauritius (Petersen and Affolter, 1999) and represents the joint distribution of Plant Hardiness Zone 13, areas with 30-40 inches of annual precipitation, and the Köppen-Geiger climate class corresponding to tropical rainforests. The area of the United States shown to be climatically suitable (Fig. 1) for species establishment considered only three climatic variables. Other variables, for example, soil and habitat type, novel climatic conditions, or plant genotypes, may alter the areas in which this species is likely to establish.