EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 26.2.2020 SWD(2020) 522 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Country Report Romania 2020 Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE EUROGROUP 2020 European Semester: Assessment of progress on structural reforms, prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances, and results of in-depth reviews under Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 {COM(2020) 150 final} EN EN CONTENTS Executive summary 4 1. Economic situation and outlook 9 2. Progress with country-specific recommendations 17 3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review 21 4. Reform priorities 25 4.1. Public finances and taxation 25 4.2. Financial sector 30 4.3. Labour market, education and social policies 33 4.4. Competitiveness, reforms and investment 45 4.5. Environmental Sustainability 63 Annex A: Overview Table 67 Annex B: Commission debt sustainability analysis and fiscal risks 75 Annex C: Standard Tables 76 Annex D: Investment guidance on Just Transition Fund 2021-2027 for Romania 82 Annex E: Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 85 References 90 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Key economic and financial indicators 16 Table 2.1: Assessment of 2019 CSR implementation 19 Table 3.1: MIP assessment matrix (*) - Romania 2020 23 Table C.1: Financial market indicators 76 Table C.2: Headline Social Scoreboard indicators 77 Table C.3: Labour market and education indicators 78 Table C.4: Social inclusion and health indicators 79 Table C.5: Product market performance and policy indicators 80 Table C.6: Green growth 81 1 LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1.1: GDP growth and demand-side components 9 Graph 1.2: Industrial production 9 Graph 1.3: Contribution to potential growth 10 Graph 1.4: Disparities between Romanian regions 10 Graph 1.5: Demographic change in Romania 11 Graph 1.6: Labour market overview 11 Graph 1.7: Current account breakdown and capital account 12 Graph 1.8: Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) 13 Graph 1.9: General government balance and output gap 13 Graph 1.10: 10 year government bond yield: Romania and peers 14 Graph 1.11: Loans to households and non-financial corporations 14 Graph 2.1: Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-2019 CSRs to date 17 Graph 4.1.1: Drivers of change of general government balance 25 Graph 4.1.2: Gross public pension expenditure in 2018-2022 25 Graph 4.1.3: Redistributive power of the tax and benefit systems in EU Member States, 2017 27 Graph 4.3.1: Demographic growth and working age population 33 Graph 4.3.2: Developments in hiring 34 Graph 4.3.3: Outpatient use vs inpatient use 39 Graph 4.3.4: Income inequality in Romania - S80/S20 income quintile share ratio 40 Graph 4.3.5: Severe material deprivation rate for children by educational attainment level of their parents 40 Graph 4.4.1: Net international investment position 45 Graph 4.4.2: Trade balance breakdown 46 Graph 4.4.3: Export market share by industry 46 Graph 4.4.4: RON-denominated export price evolution 47 Graph 4.4.5: Real effective exchange rate growth 47 Graph 4.4.6: Nominal unit labour cost 47 Graph 4.4.7: Value added and average labour productivity growth by manufacturing technology class 49 Graph 4.4.8: World rank of Romanian transport infrastructure on 13 indicators 52 Graph 4.4.9: Social needs - income distribution per region 55 Graph 4.4.10: Ease of Doing Business (2019) 57 Graph 4.5.1: EU highest GHG emissions per GDP in 2017 63 Graph 4.5.2: GHG emissions in Romania by sector 63 2 LIST OF BOXES Box 2.1: EU funds and programmes to address structural challenges and to foster growth and competitiveness in Romania 20 Box 4.1.1: New pension law: pension adequacy and budgetary sustainability 29 Box 4.3.1: Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights 43 Box 4.4.1: Investment challenges and reforms in Romania 48 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the absence of lasting reform efforts, growing demand for skills. Social dialogue remains limited. fiscal and current account deficits are putting Wages remain low compared to the EU average the sustainability of Romania’s economic but have been growing rapidly, supporting growth at risk. Strong domestic demand, employees’ purchasing power. The sustained wage stimulated by tax cuts and large wage increases, growth, strongly outpacing productivity increases, has been the economy’s growth engine in recent may pose risks to competitiveness in the future. years. This consumption-led growth model has pushed the country’s current account and public The public deficit has risen sizably, driven by finances into rising deficits. In addition, adverse current expenditure. The public deficit continued demographic developments have led to significant to increase, above the 3% of GDP Treaty threshold labour and skill shortages, limiting the country’s in 2019, driven by current spending. It is projected growth potential. Despite an average growth of to widen further, in particular due to a 40% around 5% in the past three years, inequality is pension indexation scheduled for September 2020. increasing and poverty remains high, while As in previous years, the rules of the national fiscal regional disparities are deepening. Without a framework have not been respected. A high public correction of the fiscal and external deficits and a deficit and increasing ageing costs result in high firm commitment to implement structural reforms, fiscal sustainability risks. Romania’s convergence towards EU living standards is likely to suffer important set-backs (1). The banking sector has remained solid, but financial intermediation is low. Some damaging The economy continues to grow, albeit at a provisions to the financial sector in December slower pace. Real GDP growth remained robust in 2018 were amended in 2019 and 2020, favouring 2019 at 4.1% on the back of private consumption, banks’ resilience and a stable capitalisation, above with investment providing support. Growth is the EU average. However, banks only play a forecast to ease to 3.6% and 3.3% in 2020 and limited role in providing credit to corporates, 2021 respectively, due to weaker industrial which may be holding back the economy. production and a softening external demand. Insufficient investment hampers the potential of The fiscal-led boom in domestic demand the economy to converge to EU levels. The continues, further widening the current account quality and reliability of the road and rail networks deficit. With strong private-consumption led is poor. Investment in sustainable transport, energy import growth outpacing exports, the current and environmental infrastructure (i.e. in waste, account deficit is set to deteriorate to 5.1% in 2019 wastewater and air pollution) is lacking. The and is expected to increase to 5.4% in 2021. energy, waste, wastewater infrastructure continue to need an important investment push. The labour market continued to tighten, while Prioritisation, stabilisation and increases of public significant challenges remain. A very low labour and private investment in research, development force participation rate and a decline of the active and innovation and in physical and digital population, due to demographic changes, including infrastructure would contribute to reduce regional emigration, have resulted in labour force and skill disparities and improve productivity and long-term shortages and mismatches. Labour activation growth. policies and adult learning programmes are not effective in responding to such needs. At the same Romania has made limited (2) progress in time, skill mismatches are deepening, while addressing the 2019 country-specific technological development generates a shift in the recommendations. There has been substantial progress in: (1) This report assesses Romania’s economy in light of the European Commission’s Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy published on 17 December 2019. In this Safeguarding financial stability and the document, the Commission sets out a new strategy on how robustness of the banking sector. to address not only the short-term economic challenges but also the economy’s longer-term challenges. This new economic agenda of competitive sustainability rests on four (2) Information on the level of progress and actions taken to dimensions: environmental sustainability, productivity address the policy advice in each respective subpart of a gains, fairness and macroeconomic stability. country-specific recommendation is presented in Annex A. 4 Executive summary There has been some progress in the following Improving the corporate governance of state- areas: owned enterprises. Ensuring the long-term viability of the second The Social Scoreboard supporting the pension pillar; European Pillar of Social Rights points to a number of employment and social challenges. Implementing the national public procurement High economic growth has translated into strategy. improved social conditions. However, poverty and social exclusion, as well as in-work poverty, There has been limited progress in the following remain very high while income inequalities have areas: increased. Social transfers have a limited impact on poverty reduction. Inequalities persist, in Efforts to strengthen tax compliance and particular for people in rural and disadvantaged collection; areas. The inactivity rate for women and early school leaving are also very high. The Improving the quality and inclusiveness of decentralisation of social services has not been education; accompanied by the provision of proper financial allocations, thus hampering the sustainability of Increasing the coverage and quality of social service delivery. The coverage of public services services; remains low. The de-institutionalisation of children continues to show encouraging progress. Improving social dialogue; Romania recorded positive progress towards Developing a minimum wage setting most of its national targets of the Europe 2020 mechanism based on objective criteria; strategy.