Technical Support Document for Recommendation that the Nogales, Arizona Area Be Designated as a PM2.5 Nonattainment Area Air Quality Division Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Janet Napolitano, Governor Stephen A. Owens, Director December 3, 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................1 PM2.5 MONITORING.................................................................................................................................1 Analysis of Monitoring Data ....................................................................................................................2 GEOGRAPHY AND TOPOGRAPHY .....................................................................................................2 Analysis of Geography and Topography..................................................................................................3 DEMOGRAPHICS.....................................................................................................................................3 Santa Cruz County, Arizona and Nogales, Arizona .................................................................................3 Nogales, Sonora, Mexico..........................................................................................................................7 Summary of Population Data ...................................................................................................................8 Population Density .................................................................................................................................10 Analysis of Demographics......................................................................................................................10 JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES ......................................................................................................11 Analysis of Jurisdictional Boundaries ....................................................................................................11 PLANNED DEVELOPMENTS...............................................................................................................12 Nogales, Arizona ....................................................................................................................................12 Nogales, Sonora, Mexico........................................................................................................................12 Analysis of Planned Developments........................................................................................................12 METEOROLOGY....................................................................................................................................15 Temperatures ..........................................................................................................................................15 Geography and Drainage........................................................................................................................15 Variations in Localized Winds ...............................................................................................................15 ADEQ Wind Monitoring in Nogales, Arizona.......................................................................................15 Synoptic Weather Patterns in the Southwest US....................................................................................16 Analysis of Meteorology ........................................................................................................................17 TRANSPORT OF EMISSIONS – MEXICO TO U.S............................................................................17 Analysis of Transport of Emissions........................................................................................................18 EMISSION SOURCES.............................................................................................................................18 Industrial Point Sources.......................................................................................................................18 Nogales, Arizona................................................................................................................................ 18 Nogales, Sonora, Mexico ................................................................................................................... 18 Growth of Point Sources .................................................................................................................... 18 Area Sources .........................................................................................................................................21 Nogales, Arizona................................................................................................................................ 21 Nogales, Sonora, Mexico ................................................................................................................... 21 Growth of Area Sources..................................................................................................................... 21 i Onroad Mobile Sources........................................................................................................................21 Growth of Onroad Mobile Sources .................................................................................................... 22 Nonroad Mobile Sources......................................................................................................................23 Growth of Nonroad Mobile Sources .................................................................................................. 23 Analysis of Emission Sources...............................................................................................................23 COMMUTING PATTERNS....................................................................................................................24 Analysis of Commuting Patterns............................................................................................................24 CONTROL MEASURES .........................................................................................................................25 Analysis of Control Measures ................................................................................................................25 SUMMARY OF ANALYSES ..................................................................................................................25 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................................................27 REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................28 APPENDIX A – ASU’s Nogales Winter Study.......................................................................................30 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 - Nogales, Arizona PM2.5 Monitoring Data for Years 1999 - 2006.................................................1 Table 2 - Land Ownership in Santa Cruz County ........................................................................................3 Table 3 - Population Data for Ambos Nogales ............................................................................................8 Table 4 - Population Projections for Ambos Nogales.................................................................................8 Table 5 - Population Projections for Rio Rico CDPs..................................................................................9 Table 6 – Population Projections for Nogales PM10 Nonattainment Area ...................................................9 Table7 - Persons Per Square Mile for Ambos Nogales..............................................................................10 Table 8 - Wind Climatology for Nogales, Arizona ....................................................................................15 Table 9 - PM2.5 and PM10 Emissions from Industrial Point Sources – Santa Cruz County ........................20 Table 10 - Registered Vehicles in Santa Cruz County and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico...............................21 Table 11 - Santa Cruz County July 2007 Vehicle Registration Report.....................................................22 Table 12 -Nogales, Arizona Ports of Entry – Vehicle and Train Traffic ...................................................24 LIST OF FIGURES Map 1 Arizona & Sonora Highway System................................................................................................4 Map 2 Topography of Ambos Nogales .......................................................................................................5 Map 3 Land Ownership in Santa Cruz County ...........................................................................................6 Map 4 Jurisdictional Boundaries of Ambos Nogales................................................................................13 Map 5 Planned Developments in Nogales, Arizona..................................................................................14 Map 6 Drainage from Nogales, Sonora to Nogales, Arizona....................................................................16 Map 7 Locations of Emission Sources......................................................................................................19 ii INTRODUCTION EPA has