International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 2, May 2014 2nd International Conference on Climate Change - The environmental and socio-economic response in the Southern Baltic region Szczecin, Poland, 12-15 May 2014 Conference Proceedings Editors: Andrzej Witkowski, Jan Harff and Marcus Reckermann Impressum International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publications ISSN 2198-4247 International Baltic Earth Secretariat Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH Max-Planck-Str. 1 D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany www.baltic-earth.eu [email protected] Front page photo: The beach at Międzyzdroje with its steep moraine coast, Island of Wolin, Poland (Marcus Reckermann) Organized and sponsored by University of Szczecin Baltic Earth, the successor to BALTEX Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht West Pomeranian University of Technology Government of the Maratime Academy of Szczecin Wojewodztwo Zachodniopomorskie i Scientific Conference Committee Ulrich Bathmann, Germany Jacek Batóg, Poland Artur Bejger, Poland Ryszard Borowka, Poland Achim Brauer, Germany Boris Chubaraenko, Russia Witold Cieslikiewicz, Poland Marek Dutkowski, Poland Peter Fröhle, Germany Kazimierz Furmańczyk, Poland Jan Harff, Poland Aarno Kotilainen, Finland Roman Marks, Poland Stanislaw Massel, Poland Markus Meier, Sweden Zygmund Meyer, Poland Stanislaw Musielak, Poland Irina Partasenok, Belarus Janusz Pempkowiak, Poland Hans von Storch, Germany Jürgen Sündermann, Germany Andrzej Witkowski, Poland Eduardo Zorita, Germany Organizing Committee Jan Harff, Poland Roman Marks, Poland Marcus Reckermann, Germany Hans von Storch, Germany Andrzej Witkowski, Poland Marcin Wroniecki, Poland ii Preface It is generally accepted that remarkable progress has been achieved in understanding the climate controlling system on the global scale but also that a spatial downscaling of global processes to the regional scale is required. In a first international conference on climate change in the southern Baltic Sea region, held in 2009 at Szczecin, planning agencies and local authorities expressed the need of future climate change projections which may be used for management and decision making on the regional and local level in order to help mitigate negative effects of climate change to the environment and society. The quality of the answers to the questions depends directly on the data available – records of measurements for the past and future projections as the results of climate modelling. Increasing research activities are expected regarding the cause-effect relation between greenhouse gas emissions, climate and environmental responses in the Baltic Sea basin. Therefore, and to revive the productive scientific atmosphere of the conference in 2009, it was decided to organize a follow- up conference in 2014, dealing with the climate change effects for the southern Baltic Sea region. Conference session topics are: A. Reconstructions of palaeo-environmental change: Geological proxies and numerical modelling B. Modelling of climate change: How reliable are future projections? C. Natural dynamics of the coastal zone and the socio-economic response from prehistoric to recent times D. Climate change and regional planning E. Changing Baltic Sea coasts and their sustainable protection Copernicus Symposium In addition to these scientific topics, a dedicated “Copernicus Symposium” will be part of the conference. This symposium shall honor the 500 years anniversary of Copernicus’ pioneering concept of the heliocentric system. This publication caused the “Copernican revolution” as one of the most important events in history of science. Natural scientists, historians, and socio-economists are invited to discuss Copernicus’ ingenious work, embedded into the societal environment of his time. As a result we expect generalizing answers to the question how a productive and fruitful scientific (and societal) atmosphere can be created today. This is getting increasingly relevant when designing the roof of our European house. This proceedings volume contains all extended abstracts of contributions shown at the conference. The abstracts are colour-coded according to the session, and sorted alphabetically with sessions (oral and poster). The conference is organized in the framework of Baltic Earth, the new research and outreach network in the baltic Sea region, and successor to BALTEX. The organizers wish to thank Silke Köppen for invaluable help in the preparation of the conference. Szczecin and Geesthacht, May 2014 Andrzej Witkowski, Jan Harff and Marcus Reckermann, Editors iii iv Contents Opening lectures Changing climate during the last glacial cycle (working title) Leszek Marks, PGI Warszawa ............................................................................................................. 1 Copernicus dilemma and contemporary science Karol Piasecki, University of Szczecin, Faculty of Humanities ............................................................ 3 Session A: Reconstructions of palaeo-environmental change: Geological proxies and numerical modelling A wind direction analysis for the Baltic Sea region: Is it possible to draw conclusions from mean wind statistics on extreme wind statistics? Svenja Bierstedt, Zorita E., Hünicke B. .............................................................................................. 5 The cool event about 8.2 ka ago in the Baltic Sea Basin: proxies data and paleoclimatic reconstructions Irena Borzenkova, Kuznetsov D., Sapelko T. ...................................................................................... 7 Late Glacial to Holocene environmental changes with special reference to salinity reconstructed from shallow water lagoon sediments of the southern Baltic Sea coast Sławomir Dobosz, Seddon A., Witkowski A., Kierzek A., Cedro B. ..................................................... 9 Disentangling influences on varve preservation in a 1200-year record of partially varved sediments from Lake Tiefer See (NE Germany) – A multi-proxy approach Nadine Dräger, Theuerkauf M., Hübener T., Wulf S., Kienel U., Slowinski M., Plessen B., Dulski P., Schedel R., Ott F., Lorenz S., Brauer A. ............................................................................ 10 Evolution of the Littorina Sea in the geochemical record of Holocene sediments from western Baltic Robert Kostecki ................................................................................................................................ 12 Paleogeographiс investigations in the Kaliningrad region, Russia Yuriy Kublitskiy, Subetto D., Arslanov K., Druzinina O., Skhodnov I. ................................................ 13 The development of lake sedimentation since Older Dryas in Belarus Aliaksei Novik ................................................................................................................................... 15 Linking terrestrial and marine ecosystems: Holocene land-cover changes and their effect on terrestrial carbon pools and coastal ecosystems along the Swedish Baltic coast Anneli Poska, Nielsen A.B., Björk S., Broström A., Filipsson H.L., Ghosh A., Khan M., Ning W., Åkesson C., Conley D.J. ..................................................................................................................... 17 v Session B: Modelling of climate change: How reliable are future projections? Interactions between phytoplankton blooms and environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea – a modelling study Agata Cieszyńska (Zuzewicz), Stramska M. ..................................................................................... 19 Changes of water balance elements of the Curonian Lagoon in the 21st century Darius Jakimavicius, Kriaučiūnienė J. ............................................................................................... 21 How reliable are future projections of threats from the sea level rise? Beata Kowalska, Sztobryn M. .......................................................................................................... 23 Sea level change scenarios in the Polish coast during 21st century R. Wójcik, Jakusik E., Pilarski M., Biernacik D., Marosz M., Miętus M. ........................................... 25 Session C: Natural dynamics of the coastal zone and the socio-economic response from prehistoric to recent times The Gulf Of Finland: Social and Economic Problems of St.-Petersburg in Conditions of the Natural Environment Change Irina Baykova, Kostrukova O. ........................................................................................................... 27 Water and waste management by household in terms of changes in the law Iwona Foryś, Putek-Szeląg E. ........................................................................................................... 28 Simulation of the historical ecosystem state as a reference according to the Water Framework Directive Rene Friedland, Schernewski G., Neumann T. ................................................................................. 29 A comparison of selected River-mouth systems – zones of interference between terrestrial, marine and anthropogenic impacts Jan Harff, Deng J., Osadczuk A,, Tang C,, Witkowski A., Wu J., Xia Z. .............................................. 30 The dynamics of the coastline of the Eastern Gulf of Finland: the natural processes and human activities on the natural disasters prevention Petr Leontev ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Valuation of environmental