REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES TO RADIATA PINE IN NEW ZEALAND – A CRITICAL REVIEW J.P. Maclaren Piers Maclaren & Associates Ltd Report No. 90 May 2004 FOREST AND FARM PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COOPERATIVE CONFIDENTIAL TO PARTICIPANTS OF THE FOREST & FARM PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COOPERATIVE This report was produced specifically for the Forest and Farm Plantation Management Cooperative, and has had limited peer review. It is an unpublished report, and must not be cited as a literature reference. C O N T E N T S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................7 PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................9 SCOPE ......................................................................................................................................10 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................10 THE APPROACH USED .........................................................................................................11 Quantity of Product ...............................................................................................................12 Price per Unit ........................................................................................................................13 Growing Costs.......................................................................................................................14 Land Price .............................................................................................................................14 Seedling Costs.......................................................................................................................14 Establishment Costs ..............................................................................................................14 Thinning and Pruning Costs..................................................................................................14 General Management Costs ..................................................................................................14 Rotation Age .........................................................................................................................14 Risk and Uncertainty.............................................................................................................15 DATA AVAILABILITY ..........................................................................................................16 RADIATA PINE..........................................................................................................................19 PRODUCTIVITY .....................................................................................................................19 Height Growth.......................................................................................................................19 Basal Area Growth................................................................................................................20 Volume for Top Sites ............................................................................................................21 Volume for “Typical” Sites...................................................................................................22 Summary of Volume Growth................................................................................................22 PRICE PER UNIT VOLUME...................................................................................................23 Summary of Prices ................................................................................................................23 GROWING COSTS ..................................................................................................................24 Summary of Costs .................................................................................................................24 ROTATION AGE .....................................................................................................................25 RISK..........................................................................................................................................25 Climate-related Risk..............................................................................................................25 Pests and Diseases.................................................................................................................25 Market Risks .........................................................................................................................26 Social Risks...........................................................................................................................26 Summary of Risks .................................................................................................................26 DCF ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................26 Summary of DCF ..................................................................................................................27 DISCUSSION ...........................................................................................................................27 FURTHER READING FOR RADIATA PINE........................................................................27 DOUGLAS-FIR...........................................................................................................................29 PRODUCTIVITY .....................................................................................................................29 Height Growth.......................................................................................................................29 Basal Area Growth................................................................................................................30 Volume Growth.....................................................................................................................30 PRICE PER UNIT VOLUME...................................................................................................31 Summary of Prices ................................................................................................................32 GROWING COSTS ..................................................................................................................32 Summary of Costs .................................................................................................................33 ROTATION AGE .....................................................................................................................33 RISKS........................................................................................................................................33 Climate-related Risks ............................................................................................................33 Pests and Diseases.................................................................................................................34 Market-related Risks .............................................................................................................34 Social Risks...........................................................................................................................35 Summary of Risks .................................................................................................................35 DCF ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................36 DISCUSSION ...........................................................................................................................36 FURTHER READING FOR DOUGLAS-FIR .........................................................................37 EUCALYPTS...............................................................................................................................39 PRODUCTIVITY .....................................................................................................................40 Height Growth.......................................................................................................................40 Basal Area Growth................................................................................................................41 Volume Growth.....................................................................................................................41 Log Grade Outturn ................................................................................................................42 PRICE PER UNIT VOLUME...................................................................................................43 GROWING COSTS ..................................................................................................................44 ROTATION AGE .....................................................................................................................45 RISKS........................................................................................................................................45 Climate-related Risks ............................................................................................................45 Pests and Diseases.................................................................................................................46