ARMAGEDDON AND THE PROPHETS OF DOOMSDAY Fears of the Apocalypse The Escape from Reason Millennium PAUL KURTZ s the world about to end? Are we living in the last days of civilization? Will the human species and the planet Earth Ibe engulfed in fire storms, earthquakes, floods, or be destroyed by the impact of an asteroid? As we approach the year 2000 we are surrounded by prophets of doom who pre- dict that terrible disasters await us. Obviously the year 2000 has special significance in these scenarios, for it marks the beginning of a new millennium. The year 2000 and the years soon thereafter seem to be the deadline for many end-time prophets. But we may ask: Does the new millennium start January 1, 2000 or 2001? The calendar we use begins at year 1 instead of 0 — for a zero was left out in the transition from B.C. to A.D. Thus, a century does not begin with a double-zero 2 0 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER year, but ends with it. If this is the case, the new century and mil- France would overcome their recession, unemployment would lennium begin with an (11-year, not an 00-year. be solved, the Asian and Russian economic slump would But it is not clear that 2001 is the beginning of the new become a thing of the past, and gross domestic products would millennium, because the Western world measures it by the continue to expand is prosperity gains. This scenario was one birth of Jesus Christ. But many Biblical scholars agree that we of unlimited horizons. By contrast, the bears focus on the neg- know very little if anything about him, though many believe ative: The year-2000 computer bug will wreak havoc every- that he was actually born four to six years before the year A.D. where, they warn, oil shortages will appear, either deflation If this is the case, the third millennium might already may will overcome us or inflation will re-ignite, and the Dow-Jones have begun in 1996, not in 2000! stock exchange average will plummet from 9,300 to 3,000 in The millennium is actually a human creation of our cul- a short period of time. Here the pessimists prevail. Following ture, an arbitrary date in eternity. Why it should be of special the scenario of the Dutch Tulip bubble bust, crowd psychol- significance is muddled, aside from its religious meaning or ogy rules the day. as the public is engulfed first by the fervor of cultural bias. speculative binge and then by pessimistic forecasts of doom. Most non-Christian cultures in the world do not measure One may ask: whose prophecy of the future will prevail—the the calendar by the date of Christ's birth. The Chinese year in optimists, pessimists, or neither? 1998 is 4696, the Hebrew calendar 5760. For the Muslims, Another key source of present doomsday scenarios is sci- the calendar begins in 622 A.D., when Muhammad went from ence fiction, in which the future is unusually bleak: either Big Mecca to Medina, and 1998 is actually the year 1420. It is Brother will emerge, or complete anarchy will prevail. Science 6236 according to the ancient Egyptian calendar, 2749 for the projects doomsday asteroids or comets striking the earth. Deep Babylonian, 2544 for the Buddhist, 5119 for the Mayan great Impact and Armageddon, two Hollywood movies, arouse fear cycle, and 2753 according to the old Roman calendar. and terror, and Jurassic Park brings back the dinosaurs to The Gregorian calendar was first initiated by Pope Gregory devour us. XIII in 1582, replacing the Roman Julian calendar of Julius Probably the most frightening secular prognostications art- Caesar, which was ten days different from today's. After the environmental scenarios of runaway population growth and decline of Rome, Britain celebrated New Year's Eve on devastating ecological pollution. December 25th—until William the Conqueror changed New Many of these forecasts are not end-of-the-world predic- Year's to January 1. 1066, the date of his coronation. Britain tions, but they illustrate the difficulties of making long-range subsequently changed it to March 25th, and later to accord extrapolations. Of course there are real dangers—from envi- with other countries. The French desired Easter Sunday to be ronmental damage to nuclear war—and we need to be aware New Year's Day. For the Chinese, New Year's Day is at the end of them and to take rational precautions; for example, global of February.' warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. I am surely not Thus, January 1, 2000 or 2001 is really a meaningless non- denying that there are genuine problems that need to be seri- event—an expression of Western socio-cultural prejudice, of ously addressed. But not too long ago we were warned that the no special significance in the nature of things. world would be overtaken by famine, that hundreds of mil- lions—even billions—of people would starve to death, and that the cities and countrysides would be teeming with swollen Secular Doomsday Prophecies bellies. Contrary to expectations, India and other impover- Nonetheless, there is a perennial concern for the future. ished countries have managed to increase their food produc- Human beings always wish to peer ahead and know what will tion, and while there arc famines in Africa, the predicted ensue tomorrow or next year or in the next century. Many of worldwide famine has not occurred. these interests are based on expectations of a better and more Demographers told us only a decade ago that population promising world. But there are often predictions of gloom, growth would increase exponentially and that there was no and great apprehension. way to stop it. By the year 2000, they said, there would be Three kinds of forecasts may be distinguished among the seven billion inhabitants on the earth, and by 2020, 1 5 billion Doomsday prophecies. First, secular predictions. We recently or more. But, in many parts of the world, there has been a sig- enjoyed a period of great economic optimism, as stock mar- nificant decrease in the rate of population growth; and the kets, at least in Europe and America, soared. The bulls dashed extreme projections for 2020 are most likely exaggerated. forward with rosy forecasts. There was sustained technological Some ecologists maintained only twenty years ago that by scientific expansion. Some people even predicted a long boom 1980 the atmosphere would be so polluted that we would in which the economic cycle had been overcome. This was based on new industries: telecommunications and the infor- Paul Kurtz is Chairman of the Committee for the Scientific mation revolution, biogenelic research, and space technolo- Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal and Professor Emeritus gies. Under this scenario the bulls predicted that Germany and of Philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janujry/feoruary 1999 21 need to wear gas masks year-round—not even in Los Angeles change the face of society. No doubt we will continue to expe- has this occurred! They warned that many of our lakes and rience recessions, possibly even depressions, in the future. waterways would be so despoiled that all of their fish and plant Marx predicted armageddon for the capitalist system. Millions life would be destroyed. The Great Lakes, they said, would be of pessimists are still waiting for that to occur. They think totally dead. President Lyndon Johnson in 1968 visited the every recession will lead to a worldwide economic collapse. Buffalo River in western New York and ignited it with a Interestingly, George Orwell's 1984 has arrived and passed and match. Massive efforts to clean it up followed. There has been our freedoms are still intact, much to everyone's surprise. a noticeable increase in the fish harvest in Lake Erie, and the Overhanging all of this is the sword of Damocles—nuclear lake seems to be coming back. Ecologists have warned that we energy. Nuclear fears engulfed large sectors of society. would deplete our natural resources and run out of oil, gas, Anything related to radiation was considered diabolical. In and other fossil fuels in the near future. In the long run they many countries the public shrinks in terror at the thought of are probably correct, but new resources have been discovered the opening of new nuclear power plants. The greatest fear of and new sources of energy developed. all is the fear of a thermonuclear holocaust. We are admon- A frenzied phobia of the unknown surrounds the additives ished on all sides that death stares us in the face and that some and chemical wastes of modern technological society. There is miscalculation would inevitably trigger a worldwide nuclear fear of cancer-causing agents; everything from fluoride to war. The results, we were told, will be a nuclear winter and the sugar has been claimed to be noxious. near extinction of all life on this planet. This was the Age of We have been told by successive Cassandras that the immi- Anxiety par excellence. nent collapse of major banks would bring down the entire Pessimists become angry at realists who think that civiliza- world financial system, that galloping inflation was uncontrol- tion and the human species are likely to muddle through lable, and thai we were on the verge ol a depression thai would periodic crises and mini-crises but still survive these end-of- 2 2 ianuary/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the-world forecasts. I am only advising that we place them in seven years of terrible tribulation will soon befall mankind.