Power Begins at Home: Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases Power Begins at Home: 1 Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases Power Begins at Home: Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases Commissioned by The Pew Charitable Trusts January 12, 2017 By Jeffrey Marqusee, Craig Schultz and Dorothy Robyn Power Begins at Home: 2 Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases Table of Contents List of Figures .....................................................................................................................ii List of Tables ......................................................................................................................iii List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................vi I Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 II Challenges ............................................................................................................... 3 II.1 Vulnerability of Defense Installations .........................................................................................................4 II.2 Data on DoD Power Outages ..................................................................................................................6 III Current Approach: Standalone Backup Generators ............................................... 8 III.1 How Installations Acquire and Use Standalone Generators ......................................................................8 III.2 Advantages of Standalone Generators as a Strategy for Energy Security .................................................9 III.3 Limitations of Standalone Generators as a Strategy for Energy Security ...................................................9 III.4 Overall Cost of Standalone Generators ..................................................................................................12 IV A Resilient Alternative to Standalone Backup Generators: Microgrids ............... 13 IV.1 Triple-Play Appeal of Microgrids.............................................................................................................13 IV.2 Microgrids versus Standalone Generators: Non-Cost Criteria ................................................................15 IV.3 Microgrids versus Standalone Generators: Comparison of Costs ..........................................................16 IV.4 Microgrids: Significant Value, Many Opportunities ..................................................................................22 IV.5 Path to Microgrid Implementation ..........................................................................................................22 IV.6 Barriers to Implementation ....................................................................................................................23 V Role of Renewables .............................................................................................. 25 V.1 Role of Renewables ..............................................................................................................................25 V.2 The Services’ Renewable Energy Initiatives ............................................................................................26 VI Energy Efficiency and Security .............................................................................. 28 VI.1 DoD’s Built Infrastructure Energy Needs ................................................................................................28 VI.2 How Efficient is DoD? ............................................................................................................................29 VI.3 Meeting DoD’s Efficiency Potential .........................................................................................................32 VII Value of Energy Security ........................................................................................ 35 VII.1 Should DoD Put a Value on Energy Security? ........................................................................................35 VII.2 How Much Energy Security Should DoD Buy? .......................................................................................37 VIII Findings .................................................................................................................. 40 Appendix A Analytic Methods ......................................................................................... 42 Appendix B Business Case Inputs .................................................................................. 44 Appendix C Detailed Case Study Results ...................................................................... 48 Authors ............................................................................................................................. 53 Power Begins at Home: i Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases List of Figures Figure 1. Percentage of US Utilities that Experience 3 or More Outages a Year that are Classified as a Major Event Day (MED) ...................................................................................................................3 Figure 2. Reliability of Utilities that Serve Major Military Bases. ..........................................................................5 Figure 3. Number of Outages at U.S. Military Bases as a Function of Duration (Hours) From 2012 Through 2014 ....................................................................................................................................6 Figure 4. Current Paradigm of Small Building-Tied, Standalone Generators .....................................................15 Figure 5. Microgrid with Larger Networked Generators ...................................................................................15 Figure 6. Top to Bottom Sequencing of Power Volumes on an Hourly Basis in the Test Cases .........................19 Figure 7. The Annual Net Cost of Protecting each Kilowatt of Critical Load .....................................................20 Figure 8. Largest Source of Microgrid Savings: Lower Fixed Annual O&M Costs .............................................21 Figure 9. Extended Protection with 5 MW of Configured PV ............................................................................25 Figure 10. Sources of DoD’s energy to operate bases.......................................................................................28 Figure 11. DoD’s Building Portfolio as a Function of the Size of Buildings ..........................................................28 Figure 12. Annual Average Energy Reduction over the Last Ten Years. ..............................................................29 Figure 13. Comparison of Energy Use Intensity in 2003 and Today. ...................................................................29 Figure 14. Total Square Footage of DoD Portfolio in the United States by CBECS Building Type and Service .....................................................................................................................................30 Figure 15. Comparison of DoD’s Actual Energy Use Intensity and what it would be if it Performed as Well as Commercial Buildings in 2012. ............................................................................................31 Figure 16. Total Square Footage of GSA Portfolio in the United States by CBECS Building Type. .......................31 Figure 17. The Percent of Electricity Consumption Captured by Advanced Metering System in 2015. ...............32 Figure 18. Value of Lost Load (VOLL) in $/kW Versus Time in Hours .................................................................37 Figure 19. A Hypothetical Annual Outage Frequency up to 8 Hours. .................................................................38 Figure 20. A Hypothetical Annual Outage Frequency up to a Week. ..................................................................38 Figure 21. Comparison of Estimates of an Energy Security Asset’s Economic Benefit ($/kW) and the Cost of a Standalone Generator as a Function of the Duration in Days of Protection Required for a 20-Year Lifecycle. ...................................................................................................................39 Power Begins at Home: ii Assured Energy for U.S. Military Bases List of Tables Table 1. Example of the Diversity in Age, Manufacturer, and Size of Diesel Generators at a Military Installation .......................................................................................................................................8 Table 2. Generator Sizing vs. Building Electricity Demand at Mid-sized Military Installation ............................10 Table 3. Ten Largest DoD FAC Title Categories by Square Footage Mapped to CBECS Building Types.........30 Table 4. Summary of Standalone Generators and Microgrid Technical Performance .....................................40 Table A-1. Electric Utility Rate Categories Modeled: Example for Mid-Atlantic/Northeast .................................42 Table B-1. Main Inputs for Business Case Analysis ..........................................................................................44 Table C-1. Status Quo Versus All-Diesel