UNCLASSIFIED Asymmetric Operations Working Group Ambiguous Threats and External Influences in the Baltic States Phase 2: Assessing the Threat November 2015 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. Disclaimer: The information contained herein is not current U.S. doctrine or policy and is not meant to supersede doctrine, commander’s guidance, or established unit standard operating procedures. Examine and use the information in light of your mission, the operational environment, the Law of Armed Conflict, and other situational factors. This document does not constitute the provision of additional information or the approval of additional information upon request. Copyright Notice: This document may contain copyrighted information. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................................................................2 Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................................................3 The Baltic States are not Northeast European Versions of Crimea ...............................................................................4 STRATEGIC POSTURE ...................................................................................................................................................................7 Russia’s Operative Assumptions about the World and its Role .......................................................................................7 Russia’s View of Itself ........................................................................................................................................................7 Russia’s View of the World and the United States .......................................................................................................8 The Primary Strategic Objectives and Means of Russian Foreign Policy......................................................................9 Reestablish Russia as a Great Power............................................................................................................................10 Promote a Multipolar Global Order ................................................................................................................................10 Insulate and Strengthen Russian Influence in the Eurasian Sphere .......................................................................12 Field Research Observations ................................................................................................................................................14 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................14 ENERGY SECURITY ......................................................................................................................................................................17 Determining Energy Security ...............................................................................................................................................18 Energy Dependency ..........................................................................................................................................................18 Diversification of Import Sources ..................................................................................................................................18 Energy Mix .....................................................................................................................................................................19 Electricity Generation and Usage .................................................................................................................................20 Energy Profiles ...................................................................................................................................................................20 The Political Dimensions of Energy .....................................................................................................................................21 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................23 ECONOMY ......................................................................................................................................................................................24 Economic Circumstances of Russian Compatriots ..........................................................................................................25 Trade and Investment Relationships ...................................................................................................................................26 Field Research Observations ................................................................................................................................................27 INFORMATION ..............................................................................................................................................................................29 Media Consumption ................................................................................................................................................................29 Portrayal of the Baltic States ...............................................................................................................................................30 “Old Europe” and the EU .......................................................................................................................................................32 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED The United States and NATO................................................................................................................................................32 Field Research Observations ................................................................................................................................................33 SOCIETY AND POLITICS .............................................................................................................................................................35 Compatriot Policy and Politics in Estonia ..........................................................................................................................37 Compatriot Policy and Politics in Latvia ............................................................................................................................38 Compatriot Policy and Politics in Lithuania .......................................................................................................................40 Citizenship ................................................................................................................................................................................41 Language Rights ......................................................................................................................................................................41 A Lack of Separatist Sentiment............................................................................................................................................42 Field Research Observations ................................................................................................................................................42 MILITARY .......................................................................................................................................................................................46 Military Dynamics of the Baltic Region ..............................................................................................................................46 Russia – Defense Policy ..................................................................................................................................................46 Russia – Military Capabilities .........................................................................................................................................47 Russia – Aggression Short of War .................................................................................................................................48 The Baltic States and NATO – Defense Policy ............................................................................................................50 The Baltic States and NATO – Military Capabilities ..................................................................................................50 The Baltic States and NATO – Aggression Short of War ..........................................................................................51 Field Research Observations ................................................................................................................................................53 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................................57