DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT & PLANING, FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEOSCIENCES, DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Use of Mobile Phone Data for Planning a Road Network: Application to the Country of Senegal Thesis Report Yihong Wang June 2015 Thesis Author Yihong Wang BSc Civil Engineering MSc student Transport & Planning track Delft University of Technology Graduation Committee Prof.dr.ir. Erik de Romph (chair) Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology Dr.ir. Gonçalo H. A. Correia (daily supervisor) Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology Dr.ir. Bruno F. Santos (external supervisor) Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Delft University of Technology Ir. Paul Wiggenraad (coordinator) Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology Table of Contents List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ I List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... II List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. III Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ VI Summary ....................................................................................................................................... VII 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and Objectives .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Introduction of the Country and Its Spatial Information ................................................. 2 1.3 Introduction of the Original Mobile Phone Datasets ....................................................... 7 1.4 The Outline of the Remaining Chapters ........................................................................... 8 2. Literature Overview and Problem Description ...................................................................... 10 2.1 The Conceptual Framework ........................................................................................... 10 2.2 Origin-Destination Estimation Using Mobile Phone Traces ........................................... 11 2.3 Traditional Ways of Modeling Origin-Destination Distribution ..................................... 13 2.4 The Relation between Telecommunication and Travel ................................................. 15 2.5 Road Network Design Problem ...................................................................................... 16 3. Research Questions and Methodology ................................................................................. 18 3.1 Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 18 3.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 19 4. Exploring Spatial Information and Mobile Phone Datasets .................................................. 22 4.1 Network Analysis ............................................................................................................ 22 4.2 Aggregation and Analysis of the Mobile Phone Interaction Data.................................. 24 4.3 The Estimation of Mobility Patterns Using Mobile Phone Traces ................................. 27 4.3.1 Primitive Estimation to Trace the Trajectories of Each User .................................. 28 4.3.2 A Filtering Algorithm to Find the OD Information .................................................. 29 4.3.3 Sampling Rate ......................................................................................................... 33 4.3.4 Sample and Population ........................................................................................... 34 4.3.5 Results and Analysis of the Estimated Mobility Patterns ....................................... 35 4.4 Conclusions..................................................................................................................... 39 5. Formulating and Estimating Gravity Models ......................................................................... 40 5.1 The Traditional Gravity Model Based on Population ..................................................... 40 5.2 Exploring the Relation between Telecommunication and Travel Empirically ............... 44 5.3 The New Gravity Model Based on Mobile Phone Interaction ....................................... 47 5.4 The Comparison between the Two Gravity Models ...................................................... 52 5.5 Conclusions..................................................................................................................... 55 6. Road Network Planning ......................................................................................................... 57 6.1 Planning Approach ......................................................................................................... 57 6.2 Optimization Model ....................................................................................................... 62 6.3 Solution Algorithm ......................................................................................................... 63 6.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 64 6.4.1 Results for a Single Efficiency Objective ....................................................................... 64 6.4.2 Results for a Single Equity Objective ............................................................................ 66 6.4.3 Results for Efficiency and Equity Objectives ................................................................ 66 6.5 Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................................... 67 6.5.1 Sensitivity to a Budget Reduction ................................................................................. 67 6.5.2 Sensitivity to the Selection of the Gravity Model......................................................... 69 6.6 Conclusions..................................................................................................................... 70 7. Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................................... 71 7.1 Conclusions..................................................................................................................... 71 7.1.1 The State-of-the-Practice Contributions ...................................................................... 71 7.1.2 The State-of-the-Art Contributions .............................................................................. 72 7.2 Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 73 Reference List ................................................................................................................................ 75 Appendix A. More influencing factors on mobility in Senegal ..................................................... 79 List of Abbreviations AATR Autonomous Agency of Road Work of Senegal ANSD National Agency of Statistics and Demography of Senegal CDR Call Detail Records D4D ‘Data for Development Senegal’ GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GPS Global Positioning System OD Origin-Destination OSM Open Street Map RMSE Root Mean Square Error I List of Tables Table 1 a random example of the content of Dataset 1 ................................................................. 7 Table 2 a random example of the content of Dataset 3 ................................................................. 8 Table 3 the components of the filtering algorithm ...................................................................... 31 Table 4 the ‘before-after’ comparison of average travel demand ............................................... 39 Table 5 the estimated values of parameters and adjusted R-squared of the traditional gravity model ............................................................................................................................................ 42 Table 6 the estimated values of parameters and adjusted R-squared of the traditional gravity model for shorter trips .................................................................................................................. 43 Table 7 the estimated values of parameters and adjusted R-squared of the traditional gravity model for longer trips ................................................................................................................... 44 Table 8 the estimated values of parameters and adjusted R-squared of the new gravity model with the exponential parameter ................................................................................................... 49 Table 9 the estimated values of parameters and adjusted R-squared of the new gravity model with the power parameter ........................................................................................................... 49 Table 10 the estimated values of parameters