The Feasibility of Establishing A Trading Centre at Mseleni Consolidated Report: Situational Analysis & Final Report July 2010 KwaZulu-Natal Department of Economic Development and Tourism Report prepared by: The Feasibility of Establishing a Trading Centre at Mseleni Consolidated Report: Situational Analysis & Final Report – Report prepared by Graham Muller Associates TABLE OF CONTENTS Situational Analysis ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Project alignment with the uMhlabuyalingana Local Municipality IDP and the LED strategy ...................... 5 Overview of municipality as per IDP .............................................................................................................. 7 Assessment of the LED environment ............................................................................................................. 8 Assessment of the Proposed Site & Alternatives......................................................................................... 10 Retail catchment assessment ...................................................................................................................... 13 Demographics of the catchment area ......................................................................................................... 17 Assessment of existing and planned retail facilities .................................................................................... 17 Retail Demand Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 20 Environmental Assessment .......................................................................................................................... 24 Location ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 The Development Proposal .......................................................................................................................... 26 Brief Description of the Affected Environment ........................................................................................... 26 Legal Framework for the Basic Environmental Assessment Process ........................................................... 28 Environmental Issues ................................................................................................................................... 29 Conclusions - environmental issues ............................................................................................................. 31 Assessment of Community Perceptions (Survey Report) .............................................................................. 33 Data Analysis: Questionnaire to Mseleni Households ............................................................................... 33 The Survey Area and Sample Size ................................................................................................................ 33 Assessment of Commuter Needs ................................................................................................................. 37 Additional Issues Isolated in the Survey Report .......................................................................................... 40 Sourcing private sector involvement ........................................................................................................... 43 Assessment of municipal capacity ............................................................................................................... 44 Operational Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 45 Tenant selection ........................................................................................................................................... 46 Feasibility Study .............................................................................................................................................. 47 Project Scope ............................................................................................................................................... 47 Project Structure .......................................................................................................................................... 47 Page 2 of 102 The Feasibility of Establishing a Trading Centre at Mseleni Consolidated Report: Situational Analysis & Final Report – Report prepared by Graham Muller Associates Sources of Data ............................................................................................................................................ 48 Formulation of a Strategic Approach ........................................................................................................... 49 Developing the Trading Centre Model ......................................................................................................... 50 Understanding the Two Business Models .................................................................................................... 52 Detailed Site Assessment ............................................................................................................................. 53 Social and Economic Assessment ................................................................................................................ 60 Potential economic impact .......................................................................................................................... 61 SMME participation ..................................................................................................................................... 64 Stakeholder identification ............................................................................................................................ 64 Operational Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 65 Sources of Inputs ......................................................................................................................................... 67 Tenant selection ........................................................................................................................................... 68 Administration and Management ................................................................................................................ 70 Maintenance and Sustainability................................................................................................................... 70 Assessment and Finalization of Model ........................................................................................................ 71 Revenue and Operational Cost Assumptions .............................................................................................. 73 Funding Sources ........................................................................................................................................... 74 Institutional Structure .................................................................................................................................. 79 Risks and Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................... 81 Petrol Station Feasibility .............................................................................................................................. 86 Retail Centre Feasibility – With Investor Financing ..................................................................................... 87 Retail Centre Feasibility – With Bond Financing and Full Construction Costs ............................................. 89 Summary of Findings.................................................................................................................................... 91 APPENDIX A ..................................................................................................................................................... 92 Assessment of existing retail facilities in the demarcated market area surrounding Mseleni.................... 92 APPENDIX B ..................................................................................................................................................... 96 Mseleni questionnaire for trading centre – November 2009 ...................................................................... 96 APPENDIX C ..................................................................................................................................................... 99 Guidelines for the development of a sustainable maintenance and management programme for the proposed trading centre at Mseleni ............................................................................................................ 99 Page 3 of 102 The Feasibility of Establishing a Trading Centre at Mseleni Consolidated Report: Situational Analysis & Final Report – Report prepared by Graham Muller Associates Situational Analysis Introduction The object of this situational analysis is to determine the size of the potential market