i Delivering on Net Zero: Scottish Agriculture A report for WWF Scotland from the Organic Policy, Business and Research Consultancy Authors: Nic Lampkin, Laurence Smith, Katrin Padel NOVEMBER 2019 ii Contents Executive summary............................................................................................................................................ iii 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Portfolio of mitigation measures ............................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Measuring greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential .............................................. 3 2.3 Emission reduction measures to be analysed ................................................................................... 5 A. Improved nitrogen fertiliser use ............................................................................................................... 5 2.3.1 M1 (E1, FBC): Improving synthetic N utilisation ........................................................................ 5 2.3.2 M2 (E6): Controlled release fertilisers (CRF) ............................................................................. 6 2.3.3 M3 (E10): Precision applications to crops ................................................................................. 6 2.3.4 M4 (NP29, NP30): Urea replacement and urease inhibitor ...................................................... 7 2.3.5 M5 (NP32): Phosphorus fertilisers ............................................................................................ 7 B. Improved use and integration of organic manures and slurries ............................................................... 7 2.3.6 M6 (E2, FBC): Improving organic N planning ............................................................................. 7 2.3.7 M7 (E3): Low emission manure and slurry spreading ............................................................... 8 2.3.8 M8 (E4): Shifting autumn manure applications to spring ......................................................... 8 C. Improved soil management ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.9 M9 (NP6): Cultivate land for crops in spring rather than autumn ............................................ 9 2.3.10 M10 (NP7, FL6, MMAN): Reduced or minimum tillage ............................................................. 9 2.3.11 M11 (E11, NP8, NP15): Loosening compacted soils and preventing soil compaction ............ 10 2.3.12 M12: Improved drainage for reducing frequency of waterlogging ......................................... 10 2.3.13 M13 (NP28): Nitrification inhibitors ........................................................................................ 10 D. Improved crop selection and management ............................................................................................ 11 2.3.14 M14 (E5): Use of catch and cover crops .................................................................................. 11 2.3.15 M15 (E7): Plant varieties with improved N-use efficiency ...................................................... 11 2.3.16 M16 (E8, FBC): Grain legumes in crop rotations ..................................................................... 11 2.3.17 M17 (E9, FBC): Legume-grass mixtures (reducing requirement for synthetic N) ................... 11 E. Improved mechanisation ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.3.18 M18 (E24): Fuel efficiency of mobile machinery ..................................................................... 12 F. Improved livestock management and genetics ....................................................................................... 12 2.3.19 M19 (E12, FBC): Improving ruminant nutrition ....................................................................... 13 2.3.20 M20 (E13): Probiotic feed additive .......................................................................................... 13 2.3.21 M21 (E14): Nitrate feed additive ............................................................................................. 13 2.3.22 M22 (E15. FBC): High fat diet for ruminants (dietary lipids) ................................................... 13 2.3.23 M23: 3-Nitrooxypropanol (3NOP) ........................................................................................... 14 2.3.24 M24 (E16, FBC): Improving cattle health ................................................................................. 14 2.3.25 M25 (E17. FBC): Improving sheep health ................................................................................ 14 2.3.26 M26 (E18, FBC): Selection for balanced breeding goals .......................................................... 14 i 2.3.27 M27: Improved grazing management of cattle and sheep ..................................................... 15 2.3.28 M28 (FL11): Precision and multiple phase feeding ................................................................. 16 G. Improved manure management ............................................................................................................. 16 2.3.29 M29 (E19): Slurry acidification ................................................................................................ 16 2.3.30 M30 (MMFB): Slurry store covering ........................................................................................ 16 2.3.31 M31 (E20-E22): Anaerobic digestion ....................................................................................... 17 2.3.32 M32: Slurry aeration ................................................................................................................ 18 2.3.33 M33: Composting/covering of farmyard manures and other solid organic wastes................ 18 H. Improved systems design ........................................................................................................................ 19 2.3.34 M34: Conservation agriculture ................................................................................................ 20 2.3.35 M35: Organic farming .............................................................................................................. 20 2.3.36 M36 Pasture-fed livestock production .................................................................................... 20 2.3.37 M37 (E6.3): Agroforestry ......................................................................................................... 21 I. Reducing food losses and food waste ...................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Summary of 100% abatement potential of each measure.............................................................. 24 2.5 Impacts on other private and public benefits ................................................................................. 29 3 Applicability, adoption requirements, barriers, timescales and sequencing .......................................... 31 4 Agricultural implications .......................................................................................................................... 38 5 Discussion of assumptions and results .................................................................................................... 48 6 Policy options .......................................................................................................................................... 52 6.1 Farming system payments for innovative approaches (whole or part farm) .................................. 52 6.2 Input reduction and improved soil management............................................................................ 52 6.3 Regulatory and fiscal options .......................................................................................................... 53 6.4 Carbon, nitrogen and sustainability auditing .................................................................................. 54 6.5 Training, advice and skills ................................................................................................................ 54 6.6 Improved greenhouse gas monitoring and statistics ...................................................................... 55 6.7 Targeted research ............................................................................................................................ 55 6.8 Dietary change and food waste reduction ...................................................................................... 56 6.9 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 57 7 Glossary of terms ..................................................................................................................................... 58 ii Executive summary The aim of this study was to identify whether, how and at what cost agricultural GHG emissions in Scotland could be reduced by 35% by 2045. In 2017, Scottish agricultural GHG emissions were estimated to be 7.6 Mt CO2e making the 35% target 2.7 Mt CO2e. Building on