CSIA Occasional Paper Series A Primer for the Nuclear Age Edited by Graham T Allison, Jr. Robert D. Black will Albert Carnesale Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Robert P. Beschel, Jr. Copyright © 1990 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College University Press of America Inc. 4720 Boston Way Lanham, Maryland 20706 3 Henrietta Street London WC2E 8LU England All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America British Cataloging in Publication Information Available Co-published by arrangement with the Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A Primer for the nuclear age / Graham T. Allison, Jr.... [et-al.], editors. p. cm. , (CSIA occasional paper ; no. 6) 1. United States-Military policy. 2. Nuclear weapons-- United States. 3. Nuclear warfare. 4. Nuclear disarmament-United States. I. Allison, Graham T. II. Series. UA23.P69 1990 355'.033573--dc20 89-70587 CIP ISBN 0-8191-7700-8 (alk. paper) ISBN 0-8191-7701-6 (pbk.: alk. paper) The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences- Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984. CONTENTS Preface Assessing the Danger 1. Paths to Superpower Nuclear War Robert P. Beschel, Jr. 2. Nuclear Crises David A. Welch Nuclear Weapons: Their Effects, Control, and Historical Development 3. The Effects of Nuclear Detonations and Nuclear War Steve Fetter 4. Command and Control of Nuclear Forces Ashton B. Carter 5. Technology and the Evolution of Nuclear Weapons and Forces Ivan Oelrich Nuclear Doctrine and Force Structure 6. The Evolution of American Nuclear Doctrine Peter D. Feaver 7. The Evolution of Soviet Nuclear Doctrine Andrew Bennett 8. Calculating Force Levels and Planning Requirements Lynn Page Whittaker 9. The Historical Development of the U.S.- Soviet Nuclear Balance David Blair Domestic Influences on Nuclear Weapons Policy 10. Nuclear Weapons and Congress Graham T. Allison, Jr. 11. American Public Opinion Towards Nuclear Weapons and National Security Thomas W. Graham 12. Soviet National Security Decision- Making Kurt Campbell and Jeffrey W. Legro Beyond the Superpowers: Nuclear Weapons in the International Arena 13. Nuclear Weapons and NATO Graham T. Allison, Jr. 14. The Spread of Nulcear Weapons and Nuclear Terrorism Thomas W. Graham, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., and Roger Smith About the Editors and Authors Ackowledgments PREFACE Several years ago, we in Harvard's Avoiding Nuclear War Project became concerned about the lack of institutional memory on nuclear issues in the American government. In conversations with former senior officials, it was obvious that many of them shared this concern. The majority had found themselves unprepared for the tasks confronting them once they assumed office, and they felt overwhelmed by the large amount of information they needed to master in a very short time. During the course of our interviews, many of those former officials expressed a need for short background papers on various aspects of the nuclear age, believing that such a collection would have enabled them to obtain information quickly on a variety of important topics. We designed and distributed a briefing book to help meet this need for newly appointed officials' in the Bush administration. Later, a number of readers suggested that the material would be of interest to a broader audience who wanted to gain a better understanding of nuclear issues. This resulting Occasional Paper contains fourteen chapters covering a number of these issues, designed to provide a broad overview in a short period of time. The chapters are largely descriptive in nature, although a few contain specific policy recommendations. Their general format is intended to provide a brief survey of a given topic and to summarize its most important features. These essays need not be read sequentially. Each contains a section, "For Further Reading," for those who wish to explore that topic in greater detail. The first two chapters, under the heading "Assessing the Danger," seek to give the reader a realistic assessment of the risks and dangers of nuclear war. The first essay discusses paths that might lead to nuclear war. It emphasizes that the most dangerous path would result from a combination of accident and inadvertence along with the high stakes and limited time for decision making that would exist during a political crisis. The second essay describes instances in which the use of nuclear weapons was contemplated by the United States. It concludes with some observations made by Robert Kennedy after the Cuban missile crisis and a discussion of the applicability of these lessons for today. The next set of essays focuses upon nuclear weapons themselves-their effects, the systems and procedures for their use, and their historical development. Chapter 3 assesses the potential results of three scenarios: the detonation of a single nuclear weapon over Washington, D.C., a "limited" nuclear exchange, and an all-out nuclear war. It concludes that under a worst- case scenario, prompt American fatalities could range from 100 to 160 million. Chapter 4 discusses the command, control, and communications network governing American nuclear operations. It emphasizes that this system is generally robust and survivable, although new technologies in the hands of an adversary could complicate its ability to function effectively in the future. Further attention should also be devoted to developing plans and procedures for controlling escalation and terminating nuclear operations quickly with a minimum of damage after a limited nuclear exchange. Chapter 5 traces the technical evolution of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. It maintains that, barring unanticipated advances in strategic defense, future developments in weapons and delivery are likely to follow a slower and more predictable course. The next set of essays focuses upon broader questions of strategy and force structure. Chapters 6 and 7 provide an overview of American and Soviet doctrine, respectively. Chapter 6 argues that American doctrine displays an evolution towards a more flexible targeting strategy; a similar evolution has occurred away from attacking Soviet urban- industrial centers and towards striking military targets. Chapter 7 maintains that Soviet nuclear doctrine is driven by a set of geographic constraints, technical capabilities, historical experiences, bureaucratic institutions, and political and cultural values that are very different from those that shape American nuclear doctrine. It also shows that there can be important and unpredictable differences between Soviet declaratory policy and actual operations. Chapter 8 addresses how force levels and planning requirements are calculated in the United States; it argues that decisions about the number and mix of weapons in the American arsenal have often been based upon political and historical considerations in addition to strategic requirements. Chapter 9 catalogs the historical evolution of the nuclear balance and the factors that have influenced its development. The next three chapters focus on domestic political influences upon nuclear weapons policy. Chapter 10 addresses the role Congress has played in shaping American nuclear doctrine and forces. It argues that executive inattentiveness to Congress's constitutionally mandated role in foreign and defense policy has often led to internecine warfare among the branches of the U.S. government. Chapter 11 looks at public attitudes towards a number of questions relating to nuclear weapons, nuclear policy, defense spending, the Soviet Union, and the NATO alliance. Chapter 12 focuses upon Soviet national security decision-making. It maintains that the Soviet leadership is an integrated political-military body, where political authority is dominant but where the professional military retains an important influence. The role of institutions and individuals varies within and between leaderships according to the issue under consideration. The final two essays go beyond the immediate context of superpower relations to address the role of nuclear weapons on the broader stage of world politics. Chapter 13 discusses the central issues shaping the future of the NATO alliance, such as the role of nuclear weapons in preserving the peace in Europe, the nature of the American nuclear guarantee, NATO's strategy of flexible response, what the allies need from the United States, the inherent contradictions within the alliance, and the threats and opportunities posed by General Secretary Gorbachev. The final chapter addresses the problem of nuclear proliferation. It argues that the United States has learned a great deal about the type of non-proliferation strategies that can be successful, and that recent trends in this area have worked to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. -Graham T Allison, Jr. Robert D. Blackwill Albert Carnesale Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Robert E Beschel,Jr. Assessing the Danger Chapter 1 PATHS TO SUPERPOWER Nuclear War by Robert P. Beschel, Jr. In the late 1980s, the existence of a lengthy tradition of nuclear non-use, robust American deterrent forces, and a more moderate Soviet foreign policy made it difficult to envision how a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union could ever occur. Although the odds of such a conflict taking place are small, it is important to guard against complacency. On the eve of World War I, senior British officials noted that Anglo- German relations had not