The Indian Ocean Region A Framework for Australian Policy Options The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 1 1/12/2014 3:42:51 PM The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 2 1/12/2014 3:42:51 PM Contents Foreword........................................................................................................................5 Introduction...................................................................................................................7 Chapter 1 Proposed Australian National Objectives in the Indian Ocean Region...................11 Chapter 2 Strategic Objectives of the United States in the Indian Ocean Region..................25 Chapter 3 Strategic Objectives of China in the Indian Ocean Region......................................41 Chapter 4 Strategic Objectives of India in the Indian Ocean Region.......................................57 Chapter 5 Strategic Objectives of Japan in the Indian Ocean Region.....................................73 Chapter 6 Strategic Objectives of France in the Indian Ocean Region....................................81 FDI: Donors and Sponsors .......................................................................................101 FDI wishes to thank all the individuals and organisations who have so generously contributed their time and expertise to this study. The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 3 1/12/2014 3:42:51 PM 4 Landmark Study – The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 4 1/12/2014 3:42:52 PM Foreword Foreword Much of Australia’s external focus has centred on the Pacific, South-East and Eastern Asia. With its developing wealth, increasing population, evolving trade and shipping capabilities and expanding geographic, political and security significance, however, the Indian Ocean and its littoral states will play an increasingly important role in Australia’s future. This strategic importance will only continue to grow in the years ahead because it fronts much of our coastline, including our key minerals and energy regions. It is the location of key sea lines of communication (SLOCs) that are crucial to the global economy. Approximately 35 per cent of all seaborne traded oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz alone, of which over 85 per cent goes to Japan, China, South Korea and India – all major trading partners of Australia and drivers of global economic growth. The consequences of a prolonged disruption to the SLOCs and chokepoints of the Indian Ocean in terms of economic wellbeing and security would be catastrophic. The Indian Ocean Region is also one of the least secure regions in the world. The waters of the Indian Ocean are surrounded by mainly poor countries and contain some of the world’s most difficult security challenges, including nuclear, non-conventional (piracy, smuggling, transnational crime, poverty, water, food and environmental) issues, and a potentially emerging security dilemma between India and China. At the same time, it is also the part of the globe that is least developed in terms of its co-operative mechanisms and Australia, in partnership with other states in the region, should strive to make organisations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) more truly inclusive and effective. This Landmark Study seeks to determine what Australia wants from this region and concentrates on six countries: Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. It is a work in progress that will be regularly updated. I commend the Study as the time for a considered analysis of Australia’s objectives and policy options in the Indian Ocean Region has never been more appropriate. Major General the Honourable Michael Jeffery AC, AO, (Mil), CVO MC (retd) Chairman, Future Directions International (Former Governor General of Australia) The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options 5 Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 5 1/12/2014 3:42:52 PM 6 Landmark Study – The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 6 1/12/2014 3:42:52 PM Introduction Introduction As Future Directions International noted in its 2012 publication, Indian Ocean: A Sea of Uncertainty- The Indian Ocean is critical to global trade and food and energy security. Resources increasingly are being exploited by its littoral and island states. It is also a stage for the pursuit of global strategic and regional military and security interests. As the region emerges to become one of the twenty-first century’s leading strategic theatres, it will once again be at the crossroads of global trade, economic growth and potential crises. It is a region in which instability and conflict can quickly arise from imprecise border delineations, internal conflicts, issues of energy and resource security and changing national interests. Over one-third of Australia’s coastline borders the Indian Ocean. Security of lines of trade and the development of both on-shore and off-shore assets are essential to Australia’s economy and development. The Indian Ocean and its littoral and island states are poised to play an increasingly important role in Australia’s future. For all of the above reasons, a detailed knowledge of the evolving nature of the Indian Ocean and its littoral states is essential. Defining the Indian Ocean Region In comparison to the world’s other oceans, defining the exact boundaries of the Indian Ocean has been something of an imprecise science and has been a long-standing source of disagreement for hydrographic experts. The Indian Ocean’s northern, north-western and south-western extremities are now universally agreed upon: the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal and Cape Agulhas, respectively. With the Southern Ocean now receiving widespread acknowledgment as a discreet body of water located between the Antarctic coast and latitude 60°S – and therefore quite separate to the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans – the southern boundary of the Indian Ocean can also be considered to be defined. Some disagreement remains, however, over the eastern extent of the Indian Ocean; a situation complicated by whether maritime boundaries are best defined by major undersea features, ocean currents or geographical co-ordinates. While all non-Australian authorities include all the waters lying between Australia’s southern coastline and latitude 60°S, some place Bass Strait within the Indian Ocean, while others place it in the Pacific. To the north, the Indian Ocean is considered to extend to the western limits of the Arafura Sea, although some see it reaching as far east as Torres Strait. Equally, just how far the Indian Ocean reaches into the waters of the Indonesian archipelago is open to question, although the Strait of Malacca is almost universally agreed upon as a starting point. With that in mind, and drawing wherever possible on the definitions given by the International Hydrographic Organisation and a general consensus of experts in the field of maritime boundaries, FDI delimits the Indian Ocean by the points below: The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options 7 Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 7 1/12/2014 3:42:52 PM In addition to Australia, FDI’s Indian Ocean studies include the following littoral and island states: Bahrain Kenya Seychelles Bangladesh Kuwait Singapore Burma/Myanmar Madagascar Somalia Comoros Malaysia South Africa Djibouti Maldives Sri Lanka Egypt Mauritius Sudan Eritrea Mozambique Tanzania France1 Oman Thailand India Pakistan Timor-Leste Indonesia Qatar United Arab Emirates Iran Saudi Arabia Yemen 1 In respect of the départments of La Réunion and Mayotte, the Îles Éparses (the islands of Bassas da India, Île Europa, Îles Glorieuses, Île Juan de Nova and Île Tromelin) and the southernmost islands of the French Southern and Antarctic Lands (Les Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises): the Crozet and Kerguelen archipelagoes and Îles Saint-Paul and Amsterdam. 8 The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE PAGE SPREAD_2014_UPDATED BLUE.indd 8 1/12/2014 3:42:52 PM The following states, loosely defined as adjacent to, or dependent on, the Indian Ocean are included as and when events in them directly affect Australia or one or more of the states listed previously: Afghanistan Israel Rwanda Bhutan Jordan South Sudan Botswana Lesotho Swaziland Burundi Malawi Uganda Ethiopia Nepal Zambia Iraq The Palestinian Territories Zimbabwe Having defined the parameters of the region, and some of the reasons for its growing importance, this study will now examine some of the options by which Australia may gain a deeper engagement with the region, together with the strategic objectives of five major powers in the region: the United States, China, India, Japan and France. ***** The Indian Ocean Region - A Framework for Australian Policy Options 9 Landmark Study - Future Directions International IOF_SINGLE