Project Number: DTZ 1103 An Interactive Qualifying Project Report: Submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science By Joshua Nitso _____________________________ Kevin Woods _____________________________ Submitted April 23, 2012 Approved by Professor Dalin Tang, Project Advisor _____________________________________________ I ABSTRACT The history of the stock market and selected companies within the pharmaceutical industry were studied using the Internet and Gordon Library as primary resources. An eight-week simulation was conducted on the stock market using different trading techniques that were analyzed and compared for effectiveness. Using these strategies helped develop a basic understanding of the investing world and the relative success of different investment methods. II TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... II TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. III TABLE OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................V TABLE OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. VII 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 2 1.2 GENERAL PLAN ................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 MARKET ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 4 1.4 HISTORY OF STOCKS AND FINACIAL TRADING ....................................................... 5 1.4.1 BEGININGS HISTORY OF THE NYSE ...................................................................... 5 1.4.2 INDUSTRIAL AGE ....................................................................................................... 6 1.4.3 ELECTRONIC AGE ...................................................................................................... 7 1.4.4 TODAY .......................................................................................................................... 8 2. STRATEGIES........................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 DAY TRADING ................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 SHORT-TERM SWING TRADING .................................................................................. 11 2.2.1 TREND FOLLOWING ................................................................................................ 11 2.2.2 COUNTERTREND ...................................................................................................... 12 2.3 POSITION TRADING ........................................................................................................ 12 2.4 CAN SLIM .......................................................................................................................... 13 3. COMMON TOOLS .................................................................................................................. 14 3.1 MOVING AVERAGES ...................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE .................................................................................. 15 3.1.2 EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE ..................................................................... 15 3.2 MACD ................................................................................................................................. 16 3.3 STOCHASTIC OSCILLATORS ........................................................................................ 17 4. HISTORY OF AMERICAN PHARMACEUTACAL INDUSTRY ........................................ 19 4.1 PRE-WORLD WAR I ......................................................................................................... 19 4.2 WORLD WAR .................................................................................................................... 19 4.3 WORLD WAR II ................................................................................................................ 20 4.4 1970’S – TODAY ............................................................................................................... 21 5. COMPANY HISTORIES FOR LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS ........................................... 22 5.1 PFIZER INCORPORATED (PFE) ..................................................................................... 22 5.2 MERCK & COMPANY INCORPORATED (MRK) ......................................................... 23 5.3 JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ) .......................................................................................... 24 5.4 ELI LILLY AND COMPANY (LLY) ................................................................................ 26 5.5 BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED (BAX) ............................................... 27 6. SIMULATION 1: LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS ................................................................ 29 6.2 WEEK 1 (FEB. 7 – FEB. 12) .............................................................................................. 29 6.1.1 MONEY MARKET ACCOUNT ................................................................................. 29 6.1.2 BIG TICKET INDEX ................................................................................................... 30 6.1.3 MUTUAL FUNDS ....................................................................................................... 30 III 6.2 WEEK 2 (FEB. 13 – FEB. 19) ............................................................................................ 31 6.3 WEEK 3 (FEB.20 – FEB. 26) ............................................................................................. 32 6.4 WEEKS 4-6 (FEB. 27 – MAR.18) ...................................................................................... 33 6.5 WEEK 7 (MAR 19.-MAR.25) ............................................................................................ 34 6.6 WEEK 8 (MAR 26 – APR.1) .............................................................................................. 35 6.7 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................... 36 7. SIMULATION 2: COUNTERTRENDING ............................................................................. 39 7.1 WEEK 1 (FEB. 7 – FEB. 12) .............................................................................................. 39 7.2 WEEK 2 (FEB. 13 –FEB. 19) ............................................................................................. 47 7.3 WEEK 3 (FEB. 20 – FEB 26) ............................................................................................. 52 7.4 WEEK 4-6 (FEB. 27 – MAR. 18) ....................................................................................... 56 7.5 WEEK 7 (MAR. 19 – MAR. 25) ........................................................................................ 59 7.6 WEEK 8 (MAR. 26 – APR. 1) ............................................................................................ 62 7.7 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................... 64 8. SIMULATION 3: TREND FOLLOWING .............................................................................. 67 8.1 WEEK 1 (FEB. 7 – FEB.12) ............................................................................................... 67 8.2 WEEK 2 (FEB. 13 – FEB. 19) ............................................................................................ 75 8.3 WEEK 3 (FEB. 20 – FEB 26) ............................................................................................. 84 8.4 WEEKS 4-6 (FEB. 27 – MAR.18) ...................................................................................... 89 8.5 WEEK 7 (MAR.19 – MAR.25) .......................................................................................... 92 8.6 WEEK 8 (MAR.26 – APR. 1) ............................................................................................. 93 8.7 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................... 96 9. CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................................... 102 9.1 FINAL COMPARISON OF STRATEGIES ..................................................................... 102 9.2 WHAT WE LEARNED .................................................................................................... 107 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 108 IV TABLE OF FIGURES* Figure 3.01: ABT, Weekly 1-Year