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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that ad- dress the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. WORKFORCE PLANNING IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY A Retrospective CHARLES NEMFAKOS, BERNARD D. ROSTKER, RAYMOND E. CONLEY, STEPHANIE YOUNG, WILLIAM A. WILLIAMS, JEFFREY ENGSTROM, BARBARA BICKSLER, SARA BETH ELSON, JOSEPH JENKINS, LIANNE KENNEDY-BOUDALI, DONALD TEMPLE C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE WORKFORCE PLANNING IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY A Retrospective CHARLES NEMFAKOS, BERNARD D. ROSTKER, RAYMOND E. CONLEY, STEPHANIE YOUNG, WILLIAM A. WILLIAMS, JEFFREY ENGSTROM, BARBARA BICKSLER, SARA BETH ELSON, JOSEPH JENKINS, LIANNE KENNEDY-BOUDALI, DONALD TEMPLE Prepared for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8078-3 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commerical use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface Soon after the events of September 11, 2001, the intelligence community began a decade-long effort to reconstitute a workforce that was downsized considerably fol- lowing the end of the Cold War, resulting in a loss not only of personnel but also of critical capability. Early efforts to rebuild this workforce focused primarily on getting more people on board to respond to growing near-term demands related to the terrorist threat. Before long, however, the community faced criticism from congressional over- sight committees about the rapid and what to some seemed chaotic growth of the intel- ligence workforce. The need to address these concerns motivated efforts to develop and apply a more strategic approach to workforce planning in the intelligence community. The need to make far-reaching changes in a workforce with a wide diversity of ele- ments proved challenging, but the chief human capital officer in the Office of the Direc- tor of National Intelligence made considerable headway in identifying community-wide workforce issues and tools to facilitate more-effective workforce planning in the future. As the Obama administration enters its second term and the potential for budget cuts looms, it is an opportune time to examine the progress made within the intelligence community in workforce planning. This report chronicles intelligence community efforts over more than half a decade to improve community-wide workforce planning and management. It should be of interest to anyone concerned with workforce planning in the U.S. intelligence community. Beyond the intelligence community, the need to manage human resources in today’s environment of constrained resources suggests that the lessons learned and workforce-planning tools described in this report should have applicability across the federal government to anyone who manages a large human capital portfolio. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center and the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. iii iv Workforce Planning in the Intelligence Community: A Retrospective For more information on the RAND Forces and Resources Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/frp.html or contact the director (contact infor- mation is provided on the web page). For more information on the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/intel.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ........................................................................................xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Intelligence Community Reform and Workforce Planning .................................. 3 Intelligence Community Rebuilding ................................................................ 3 Role of the Director of National Intelligence in Workforce Planning ........................... 7 Parallels in the Evolutions of the Defense and Intelligence Structures .......................... 8 Workforce Planning in Intelligence Community Integration ...................................10 CHAPTER THREE Strategic Workforce Planning .....................................................................13 Workforce Planning in the Intelligence Community .............................................16 Characteristics of the Intelligence Workforce .....................................................16 CHAPTER FOUR Understanding Supply ..............................................................................19 Civilian Employment Plan ...........................................................................19 Joint Duty Program .................................................................................. 24 Accounting for Core Contractors ...................................................................25 Military Workforce .................................................................................. 28 Summary ...............................................................................................31 CHAPTER FIVE Forecasting Demand ................................................................................33 Workforce Demand Forecasting Methods .........................................................33 v vi Workforce Planning in the Intelligence Community: A Retrospective Aligning Resources with National Priorities ...................................................... 38 Base Force Concept .................................................................................. 42 Summary .............................................................................................