Toward an Enhanced Strategic Policy in the Philippines EDITED BY ARIES A. ARUGAY HERMAN JOSEPH S. KRAFT PUBLISHED BY University of the Philippines Center for Integrative and Development Studies Diliman, Quezon City First Printing, 2020 UP CIDS No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, without written permission from the publishers. Recommended Entry: Towards an enhanced strategic policy in the Philippines / edited by Aries A. Arugay, Herman Joseph S. Kraft. -- Quezon City : University of the Philippines, Center for Integrative Studies,[2020],©2020. pages ; cm ISBN 978-971-742-141-4 1. Philippines -- Economic policy. 2. Philippines -- Foreign economic relations. 2. Philippines -- Foreign policy. 3. International economic relations. 4. National Security -- Philippines. I. Arugay, Aries A. II. Kraft, Herman Joseph S. II. Title. 338.9599 HF1599 P020200166 Editors: Aries A. Arugay and Herman Joseph S. Kraft Copy Editors: Alexander F. Villafania and Edelynne Mae R. Escartin Layout and Cover design: Ericson Caguete Printed in the Philippines UP CIDS has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ______________________________________ i Foreword Stefan Jost ____________________________________________ iii Teresa S. Encarnacion Tadem _____________________________v List of Abbreviations ___________________________________ ix About the Contributors ________________________________ xiii Introduction The Strategic Outlook of the Philippines: “Situation Normal, Still Muddling Through” Herman Joseph S. Kraft __________________________________1 Maritime Security The South China Sea and East China Sea Disputes: Juxtapositions and Implications for the Philippines Jaime B. Naval __________________________________ 13 A Framework to Strengthen Philippine Institutional Capacity for Maritime Security Cooperation Dianne Faye Despi _______________________________ 39 Prospects for Trilateral Cooperation: The Philippines, Australia, and Japan Mark Bryan Manantan ___________________________ 61 TABLE OF CONTENTS Political Economic Developments Constructing Major Power Identity: China’s Discourses on the Belt and Road Initiative and Policy Insights for the Philippines Enrico V. Gloria _________________________________ 87 Organized Crime, Illicit Economies and the Philippine-China Relations Under the Duterte Administration Marielle Y. Marcaida ____________________________ 107 Impact of Developments in Science and Technology Countering the Communist Party of China’s ‘Three Warfares’: A Whole-of-Nation Approach Robin Lucas and Don Stanley Dalisay _____________ 135 Development of Military Industries in Developing Nations Exploring the Philippine-Japan Defense Industry and Technology Partnership: Prospects and Challenges Santiago Juditho Emmanuel L. Castillo ___________ 159 On Strategic and Conscientious Policy-Making: Remembering the Life & Work of Aileen S.P. Baviera, Ph. D. (1959-2020) Ramon D. Bandong, Jr., Marvin H. Bernardo, and Maria Nikka U. Garriga ________________________ 189 Conclusion: Future Strategic Policy Directions of the Philippines Aries A. Arugay _____________________________________ 197 Bibliography ________________________________________ 209 TOWARD AN ENHANCED STRATEGIC POLICY IN THE PHILIPPINES i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The completion of a book, especially an edited volume, is the work of many hands. That most of the papers in this volume are part of the 4th Katipunan Conference held on 15-16 August 2019 multiplies the effort even more. The editors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Maria Thaemar Tana, Ariel C. Lopez, Raisa E. Lumampao, Charmaine M. Willoughby, and Maria Carmina B. Acuna in chairing the various panels of the Conference. Their role is not merely that of ensuring the flow in the discussion. They also ensured that putting together a record of the discussion would not be an impossible task. We would also like to thank those who agreed to review the papers in this volume, namely: Jesse M. Pascasio, Rommel Jude Ong, Julio Amador III, Aaron Jed Rabena, Gideon Lasco, Charmaine M. Willoughby, Maria Carmina B. Acuna, and Francis Rico C. Domingo. Anyone involved in the academic world knows how onerous and potentially frustrating the work of a reviewer can be. The support given by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung to the completion of this book cannot be overstated. Particular mention should be made of the unstinting support given by Stefan Jost, the representative of KAS Office Philippines, and Ronna Villanueva, Program Manager of KAS Philippines. Finally, we would like to acknowledge the work done by the program staff of the SSP-UPCIDS. The efforts of Marvin Hamor Bernardo, Maria Nikka U. Garriga, and Ramon D. Bandong, Jr. in seeing this project through from start to finish have ensured its successful completion. TOWARD AN ENHANCED STRATEGIC POLICY IN THE PHILIPPINES iii FOREWORD Greetings from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines! he Katipunan Conference has been considered in the past years Tas a well-known debate platform centered on issues involving prominent foreign and security policies in the region. The constant exchange between scientists and politicians is deemed significant for foreign and security policy analysis because it aids in the assessment of the consequences of recent developments in the region for the Philippines. This interaction provides a timely opportunity for the realization and development of the country’s strategies. It is also through the Katipunan Conference that a cross- generational dialogue between skilled experts and a new generation of scientists and decision-makers is made possible, which, in turn, is considered imperative to ensure the competency in creating security and foreign policies. This publication titled Toward an Enhanced Strategic Policy in the Philippines contains the fundamental results of the 4th Katipunan Conference. It consists of a remarkable diversity of current issues. Some of the many impressive topics tackled range from maritime security to economic developments, as well as the multilateral relationships to the analysis of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Emphasis must be placed on the repercussion for the Philippines brought about by local and regional problems. Concurrently, built on an open analysis of existing developments and peril, it is important to establish a specific agenda for future strategic analysis and to develop iv STRATEGIC STUDIES PROGRAM concrete policy approaches in cooperation with decision-makers, and at the very least be able to tender a justified and compact assistance. The previous years have proven how essential it is to work rigidly with both friends and partners in the area of international relations. The challenges encountered in the international system have become more compelling. Together with the intensified challenges and long- term consequences brought about by COVID-19, states, governments, and parliaments have to face these growing and complex obstacles on their own. Hence, dialogue forums such as the Katipunan Conference serve as vital instruments in the exchange of both national and international experiences and opinions towards the creation of concrete political concepts. We at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Philippines are delighted with the result of our partnership with the Strategic Studies Program of the University of the Philippines Center for Integrative and Development Studies (UP CIDS) because the Katipunan Conference embodies an integral part of our work in the Philippines in the area of foreign and security policies. I extend my appreciation and acknowledgement to the Philippine experts from the academe, government, and think-tanks who have made significant contributions through their research on strategic policy, security studies, and Philippine foreign relations. Furthermore, the KAS is honored to publish this edited volume in cooperation with the UP CIDS under the guidance of Prof. Herman Joseph S. Kraft and Prof. Aries A. Arugay. Prof. Dr. Stefan Jost Country Director Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Philippines TOWARD AN ENHANCED STRATEGIC POLICY IN THE PHILIPPINES v FOREWORD stablished in 1986 by then president of the University of the EPhilippines (UP) Edgardo J. Angara, the UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies (UP CIDS) is the policy unit of UP. It was envisioned “to harness the University’s expertise and resources towards addressing complex problems of national significance” (UP CIDS 2019, p. 5). This aim emanated from Executive Order No. 9 which created the Center mandating that it: “Shall be the University’s structure for integrative and collaborative research on all areas of national concerns such as science and technology policies, development strategies, the socio-cultural consequences of modernization, political dynamics, and regional and international relations.” (Executive Order No. 9, 1985). The UP CIDS has since embarked on projects as well as programs to achieve this mandate. In August 2019, UP CIDS re-established programs which were set up during the time of Dr. Maria Cynthia Rose Banzon Bautista when she was the UP CIDS executive director from 1992 to 2000, as well as created new ones. UP CIDS currently has 12 programs, which are divided among