SECONd Quarter 2019 INTERNATIONAL REPORT CONSTRUCTION MARKET INTELLIGENCE INDEPENDENT CONSULTANTS, LOCAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE, GLOBAL NETWORK The strength of Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB), the Each RLB office contributes to the global intelligence largest independent and most geographically by providing current insights into the local conditions prevalent construction cost consultancy of its kind and trends that impact the construction industry in the world, is that it has the foremost construction within that region. Information that is gathered and intelligence available to it. disseminated by each local office includes: RLB collects and collates current construction data § Forecast Tender Price Index and forecast trends on a global, regional, country, § RLB Construction Market Activity Cycle city and sector basis. The RLB International Report, § Key building type cost ranges in local currencies published half-yearly, provides a snapshot of construction market intelligence provided by the RLB network of offices around the globe. TENDER PRICE INDEX BUILDING COST CONSTRUCTION MARKET RLB’s Tender Price Index RLB’s Building Cost Ranges INTELLIGENCE (TPI) showcases the historical highlighted within each regional A summary of Construction Market and forecast movements in intelligence page are based on Intelligence is provided by each construction cost inflation/ actual project construction costs. region highlighting the issues that escalation on an annual basis. Building costs are provided in are impacting the construction The TPI annual rate represents an local currencies per m2, with industry and providing key insights overall forecast of the movement the exception of Oslo and into current construction price of construction costs for the Moscow whose building costs movements. industry as a whole within the key are expressed in Euros and North cities of RLB’s network. America, where all costs are in local currency per ft2. RLB MARKET ACTIVITY CYCLE RELATIVITY INDEX KEY GLOBAL DATA The RLB Market Activity Cycle Using TPI data and cost modelling, Key country and regional economic focusses on seven key sectors RLB provides a general cost data is summarised within the Key within the overall construction comparison for building costs Global Data tables describing the economy. Local RLB directors between locations. The Relativity historical and projected economic assess the current position of each Index ranks each city in respect conditions, within which the sector within the market activity of other locations within the RLB construction industry functions. cycle for each respective city. network of offices. Currently forty nine are included in the index. RLB publishes key industry intelligence publications throughout each year. For more detailed sector, city, country and regional information that is published by RLB, please review our regional or country specific publications which can be found within the publications section of rLB.com. Cover: Coorparoo Square, QLD, Australia Architects: Conrad Gargett 2 Rider Levett Bucknall | International Report – Second Quarter 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Global Summary 5 RLB Global Tender Price Index 6 Global Construction Cost Relativity Index 8 RLB Market Activity Cycle 10 Regional Intelligence Africa 12 Middle East 14 North Asia 17 Southeast Asia 20 Australia 23 New Zealand 25 North America 29 United Kingdom 31 Ireland & Mainland Europe 34 Key Global Economic Data 36 Each coloured region represents a section within the Regional Intelligence pages of this report Rider Levett Bucknall | International Report – Second Quarter 2019 3 Sunshine Coast University Hospital, QLD Architect: SCA Architects (JV Architectus and Rice Daubney Architects) 4 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE GLOBAL SUMMARY Over the last 10 years, since the forecast to grow by 2.3% in past number of years, however GFC and the start of the great 2019, down from 2.9% in 2018. most regions appear to be on the recession, the global construction Many experts are anticipating rise, most with more sectors in sector has seen strong growth. a construction slowdown in the the growth phase of the market However, it would appear that second half of 2019 primarily due activity cycle. growth during 2019 and into 2020 to the fading impact of the tax Australia is seeing the effects of may be hindered by a combination cut stimulus and an overall the government’s emphasis on of several global uncertainties, tightening in monetary policy. rail, road, airport and other major according to a survey of RLB’s Overall, construction growth is infrastructure-related projects that network of offices. starting to see some signs of a commenced during 2018 or are slowdown when compared to the The key common global themes scheduled for commencement in last two years. that RLB directors have identified 2019. Much of Australia’s future as impacting construction growth Construction is steadily improving construction growth will be in their regions are: in all Canadian Provinces. Oil & Gas funded by increased government capital expenditure has started to spending on public facilities § A slowing of the global see a slight pick-up with current oil and infrastructure projects. The economy prices ranging from USD 55 to USD slowdown in the commencement § More conservative central bank 65 per barrel. of multilevel residential decisions resulting in tighter developments is a concern for the The UK is still debating the process credit conditions industry across the country. of leaving the European Union, § Ongoing trade tensions with Brexit decision making still Middle Eastern countries are between the US and China stalled more than two years after pinning their hopes on oil prices the UK referendum. This economic remaining in the USD 55 to 65 a § Uncertainty in the terms of the uncertainty is expected to have a barrel range, and if that’s the case, United Kingdom’s ‘Brexit’. negative impact on construction 2019 will see strong growth in The IMF revised their 2019 growth activity in 2019 through a hold construction activity. The Middle projections in the WEO January on capital expenditure and the East’s construction sector has 2019 Report to 3.5%, down from potential departure of corporate shown a strengthening during 2018 3.7% in October 2018 and 3.9% in and manufacturing bases out of and is forecast to continue this January 2018, which is flowing the UK. However, this may have trend into 2019. through to general business positive flow-on effects for EU Both South Africa and Nigeria, confidence levels. countries. Africa’s two largest economies, Despite the global threats India overtook China and the US are forecast to experience slow identified above, the general with the highest direct foreign or limited growth in 2019, with perception of the global investment in 2018 and its perhaps Nigeria performing construction economy remains economy is forecast to grow by better than South Africa. A positive. more than 7% in 2019. The Indian shortage of skilled workers both in construction and manufacturing RLB’s current construction market construction sector is set to see will continue to stymie South activity cycle highlights this strong growth in 2019 and 2020. Africa’s economic growth for 2019. sentiment. This edition has seen a The Chinese government has Depressed minerals & commodity further movement of sectors from started to show more tolerance prices continue to hold back the the trough zone to the mid and to its credit growth and to inject South African construction sector peak zones of the activity cycle. money into the economy. Such with business confidence at a near One third of sectors are now in stimulus is expected to lead to all-time low. the peak zone, with 48% in the steady growth in the near future, mid zone. benefitting the construction Expedient resolution of global trade tensions and an agreed Construction activity in the US industry within China and its Brexit solution should see positive is forecast to increase in 2019 territories. sentiment returning to the industry over 2018 levels. Commercial The construction industry in in 2019, maintaining the current and infrastructure construction is Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, strength of the industry. gradually improving in all areas. Indonesia and other Asian The US economy is currently countries has been mixed over the Rider Levett Bucknall | International Report – Second Quarter 2019 5 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE RLB TENDER PRICE INDEX Across the RLB global network of 2019. Most cities in the region are The United States is seeing a offices, construction escalation forecasting a slowing in escalation softening in escalation in 2019 forecasts appear to be running across 2019 with the exception and beyond, seemingly due to the at two speeds in 2019 and of Hong Kong and Macau. This plateauing of the economy. The 2020. Globally, 42% of offices mirrors the anticipated fall in GDP fall in escalation predicted in our are forecasting escalation to be growth across the region in 2019 last report from 2018 levels has higher in 2019 than 2018, with 45% and 2020. not been as steep and the current forecasting lower levels. forecasts for 2019 are higher than Southeast Asian cities have been previously reported. Canadian Since the release of the Q4 2018 recording low levels of cost growth construction cost growth appears RLB International Report, 16 cities over the past few years and we are to have peaked in 2018 and is have revised their 2019 TPI annual anticipating a gradual increasing predicted to fall from those levels percentage forecasts upwards, of escalation rates during 2019. between 2019 and 2022. while 19 were revised down. Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta are forecasting the highest rate of TPI Uncertainty still clouds the UK, The IMF’s current forecast for growth, with 3% for 2019. especially London, which appears global inflation is 3.6% for 2019 to be impacted the most by the and 3.5% in 2020. Twenty-nine Both Melbourne and Sydney have Brexit uncertainty. The 2019 cities within the group are revised their escalation forecasts escalation forecast for London forecasting annual uplifts in for 2019, up by 0.5% respectively.