JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE Research The headlines are unsettling... OIL CHINA FED FINANCIAL MARKET But despite elevated risks, we see continued expansion • Domestic strength outweighing global weakness • Non-manufacturing growth outweighing manufacturing & energy slowdown • Employment and consumer confidence high, wages set to lift off U.S. RECESSION PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW 40%40% 35% 30%30% 25% 20%20% 15% 10%10% 5% 0%0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 + U.S property clock shows momentum across sectors: Markets tightening, rents growing, construction rising MULTIFAMILY Peaking Falling HOTEL, INDUSTRIAL Market Market CBD OFFICE Rising Bottoming Market Market SUBURBAN OFFICE RETAIL Source: JLL Research Structural shifts will be as important as the economic ones INNOVATION CYCLE DEMOGRAPHICS CYCLE COLLABORATION VIBRANCY WALKABILITY ACCESSIBILITY URBANIZATION LIVABILITY Millennial concentrations push the edges of cities Millennials increasingly concentrate along the fringes of urban cores San Francisco Los Angeles Chicago Washington, DC Philadelphia Boston Source: JLL Research Urban regeneration – old becomes new Tech has been driving massive levels of mixed-use regeneration and redevelopment South Lake Union (Seattle) Mid-Market (San Francisco) Playa Vista (Los Angeles) Seaholm (Austin) River North & River West (Chicago) Seaport District (Boston) Source: JLL Research Traditional transit-oriented development Traditional TOD more viable in many markets, while successful TODs are maturing in others City Creek Center (Salt Lake City) Marina Heights (Phoenix) State Farm (Dallas) Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor (Northern VA) Hudson Waterfront (New Jersey) Assembly Square (Boston) Source: JLL Research JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE Office Peak Boston Jobs Low interest rates Investor demand Replacement cost Asset pricing Rents Product Why? Balance and momentum... Top 10 #2 in the U.S. London 1 6 Shanghai Silicon Valley 2 7 New York #5 Dublin 3 8 Sydney in the world Bangalore 4 9 Beijing Boston 5 10 San Francisco Boston sales volume 2016 transaction volume forecast 2016 will decline... $5B $12B 10% $10B 9% $8B 8% Cap Rate $6B 7% $4B 6% Transaction Volume Transaction $2B 5% $0 4% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Our product is old, it’s time to build Deliveries 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-Today 10.3M 8.7M .75M 3M square feet square feet square feet square feet Average Sale Price Replacement (2015) Cost $750 $800 per square foot per square foot Favored product types Urban Partial Interest Transit-Oriented Development Fortress Suburban Industrial Life Science JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE Residential 2015 – Record year for Metro Boston sales volume $3,000 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 2015 average price per unit over $400,000 $2,500 -2007 average price per unit $208,638 Total number of sales: 32 $2,000 56% of sales Class A properties Sources: JLL, Real Capital Analytics $1,500 VOLUME IN MILLIONS $1,000 $500 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Boston rental deliveries MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 2015 was a record year with 2,411 units delivered in 8 properties $3,000 Deliveries will decline from 2016 – 2018 but will remain above historic averages $2,500 2,411 1,995 $2,000 1,800 1,559 $1,500 1,248 $1,000 867 $500 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 BEDFORD BURLINGTON WAKEFIELD WOBURN Transit-oriented rent growth SWAMPSCOTTsince 2011 STONEHAM LYNN SAUGUS WINCHESTER ORANGE LINE NORTH MELROSE OAK GROVE RED LINE NORTH +5.9% MEDFORD MALDEN NAHANTBLUE LINE ARLINGTON +5.4% REVERE WONDERLAND EVERETT +4.1% ALEWIFE CHELSEA BELMONT SOMERVILLE WINTHROP WESTON GREEN LINE WATERTOWN LECHMERE CAMBRIDGE Logan International +4.7% BOWDOIN Airport NEWTON CONTINUED RENT GROWTH BOSTON COLLEGE RIVERSIDE CLEVELAND CIRCLE Overall Metro Boston rent HEATH DUDLEY SQ. growth in 2015 – 4.1% BROOKLINE BOSTON WELLESLEY Transit-oriented FOREST HILLS development continues to ORANGE LINE SOUTH flourish along T-lines ASHMONT NEEDHAM +4.8% Outer-Urban rents draft MATTAPAN off of Downtown pricing DEDHAM as urbanization continues QUINCY throughout Metro Boston MILTON DOVER HINGHAM RED LINE SOUTH WESTWOOD Sources: MLS “Boston””, NAR BRAINTREE +4.2% WEYMOUTH BRAINTREE NORWOOD Norwood MEDFIELD Memorial CANTON RANDOLPH Airport JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE Retail Ink Block 400 residential units 75,000 square feet of retail Assembly Row 450 residential units OUTLETS 800,000 square feet of office 500,000 square feet of retail JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE Stephanie Pollack Secretary & Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Transportation JLL CAPITAL MARKETS 2016 BOSTON PERSPECTIVE !"#$%&'"()$*+,-.+! /".#,)$*+#+!"#$%),+0*.$12+#$3+42%,.( !-#,+5'"6%+&'"+!'3#2+#$3+!-.+78,8". 9::+!"#16%+,'+;"'<,- =>+9#$8#"2+=?@A !"#$%&'($)*+&,(-.($/,&0#1( !"#$*&'($2*+&,(-.($ 3+,&0#1(4$5.6#,7-8$-($ ("#$%9!:$2'$;2<2.=$("#$ %9!:$2('#>;$'&$("-($2($ 1-.$'#,?#$-'$-$"2="$ +#,;&,*-.1#@$15'(&*#,A &,2#.(#6$(,-.'2($-=#.18 B !"#$"%&'()"*+,"-'./',"0"1',"23"45/67+867"96:7;:< 7)B)$*+C."&'"(#$1.D+E.3+:)$. !"# !$# !%# !!# !&# '"# '$# '%# '!# '&# &"# '(!-./0), '()* '($" '($' &(* &()"1.20), &()' !"#$"%&'()*"#+,&'%()-".(%/()" -66=7:<"96:7;:<">7/6&6,56 &($% 01"*,2#)3*"#$"*2/,345,3" &(*) /,'3.'6 +(' 3450), +()% +($) +($& )"(, )"()$6780), )"()+ )"($! ))($ ))(+ 9:;0), ))()! C ))($* ))(*" Why Performance Matters: Usage vs. Planned Capacity BRAINTREE BRANCH 8-8:30 AM, WEEKDAYS - MARCH AND APRIL 2015 8,000 7,000 The dashed line shows 6,000 planned capacity,assuming 6.5 trains per half-hour, 5,000 even distribution of passengers and even headways 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 NORTHBOUND PASSENGER VOLUME SOUTHBOUND PASSENGER VOLUME !E0L4M!NOEMPL!PQ+QPRP:OCFPL!+ 0LQ+!SP+FT!0 MBTA TOD in Boston MassDOT/MBTA Completed Projects Parcel Developer Commercial GSF Residential Units Affordable Units Parcel 1- The Victor (North Station) Simpson Housing 17,000 286 38 CANA Parcel 3 Warren Green LLC 0 17 3 North Bank Parcel EF Education First (Efekta House) 300,000 0 0 CA/T Parcel 7 Boston Public Market Association 28,000 0 0 Parcel 24 N- One Greenway (Chinatown) Parcel 24, LLC- ACDC 9,000 312 95 JPNDC, Urban Edge, Hyde Square Task Force, 225 Centre Street (Jackson Square) 60,000 438 291 Mitchell Parcel 1A- Avenir (North Station) Trinity Financial 30,000 241 17 TOTAL 444,000 1,294 444 MassDOT/MBTA Projects in Development Parcel Developer Commercial GSF Residential Units Affordable Units Parcel 7- Fenway Center (Yawkey Station) Meredith 50000 416 54 Copley Place Associates LLC (Simon Property Copley Place Expansion 114,000 542 71 Group) John Hancock Garage / Back Bay Station (2) Boston Properties 800000 350 46 Parcels 12 & 15- Back Bay ADG Scotia II LLC (Weiner/Samuels) 245,100 230 30 Parcel 13- Hynes Station The Peebles Company 120,000 173 23 Parcel 9- Haymarket Normandy Realty Partners 135,000 0 0 Parcel 24 S- 88 Hudson Street (Chinatown) Parcel 24, LLC- ACDC 0 51 51 Parcel U- Forest Hills Urbanica 25,000 120 60 Bartlett Yard- Roxbury Nuestra 118,000 313 241 Parcel 25- Mission Hill MHNHS 305500 88 40 TOTAL 1,912,600 2,283 616 MassDOT/MBTA Projects in Construction Parcel Developer Commercial GSF Residential Units Affordable Units One Canal- Parcels 2A, 2B and 2C AIMCO (Trinity Financial) 20,000 320 42 75 Amory Street, Jackson Square 75 Amory Apartments, LLC 1,015 39 39 Parcel 1B- North Station Related Beal 156,000 239 239 Nashua Street Residences Avalon Bay 3575 503 54 TOTAL 180,590 1,101 374 GRAND TOTAL 2,537,190 4,678 1,434 6 MASSACHUSETTS REALTY GROUP REAL ESTATE CONSULTANTS TO THE MBTA 4#J.+'&+E.#J+C"'K.",2N C#"1.J+@@0 L'",-+P$3W+T'%,'$W+F#%%#1-8%.,,% F#%%QO!+OK.$+&'"+T8%)$.%%+E.#J+P%,#,.+OKK'",8$),2+ %-''IE!$2'$'##X2.=$+,&+&'->'$ ;&,$("#$;##$'2*+>#$'->#$&;$ -++,&<2*-(#>8$B@]^T$'`5-,#$ ;##($&;$>-.6$>&1-(#6$-($("#$ 1&,.#,$&;$G-.&?#,$D(,##($-.6$ V,&''$D(,##($2.$("#$H&,("$J.6$ .#2="[&,"&&6$ &;$("#$V2(8$&;$ 9&'(&.c$ 033),)'$#J+M$&'"(#,)'$ :66,#''d$1&,.#,$&;$G-.&?#,$D(,##($-.6$V,&''$D(,##(' N-.6$:,#-d$B@]^T$eZA DY LY/$L#>#-'#$I-(#d$H&?#*[#,$PU@$BTP^ LY/$I5#$I-(#d$Y#[,5-,8$P]@$BTPO MASSACHUSETTS REALTY GROUP REAL ESTATE CONSULTANTS TO THE MBTA 4#J.+'&+:#$3+#3\#1.$,+,'+F#,,#K#$+4,#,)'$+ VAA+E)H."+4,"..,W+T'%,'$W+F#%%#1-8%.,,% FT!0+OK.$+&'"+T8%)$.%%+E.#J+P%,#,.+OKK'",8$),2+ !"#$%9!:$2.?2(#'$->>$ 2.(#,#'(#6$+-,(2#'$(&$[26$&.$ ("#$;##A'2*+>#$ '->#$&;$ -++,&<2*-(#>8$PTU@B\U$ '`5-,#$;##($&;$>-.6$-60-1#.($ (&$%-((-+-.$D(-(2&.$2.$("#$ %-((-+-.$.#2="[&,"&&6$ &;$ 9&'(&.@$%-''-1"5'#(('c$ 033),)'$#J+M$&'"(#,)'$ :66,#''d$\OO$L2?#,$D(,##( N-.6$:,#-d$PTU@B\U$eZA DY$QBc\U$-1,#'R )!9$L#>#-'#$I-(#d$H&?#*[#,$PU@$BTP^ )!9$I5#$I-(#d$Y#[,5-,8$B\@$BTPO K,##.$N2.#$J<(#.'2&.$3L#'#(4 7 F.6#,(-X2.=$!"#$%&%'()'%%*)'(&"'+&*%+%,)(' (&$ '5['(-.(2->>8$,#651#$("#$1&'($&;$6#>2?#,2.=$("#$ +,&0#1($7"2>#$*-2.(-2.2.=$2('$1&,#$;5.1(2&.->2(8f 7 I#?#>&+2.=$-$*%-.*/0$*%1%'2&,2*"2%(3&("-($72>>$ #.'5,#$("-($-$,#>2-[>#$1&'($#'(2*-(#@$?2-[>#$1&'($ ,#651(2&.$'(,-(#=2#'@$-.6$-++,&+,2-(#$,2'X$ ->>&1-(2&.$72>>$[#$2.1&,+&,-(#6$2.(&$("#$KNg$ +,&0#1($=&2.=$;&,7-,6f 7 /5((2.=$2.$+>-1#$'%4&.*/5%02&1"'"(%1%'2&[&("$ 72("2.$("#$%9!:$-.6$;&,$.##6#6$&5('26#$ +,&;#''2&.->$'#,?21#'$1&.(,-1('f$-.6 7 N2*2(2.=$-662(2&.->$V&**&.7#->("$;5.62.=$-.6$ 2.'(#-6$;&15'2.=$&.$&[(-2.2.=$-.8$.##6#6$ "++)2)/'"#&6$'+)'(&6*/1&/27%*&,/$*0%,&'51"$-'$ ("#$9&'(&.$%#(,&+&>2(-.$/>-..2.=$E,=-.2h-(2&.@$ -.6$("#$*5.212+->2(2#'@$>-.6&7.#,'@$-.6$ 6#?#>&+#,'$[#.#;2((2.=$;,&*$("#$+,&0#1(c$ ] 89:;;<;=&>?@&ABC&>DAD@C&?>&ABC& EFA: "((+'dZZ777c*-''6&(c'(-(#c*-c5'Z;&15'\T PP "((+'dZZ777c*-''6&(c'(-(#c*-c5'Z;&15'\T "((+'dZZ777c*-''6&(c'(-(#c*-c5'Z;&15'\T PB @".)+&A*"',)2&"'+&F$,& :''$"#&@)+%*,7). 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