Climate migrants pushed to the brink South Asia is unprepared to protect climate migrants, even as it battles the COVID-19 crisis Funded by the European Union Implemented by Problem-tree analysis with villagers from Naogaon district, Bangladesh PHOTO: ACTIONAID Executive Summary The world is facing an unprecedented climate This policy brief delves into some of these aspects emergency. Climate change is impacting the world’s and presents the initial findings of research on climate poor adversely, destroying livelihoods and rendering change-induced migration internally in three countries them homeless. People are being displaced and in South Asia — Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. are being forced to move out of their homes. This is the situation when average temperatures have The study was part of the South Asia Migration and already increased by 1.1°C in 2019, compared to Climate (SAMAC) project, funded by the European Union preindustrial levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, through the International Centre for Migration Policy temperatures are expected to continue to increase, Development (ICMPD) managed project — Improving crossing the 2°C threshold. The impacts will further Migration Management in the Silk Routes Countries — in exacerbate issues people are facing. This raises the Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, implemented by following questions: ActionAid, in collaboration with Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA), and its partners. What happens to climate migrants then? The study finds that people’s livelihoods in South What kinds of social protection are they assured of? Asia are being devastated by intense flooding, chronic drought, sea-level rise and changing weather patterns. Do marginalised communities get support in reducing As local coping mechanisms fail, people are forced to their vulnerability to climate risks? migrate to survive and make an alternative living to feed their families. Governments are unprepared to deal with Do climate migrants and those who are displaced get the issue as they have not yet recognised how climate basic services such as education, food, shelter and impacts are affecting internal migration trends. As a security at destination sites? result, they have not developed appropriate policies to Do women, in particular, have access to quality avert, minimise and address the issue. healthcare and sanitation during disasters? People’s voices brought out through participatory Do affected communities get support to recover from research — backed by policy analysis — offer the climate impacts? following demands and recommendations: 2 CLIMATE MIGRANTS PUSHED TO THE BRINK SOUTH ASIA IS UNPREPARED TO PROTECT CLIMATE MIGRANTS, EVEN AS IT BATTLES THE COVID-19 CRISIS Role of National Governments: National governments Development, and UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly must recognise the growing problem of climate-induced and Regular Migration, must rigorously work to protect migration, invest in building resilience and protect and strengthen the rights of climate-induced migrants. migrants through targeted policy interventions at both source and destination sites. To uphold the rights Gaps and Research Needs: There are gaps in definitions and dignity of affected communities, governments and conceptual understanding of climate-induced must ensure basic services and social protection to migration. Further research, including academic analysis, vulnerable communities, particularly to women, whose is required to establish links between climate change care work increases due to such migration. and migration, and its impact on the most vulnerable. There is a strong case to be made for policies on how Regional Cooperation: There are more commonalities climate change is affecting the poorest and impacting among the three countries than there are differences. existing migration trends due to lack of access to This needs political recognition. Climate-induced natural resources such as land, water and forests. migration must be a part of forums like South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and Role of Other Stakeholders: UN agencies, international the Budapest Process.* Regional cooperation entails organisations, labour unions and civil society common policies, codes and responses, along with the sharing of information and learning from each other. organisations have a key role to play in identifying The rights of people who are forced to migrate across gaps and advocating on all aspects of climate- national borders must be legally protected. induced migration, including rights- and gender-based approaches. They must invest in raising awareness and International Cooperation: South Asian governments building capacity of government authorities, institutions must receive financial and capacity building and other stakeholders. The media also need to be support. Multilateral institutions, such as Taskforce encouraged to report more widely and consistently on for Displacement, Global Forum on Migration and the issue of climate migrants. *The Budapest Process is an interregional dialogue on migration stretching from Europe to the Silk Routes region - also covering Europe’s Eastern neighbours, the Western Balkans and Central Asia. It includes over 50 governments and numerous international organizations. View of Shaiday IDP camp, Herat province, Afghanistan PHOTO: TCRO CLIMATE MIGRANTS PUSHED TO THE BRINK SOUTH ASIA IS UNPREPARED TO PROTECT CLIMATE MIGRANTS, EVEN AS IT BATTLES THE COVID-19 CRISIS 3 Context Climate change is more real than ever. Temperatures Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems’, climate change and sea levels are rising; cyclones are striking with can “amplify environmentally-induced migration both fiercer intensity; glaciers are melting; and stories of within countries and across borders, reflecting multiple floods and droughts abound. People are ending up drivers of mobility and available adaptation measures”.6 more vulnerable than before, and those in South Asia, The report warns that “extreme weather and climate or even more so. According to the Internal Displacement slow-onset events may lead to increased displacement, Monitoring Centre’s (IDMC) latest ‘Global Report on disrupted food chains, threatened livelihoods, and Internal Displacement 2020’ (GRID 2020), there were contribute to exacerbated stresses for conflict”.7 Reports over 9.5 million newly displaced people in 2019 due to also say people will suffer “stress and mental trauma” disasters in South Asia, the highest figure since 2012.1 from displacement and loss of livelihoods and property.8 South Asia remains a disaster hotspot, For South Asia, the situation remains grim. There is a accounting for 38.3 per cent of the global likelihood for a 50 per cent decrease in the area where total number of displacements in 2019.2 most favourable and high-yielding wheat is grown, as a result of heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, according The report reveals that most of the disaster to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.9 Sea-level displacements in South Asia were due to monsoon rise will inundate low-lying areas and affect rice-growing rains, floods and tropical storms. Cities in the region regions.10 Hunger is on the rise. Over 820 million, or are running out of water; people are getting sicker or one in every nine people in the world, suffered from poorer; they are losing incomes and livelihoods and, in hunger in 2018, according to latest WMO global data.11 many cases, even their homes. Sometimes, they are left with no choice but to move to survive. Sometimes, they People will move as a consequence. pay with their lives. Studies estimate that by 2050, environmental The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO’s) migrants may number between 25 million and Statement on the State of Global Climate in 2019 1 billion the world over.12 puts things in context. The global mean temperature for 2019 was around 1.1°C higher, relative to the pre- In fact, it is already happening as is brought out by industrial period, and likely the second warmest on the studies conducted in the three SAMAC project 3 record. In fact, the past five years — from 2015 to countries. 2019 — have been the five warmest years on record.4 Also, the global mean sea level was at its highest in 2019 since the beginning of record keeping in 1993.5 The future appears bleak in a business-as-usual scenario. Research suggests that the world is set to cross the 1.5°C and 2°C average temperature thresholds compared to preindustrial times. Climate- related events that already pose risks to society through impacts on health, food, water and human security, will only get worse. According to the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Women’s focus group Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on ‘Climate discussion in rural Sindh, Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Pakistan PHOTO: SDPI Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse 4 CLIMATE MIGRANTS PUSHED TO THE BRINK SOUTH ASIA IS UNPREPARED TO PROTECT CLIMATE MIGRANTS, EVEN AS IT BATTLES THE COVID-19 CRISIS Climate-induced migration in South Asia Unable to find pastures for the remaining sheep, nor being able to feed them, he took the hard decision to The study on climate-induced migration in Afghanistan, sell his sheep. Bangladesh and Pakistan which account for nearly half of the new displacements in 2019 caused by weather In 2019, floods in Mohammad’s village claimed his related disasters,13 brings out the voices of people house, and his son and two daughters. Mohammad unsettled