Next Trillion Dollar Opportunities Portfolio Linear GDP growth = Exponential opportunities August 2021 1 Next Trillion dollar opportunity is on, QGLP works 훼 Documented India growth story on Alpha across products Investment Philosophy THINK EQUITY THINK MOTILAL OSWAL India growth story is on … The next trillion dollar opportunity India’s GDP trend in USD bn • 60 years for first 6,000 th 5 USD tn trillion dollar of GDP 3 years 5,022 5,000 4th USD tn 3 years 3,950 4,000 3rd USD tn • Every NTD (next 8 years 3,107 trillion dollar) in 3,000 2nd USD tn 7 years 2,039 successively few years 2,000 1st USD tn 58 years 948 1,000 0 FY51 FY60 FY70 FY80 FY90 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 3 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL NTD Framework : Linear growth, Exponential opportunities Doubling of per capita GDP leads to 10x opportunity in Basic Spend discretionary categories Discretionary Spend Housing Saving Consumer 1200 Autos Durables 4 x Entertainment Premium 1050 Travel 10 x Wear 300 Higher savings also mean 100 opportunities in: 600 750 Capital Infrastructure USD 1,000 USD 3,000 Goods Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 4 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL QGLP in a nutshell Our well documented Investment Philosophy Quality of business x Quality of Growth in earnings management • Volume growth • Stable business, preferably consumer facing • Price growth • Huge business opportunity • Mix change • Sustainable competitive advantage Q G • Operating leverage • Competent management team • Financial leverage • Healthy financials & ratios Longevity – of both Q & G Price • Long-term relevance of business L P • Reasonable valuation, relative • Extending competitive advantage period to quality & growth prospects • Sustenance of growth momentum • High margin of safety THINK EQUITY 5 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL 25 years of Wealth Creation Studies • Management Integrity – Understanding Sharp practices • Valuation Insights – What Works, What Dosen’t • Cap & Gap – Power of Longevity in wealth creation • Porter’s 5 Forces • Value Migration • Great, Good, Gruesome • Emergence & Endurance • Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity • Winner Categories, Category Winners • Management – 90% rule of investing • Payback ratio – Market Cap ÷ Next 5 years PAT • PEG – Trailing P/E to Forward earnings CAGR THINK EQUITY 6 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL NTDOP- Portfolio which has identified multibaggers 1,540 Above Strong 1,600 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to Price FY 18 average PAT CAGR RoE CAGR 1,400 Bajaj Finance Ltd. Eicher Motors Ltd. Page Industries Ltd. Voltas Ltd. 1,107 Eicher 1,200 30% 43% 62% NSE 500 TR HPCL Motors 1,000 Page 824 53% 25% 24% Industries 800 681 Bajaj 600 20% 33% 73% Finance 544 400 Voltas 15% 22% 40% 200 213 0 HPCL 21% 70% 40% Jun/13 Jun/14 Jun/15 Jun/16 Jun/17 Sep/13 Sep/14 Sep/15 Sep/16 Sep/17 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 Disclaimer: The above chart is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The stocks may or may not be part of our portfolio/ strategy/ schemes. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. QGLP works – Healthy Returns across all products since inception Date of inception in brackets Fund CAGR Benchmark CAGR 57% 44% 20% 17% 16% 11% 13% 11% 10% 10% 11% 8% Value Strategy NTDOP Strategy IOP Strategy IOP V2 Strategy BOP Strategy FMS Strategy (Feb 2003) (Aug 2007) (Feb 2010) (Feb 2018) (Dec 2017) (Dec 2019) Source: MOAMC Internal Research Data as on 31st July 2021 Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The sector mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 8 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Robust Long Term Compounder – 21% CAGR for 12yrs • Delivered 16% return since inception v/s benchmark returns of 11% 81.7 NTDOP 8.2x 58.0 57.5 Nifty 500 TRI 4.4x 52.9 49.9 Post Fees Excess 3.8x 40.0 41.0 SI Returns (CAGR) NTDOP 16% 24.4 Nifty 500 11% 17.6 14.1 Alpha 5% 11.9 12.9 8.5 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jul-21 9 Source: MOAMC Internal Research, Data as on 30th June 2021 Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Robust returns with significant outperformance…same manager since inception 12-year return of 19%, 3-year rolling return 60% Alpha of 9% 50% 45% 36% 40% 31% 26% 30% 22% Unbroken positive 3- 19% 20% 15% 14% 12% year rolling returns 10% 0% till as recent as June -10% 2008-11 2009-12 2010-13 2011-14 2012-15 2013-16 2014-17 2015-18 2016-19 2017-20-2% Nifty 500 TRI Alpha Return CAGR 2019 Annual Return NTDOP’s ability to deliver strong 80% 69% alpha during a growth rebound 60% 39% 44% 40% 27% 30% Positive annual alpha 21% 11% 9% 20% 9% 3% till June-2017 0% Jun/09 Jun/10 Jun/11 Jun/12 Jun/13 Jun/14 Jun/15 Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Jun/19 Jun/20 -20% -1% -13% -40% Nifty 500 TRI Alpha Return CAGR 10 Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Disclaimer: Disclaimer: Source: M OAMC Internal Research, Data as on on 31 as Data Research, Internal OAMC Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for for and is concept explain the to used is graph above The future. sustained in be not may or may performance Past 35% 135 185 35 85 Large caps have been outperforming small and midcaps for 2 years now … now years 2 for midcaps and small outperforming been have caps Large Why Now? Now? Why CY05 falls consecutive post inCY20 recovered Midcaps 29% CY06 Mid 77% Jan-18 - CY07 return negative of seenyears 2 consecutive never Caps have Feb-18 - 59% CY08 Mar-18 99% st Apr-18 July 2021 July CY09 May-18 - 19% Nifty 50 Nifty CY10 Jun-18 bounce to midcaps Expect - 31% Jul-18 CY11 Aug-18 39% CY12 the past in Sep-18 - 5% Oct-18 CY13 Nov-18 56% CY14 Dec-18 6% Jan-19 CY15 Feb-19 7% CY16 Mar-19 100 Midcap Nifty 47% CY17 Apr-19 - 15% May-19 CY18 illustration illustration Jun-19 - CY19 4% Jul-19 22% purpose only and should not used for development or development for should only used not and purpose Aug-19 CY20 economic recovery back with Sep-19 33% CY21TD* Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Jan-14 May-14 Mar-20 100 Smallcap Nifty Sep-14 Apr-20 Jan-15 May-20 May-15 implementation implementation Sep-15 1.72 Jun-20 Nifty Midcap100/Nifty 50 Midcap100/Nifty Nifty Jan-16 Jul-20 May-16 Aug-20 Sep-16 of an investment strategy. investment of an Sep-20 Jan-17 May-17 Oct-20 Sep-17 Nov-20 2.04 Jan-18 Dec-20 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-21 Jan-19 Feb-21 May-19 Mar-21 Sep-19 Jan-20 1.48 Apr-21 May-20 May-21 Sep-20 Jun-21 Jan-21 1.71 Jul-21 115 132 151 May-21 Why now? – Entering the sweet spot of the market We believe that INR 3,500 Cr – INR 30,000 Cr market cap is the sweet spot for Indian equities They can provide excellent balance between strong growth and a demonstrated history of management success Market Capitalization (INR Cr) (INR Capitalization Market • Extensively researched 94 > INR 30,000 Cr • Moderate growth • High institutional holding • Under-researched, INR 3,500 Cr to • Under- owned 310 Sweet spot of the equity INR 30,000 Cr • High growth market • Demonstrated management history Number of Companies of Number • Many fail at pre-emergence < INR 1260 stage 3500cr • Business models not established Source: NSEIndia, data as on December 31, 2020 Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only.
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