Jason O. Watson – Getty Images >AL East Boston 9 Tampa Bay 13 Toronto 17 New York 23 Baltimore 27 >AL Central Detroit 15 Kansas City 25 Cleveland 29 IntroduCing RAWS p. 4 ChiCago 33 Tony Gutierrez – AP Photo Minnesota 35 >AL West Texas 11 Oakland 19 Los Angeles 21 Seattle 31 Houston 37 SabermetriC Glossary Top 50 MLB Prospects >NL East p. 3 p. 70 Washington 40 Gene J. Puskar – AP Photo Elsa – Getty Images Atlanta 46 MMM his is now the eighth edition whiCh should bring a new angle to Philadelphia 62 MMM of my annual baseball preview. this year’s writing. New York 64 TMMM Over the years, it’s changed a lot I’ve also included a glossary (on Miami 68 from a 14-page summary of eaCh team page 3) for sabermetriC stats that I >NL Central to the 105-page monster-of-a preview often use, and I strongly suggest in 2012 to this newest edition. reading over that beCause the team St. Louis 44 This year there are two big Capsules Can be hard to understand if CinCinnati 48 changes in terms of the most you don’t know what, say, wOBA is. Pittsburgh 50 important aspeCt of the preview: the Additionally, my writing heavily Milwaukee 60 Content. My writing is a bit more stat- revolves around the use of a heavy than it has been in past years, retrospeCtive analysis of wins system ChiCago 66 and it also involves input from several (RAWS) I’ve created, which you >NL West front offiCe members in baseball. probably read about (on page 4) Los Angeles 42 Through Covering baseball for the before diving into eaCh team. Arizona 52 Charlotte Observer and Vanderbilt I hope you enjoy this year’s San FranCisCo 54 Hustler, I’ve been able to get in touch baseball preview, and good luCk to with several executives and sCouts, your favorite team. Colorado 56 This Baseball Preview is written by Ben Weinrib . San Diego 58 2 This year’s baseball preview can read a little dense if you’re not familiar with a few advanced statistics. Here is your translator for all things Sabermetrics: AAV Average Annual Value AAV is the average annual value of a ContraCt. BABIP Batting Average on Balls In Play BABIP is batting average on balls hit in the field of play (everything but strikeouts and homers). League average BABIP is .300, and there is little year-to-year Correlation, suggesting it is more luCk than skill. FIP Fielding Independent PitChing FIP is one of the premier pitChing statistiCs that is meant to imitate ERA (pitChers had a total ERA and FIP of exactly 3.87 last season). This stat only uses strikeouts, walks, and home runs—statistiCs only pitChers and batters Control—to evaluate pitChers without Considering his defense behind him. Pythagorean Record Bill James Came up with this formula to determine what a team’s record should have been based off runs sCored and allowed. This tries to remove luCk from the equation. For a deeper explanation, CheCk page 8. UZR Ultimate Zone Rating UZR measures runs saved (or lost) defensively. It’s tracked by dividing the field into 78 zones and Compares how the player did to how well others fielded similarly hit balls. UZR tends to vary a lot year to year. Last year Manny MaChado led the league 31.2 UZR and Shin-Soo Choo was last with -16.9 UZR. WAR Wins Above Replacement WAR measures the overall value of a player in terms of number of wins better than the average Triple-A player. It aCCounts for hitting, fielding baserunning, and positional value; the average first baseman is better than the average CatCher, so CatChers are more valuable. 4-5 WAR is Considered All-Star level. wOBA Weighted On-Base Average wOBA imitates OBP (league average OBP was .318 last year, while league average wOBA was .314). It weighs eaCh plate appearanCe proportional to its observed run values. For example, Troy Tulowitzki had a .400 wOBA last year and Jeff FranCoeur had a .235 wOBA. wRC+ Weighted Runs ReaCted Plus Similar to wOBA, wRC+ weighs every plate appearanCe differently, synthesizing them into one number. 100 is average and every point above that is one perCent above league average . For example, Miguel Cabrera had a 192 wRC+ and Alcides EsCobar had a 49 wRC+ last year. 3 Paul Sancya – Getty Images After 162 games, we tend to rank teams based off their record. But when it comes to determining which team is the best—not necessarily who played the best—wins are not the most important thing to look at. MMMetween the 2012 and 2013 2013 Considering how much better Choo good of a team they were. For a team MMMseasons, the Cincinnati Reds had is than Stubbs. The answer lies in the with a given talent level, there is a bell MMMessentially the same roster. Yes, fact that wins aren’t the end-all be-all for B Curve of possibilities for how a season oft-injured SCott Rolen retired and they determining how good a team is. Could unfold. For instanCe, many piCked swapped Drew Stubbs for Shin-Soo In faCt, they’re far from it. the Blue Jays to win 90 games in 2013, Choo, but the vast majority of the but they only ended up winning 74. personnel were the same. *** *** *** Even in a single season, given the But despite the similarity in teams, number of runs a team sCores, there is a the outComes of the past two seasons When it Comes to evaluating teams, bell Curve of possibilities for how the were drastically different. While the most people boil down their analysis to a season Could unfold. The 2012 Orioles Reds were seCond in baseball with 97 quote used by Hall of Fame football only sCored seven more runs than they wins two seasons ago, they dropped to coach Bill Parcells: “You are what your gave up, yet they went 93-65. 90 wins—just third in the NL Central— record says you are.” That’s why I’ve a developed a system the very next season. Those seven wins To be fair, that quote is generally to determine what each team’s record were the differenCe between winning CorreCt. The team with the best reCord is should have been, which I have their division and having to play in the generally the team that played the best, named RAWS for RetrospeCtive wild Card playoff, which they ended up espeCially in Major League Baseball Analysis of Wins System. losing. where they play a whopping 162 games (These sort of things So what was the differenCe between in a season. always catCh on the two seasons if the players were But I’m here to tell you that wins better when effectively the same? One Could even aren’t the best way to evaluate a team. If they make a Case that they had the goal is to figure out which team had a more talented team in the best production, then there are Considering how much better Choo is several better stats to look at. than Stubbs. The answer lies in the faCt The truth is that a team’s that wins aren’t the end-all be-all for record is far from a perfect determining how good a team is. indicator of how In fact, it’s far from it. Weighted Net Steals are not a predictive statistic; it’s a descriptive one. But at the same time, one Can use the data from this new stat to bring up questions about which type player might be more valuable going forward. 4 Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports have an easy to pronounCe extra innings games and 29-9 in one-run abbreviation.) games. Despite their 94-68 reCord, the Bill James Came up with the idea of O’s had an 82-80 Pythagorean record, and Pythagorean ReCord many moons ago, largely thanks to regression to the mean, and the idea is that there is a relationship Baltimore went just 85-77 in 2013. between runs sCored, runs allowed, and Another signal that a team is headed Chart Key wins. The equation for Pythagorean towards regression to the mean is with The first set of Columns has runs winning percentage is as follows: unsustainable play like the Cardinals had sCored, runs against, and Pythagorean . runs sCored2 . with runners in sCoring position last reCord. runs sCored2 + runs allowed2 year. They were head and shoulders The seCond set of Columns has That formula has sinCe been updated to above all other teams with a .370 wOBA total team WAR and then their reCord matCh empirical results, and the Current and .377 BABIP when the next Closest based on WAR. exponent used in all Cases 1.83. teams had a .344 wOBA and .321 BABIP. The third set of Columns has the Runs are the best way to measure That type of outlier play isn’t factored official 2013 RAWS projeCted reCords. how productive a team was beCause, into Pythagorean Wins, but it is faCtored The fourth set of Columns has the well, runs win games. DisCrepanCies into the second half of RAWS’ formula. aCtual 2013 reCord for the team. between aCtual reCords and Pythagorean WAR is an inCredibly useful stat in The final Column is the differenCe reCords often Come about beCause of terms of desCribing the value of a single between the projeCted reCord and unsustainably good play in Close games, player. It’s also incredibly useful when it aCtual reCord in 2013.