2012 y Total Maximum Daily Loads for Januar the Grand River (lower) Watershed Final Report January 31, 2012 John R. Kasich, Governor Mary Taylor, Lt. Governor Scott J. Nally, Director Photo caption: Paine Falls (on Paine Creek) in Lake County. Lower Grand River Watershed TMDL January 2012 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Water Quality Standards and Impairments ........................................................................................... 3 2.1. Numeric Criteria ........................................................................................................................... 3 2.2. Narrative Criteria and Guidance ................................................................................................... 7 2.3. Impairments ................................................................................................................................ 10 3. Watershed Characterization ................................................................................................................ 14 3.1. Watershed Description ................................................................................................................ 14 3.2. Land Use and Land Cover .......................................................................................................... 16 3.3. Soils and Geology ....................................................................................................................... 18 3.4. Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 21 4. Data Analysis and Summary ............................................................................................................... 24 4.1. Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 25 4.2. Griggs Creek – Mill Creek Subbasin .......................................................................................... 30 4.3. Grand River Tributary Subbasin ................................................................................................. 40 4.4. Big Creek and Red Creek Subbasin ............................................................................................ 47 4.5. Grand River Large River Assessment Unit ................................................................................. 54 5. Source Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 65 5.1. Stressor Identification ................................................................................................................. 65 5.2. Potential Pollutants and Causes of Concern ................................................................................ 67 5.3. Candidate Causes ........................................................................................................................ 73 5.4. Pollutants of Concern and Watershed-wide Sources .................................................................. 73 5.5. Griggs Creek – Mill Creek Subbasin .......................................................................................... 82 5.6. Big Creek and Red Creek Subbasin ............................................................................................ 86 5.7. Grand River Tributary Subbasin ................................................................................................. 90 6. Flow Estimation .................................................................................................................................. 93 6.1. Hydrologic Response Units ........................................................................................................ 93 6.2. Rainfall-Runoff Modeling ........................................................................................................... 95 7. Aquatic Life Use Impairments Linkage Analysis and Hydrologic Targets ........................................ 96 7.1. Effects of Urbanization ............................................................................................................... 97 7.2. Effects of Nutrients on Water Quality ...................................................................................... 113 7.3. Surrogate Measures and Setting Hydrologic Targets ................................................................ 114 7.4. Big Creek (HUC 04110004 06 06) ........................................................................................... 121 7.5. Kellogg Creek (HUC 04110004 06 06) .................................................................................... 123 7.6. Mill Creek (HUC 04110004 04 02) .......................................................................................... 126 i Lower Grand River Watershed TMDL January 2012 7.7. Red Creek (HUC 04110004 06 07) ........................................................................................... 127 8. Recreation Use Designation Impairments Linkage Analysis ............................................................ 131 8.1. Griggs Creek (HUC 04110004 04 01) ...................................................................................... 132 8.2. Peters Creek – Mill Creek (HUC 04110004 04 02) .................................................................. 132 8.3. Town of Jefferson – Mill Creek (HUC 04110004 04 03) ......................................................... 133 8.4. Coffee Creek – Grand River (HUC 04110004 06 01) .............................................................. 134 8.5. Mill Creek (HUC 04110004 06 02) .......................................................................................... 135 8.6. Paine Creek (HUC 04110004 06 04) ........................................................................................ 135 8.7. Big Creek (HUC 04110004 06 06) ........................................................................................... 136 8.8. Red Creek – Grand River (HUC 04110004 06 07) ................................................................... 140 8.9. Large River Assessment Unit ................................................................................................... 140 9. TMDL Allocations ............................................................................................................................ 145 9.1. Duration Curve Approach ......................................................................................................... 145 9.2. Load Allocations ....................................................................................................................... 147 9.3. Wasteload Allocations .............................................................................................................. 147 9.4. Margin of Safety and Future Growth ........................................................................................ 149 9.5. Critical Conditions and Seasonality .......................................................................................... 149 9.6. Flow Regime TMDLs and Allocations ..................................................................................... 150 9.7. Nutrient TMDLs and Allocations ............................................................................................. 154 9.8. Pathogen TMDLs and Allocations ............................................................................................ 156 10. Protection Strategies ..................................................................................................................... 164 10.1. Protection Strategy Targets ................................................................................................... 164 10.2. Status of Unimpaired Streams ............................................................................................... 167 11. Implementation and Reasonable Assurances ................................................................................ 169 11.1. Point Sources ........................................................................................................................ 169 11.2. Urban Land Uses ................................................................................................................... 171 11.3. Agricultural Land Uses ......................................................................................................... 176 11.4. Recommended Implementation Actions by Subwatershed ................................................... 177 11.5. Reasonable Assurances ......................................................................................................... 180 12. Public Participation ....................................................................................................................... 184 13. References ..................................................................................................................................... 186 Appendix A. HUCs and Ohio EPA Sample Stations Appendix B. Additional Ohio EPA and USGS Data Appendix C. Metals Data Summary and Analysis Appendix D. Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation Appendix E. Graphical Summary of Ohio EPA Temperature Grab Samples Appendix F. Published Pollutant Concentrations and Loads in Runoff ii Lower Grand River Watershed