THE BUSINESS KNOWLEDGE NETWORK THE CONFERENCE BOARD newsletter F a l l 2 0 01 Fidelity’s Pozen Examines Tony Blair Briefs Conference Board Threats to Economic Growth Members in London British Prime Minister Tony Blair briefed Conference Board Trustees, and chairmen and chief executives of FT 500 companies, at a special Conference Board meeting in obert Pozen is Vice Chairman of Fidelity London. The Prime Minister was welcomed Investments. Formerly president of by Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge, Chair- Fidelity Management & Research Com- man of British Airways Plc and Chairman of pany—Fidelity’s investment advisor for its The Conference Board’s Board of Trustees. nearly $1 trillion in mutual funds—Mr. Lord Marshall organized a series of events Pozen is a member of the President’s for the gathering, which included Conference RCommission to Strengthen Social Secu- Board Trustees and CEOs of U.K. member rity and a Trustee of The Conference companies. The program featured a boat jour- Board. His book, The Mutual Fund Busi- ney up the Thames, culminating at the Tower ness, is widely used in business schools. of London with the “Ceremony of the Keys” and a private viewing of the Crown Jewels. In this interview (conducted prior to the Robert Pozen events of September 11, 2001), Pozen con- siders current threats—and positive impulses—to business growth. In this envi- ronment, says Pozen—who also offers a look Growing Clout for ahead for mutual funds—The Conference Board is a vital resource for business lead- Global Investors ers around the globe. As corporations around the world become What are the major threats to U.S. business increasingly dependent on equity fueled by growth over the next few years? The U.S. open markets, economic clout is shifting toward economy is going through a reduction in investors who have equity stakes—especially the growth of corporate earnings, espe- those willing to become activists. cially in the telecom and technology sec- A new Conference Board study finds that tors. These sectors experienced a large transnational institutional investors are begin- increase in capital expenditures over the ning to evaluate corporate performance by an last few years, so it may take a while to evolving set of global corporate governance work off this capacity build-up. The other standards. This development is changing how major threat to the U.S. economy comes companies and investors do business with each from U.S. consumers. So far they have other. Moreover, the towering share of U.S. held up pretty well, as reflected in solid corporate investments worldwide raises the housing and auto sales. But consumer expectation that U.S investors will not only attitudes could change if the unemploy- have an important say in the standards them- British Prime MinisterTony Blair with Lord Marshall, ment rate rises sharply. selves, but could also make U.S.-style activism Chairman of British Airways Plc and Chairman of the norm among global investors. The Conference Board’s Board of Trustees. What do you see as positive forces that may Source: The Global Investor and Corporate Governance: What counter those threats? The Federal Reserve Do Institutional Investors Want? Report 1297-01-RR, 2001. L CONTINUED PAGE 2 THE CONFERENCE BOARD The Business Knowledge Network This summer in Hong Kong, a Changing Company special Conference Culture: The Irish Dilemma Board meeting on sustainability drew business leaders When the European Council on Human Resources met in Dublin in June, members examined new paths companies from throughout are taking to change their cultures. John Guinan, Director Asia/Pacific. of Human Resources for Retail Banking and Distribution Shown left to right at the Bank of Ireland (the meeting’s host), said that too are: Lily Yam, much time is devoted to writing the company’s values while Secretary for the the leaders fail to demonstrate those values. “Exceptional CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 Environment and business performance,” he said, “will be achieved only has dropped interest rates several times this year and through exceptional leadership and people management.” Food, Government continues to let the money supply expand substantially. The keynote speaker, Paul Haran, Secretary General of These typically have been favorable factors for the U.S. of the Hong Kong the Irish Department of Enterprise, Trade, and Environ- economy. As interest rates drop, the United States has Special ment, described the transformation of the Irish economy experienced a wave of mortgage refinancings. These Administrative into today’s successful “Celtic Tiger.” But he warned that are like giving homeowners a monthly tax cut. Finally, Region; Eden Woon, complacency is the greatest danger to continued success. To there are the real cuts in tax rates, which over time Director of the avoid this, he predicted growing investment in education at should help stimulate economic growth. all levels, creating more intellectual capital for the future. Hong Kong General What is The Conference Board’s chief contribution to the Chamber of world business community? The Conference Board is a Commerce; and key source of research and statistics on the U.S. and Marjorie Yang, other world economies. For example, its survey on con- Chairman of the sumer confidence is watched carefully by business and Esquel Group of Nielsen is Board’s government leaders. The Board also provides an impor- Companies. tant forum for in-depth discussion of management New Nordic Director issues through its councils and conferences. These have the special benefit of participation from company man- Niels Erik Nielsen is The Conference Board’s new Direc- agers actively involved in the subject matter. tor of Associate Service for the Nordic Region (includ- ing Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden). How important is The Conference Board’s continuing He replaces Jani Törnqvist, who will continue his long effort to globalize its membership and research? Very association with The Conference Board Europe as a pro- important. It is easy to say that businesses should oper- ject director for a number of European Councils. ate globally, but difficult to do well. The Board can help Nielsen, a Dane, began his career with one of the executives learn how to manage better across continents. Board’s longest-standing members, A.P. Møller. He has In addition, the Board is in the process of expanding its also held management positions in Denmark, Singapore, economic indicators to include significant countries out- Taiwan, Ghana, the United Kingdom and the United States side of the United States. This expansion will create a for such major international companies as General valuable resource for global economic projections. Electric and Marsh & McLennan. As the author of the definitive book on mutual funds, what’s ahead for the industry? During the late 1990s, U.S. investors became accustomed to annual returns above 20 percent. The fund industry has to help manage investor expectations to more realistic levels—for example, long- Michael Eskew, term equity returns in the United States are in the range who will become of 11 to 13 percent per year. At the same time, the fund the Chairman and industry has to deal with the aging of the baby boomers, CEO of UPS in who will start to reach 65 in 2011. Up to now, fund com- January 2002, plexes have concentrated on helping investors accumulate addressing The nest eggs for retirement; in the future, they will have to develop programs to help distribute retirement income to Conference Board’s Gail Fosler, Chief Economist of The Conference Board, addressing fund shareholders. Strategic Alliances the Board’s Paris business briefing. meeting. 2 THE CONFERENCE BOARD THE CONFERENCE BOARD The Business Knowledge Network Top Board Economists New Conference Board Chair Meet Chinese Experts at University of Groningen The Conference Board’s top economists and China’s eco- Professor Bart van Ark, Director of International Eco- nomic policymakers met in Beijing to discuss challenges nomic Research at The Conference Board and Professor and opportunities facing the United States and China. in the Economics of Productivity and Technology Policy This “Sino-U.S. Economic Forum” was initiated by the Bart van Ark, at the University of Groningen, keynoted a special meet- Chinese government and co-sponsored by China’s Director of ing this spring at the University of Groningen, The Nether- Academy of Macroeconomic Research, the State Devel- International lands. It marked the debut of The Conference Board Chair opment Planning Commission, and the Center for China Economic in the Economics of Productivity and Technology Policy. and Foreign Group Enterprise Development Studies. In his lecture, van Ark questioned whether Europe is fully Research at The Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler and utilizing new advances in information and communication Director of Economic Research Robert McGuckin Conference Board technologies. He underscored the urgency of investment so explained the need for microdata and economic mea- and Professor in that the old economy can benefit from the new economy. sures to assess ongoing reforms in China. Chinese the Economics of economists provided updates on economic developments Productivity and in China and explored ways in which The Conference Technology Policy Board and China can cooperate in future activities. at the University of Knowledge Management a Groningen. Hot Issue in the U.K. Consignia, formerly the United Kingdom’s Post Office, hosted the second meeting of The Conference Board’s European Council on Knowledge Management, in Rugby, England. A highlight of the meeting was a tour of Consignia’s Innova- tion Laboratory and an introduction to technologies for the Gail Fosler, Senior future. The meeting focused on strategies for winning com- Vice President and mitment of the CEO and top management to knowledge Chief Economist of management strategies, and for measuring and demonstrating The Conference the value of knowledge management projects.