Determinants of Successful Secessions in Post-colonial Africa: Analyzing the Cases of Eritrea and South Sudan By Albano Agostinho Troco 213566558 Supervisor: Dr. Khondlo Mtshali A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Coursework) in Political Science, Cluster of International and Public Affairs, College of Humanities, School of Social Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. 2014 As the Candidate„s Supervisor I agree to the submission of this dissertation ___________________________________________ Dr. Khondlo Mtshali ___________________ Date i DECLARATION I, Albano Agostinho Troco declare that: (i) The research reported in this dissertation is my own unaided work. All citations, references and borrowed ideas have been duly acknowledged. (ii) The dissertation has not been submitted previously for any degree or examination in any other University. ___________________________________________ Albano Agostinho Troco ___________________ Date ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe an immense debt of gratitude to many people, who over the years, have supported and encouraged me in my academic endeavors. Firstly, I would like to give my heartfelt thanks to my supervisor Dr. Khondlo Mtshali for the expert guidance and valuable insights provided during the process of researching and writing this thesis. Secondly, I thank the University of kwaZulu-Natal, especially the School of Social Sciences, for the scholarships awarded to me during my post-graduate studies at the institution. Similarly, I extend my gratitude to all my lecturers at the Cluster of International and Public Affairs (Dr. Alison Jones, Mr. Ayo Wheto; Dr. Desiree Manicom; Mr. Hakeem Onapajo; Mr. Sakiemi Idoniboye-Obu; and Dr. Sharmla Rhama) for their mentorship. Thirdly, I am profoundly grateful to my family, especially my siblings (Joao, Arlete, Vasco and Sergio) and Miss Bathokozille Angel Msimango for their unconditional love and unwavering support. I could not have done it without you. Fourthly, I am deeply indebted to my compatriots in Pietermaritzburg (Dr. Elizabeth Salala Diu, Dr. Jose Caluyna Pedro and family) for opening the doors of their homes and hearts to me. I also extend my heartfelt thanks to my friends and colleagues (too many to mention here) especially Regis Wilson, William Muna, Dominic Okoliko, Ishema Jeanine, Sabelo Ndlovu and Ndyamuthanda Matshoba: your friendship kept me going. Last but not least, I am grateful to God almighty for all the blessings bestowed on me, and to the Dominicans (Vicariate of Angola) for the many years of shared experiences of life and the pursuit of the ideals of fraternity, peace and social justice. iii DEDICATION To my father Agostinho Vasco Wanga Troco for instilling in me the love for academic excellence and to the loving memory of my mother Constantina Albano, Your light extinguished long before I could understand the breadth and length, height and depths of your love iv EPIGRAPHS “We would like our African brothers to know that we are not against unity but we have been occupied by a neighboring country”. Eritrean Nationalists rallying for independence in 1972 “The South will at any moment separate from the North if and when the North so decides directly or indirectly, through political, social and economic subjection of the South”. Father Saturnino Lohure (1921-1967) in a speech delivered before the Sudanese national Parliament in Khartoum on June 23, 1958 v ABSTRACT Post-colonial Africa has been riddled by numerous secessionist conflicts. Since the dawn of independence in the 1960s a number of African countries have experienced rebellions involving ethno-linguistic groups or marginalized regions demanding territorial separation from the state in order to establish new independent nations. This includes: Angola (Cabinda), Comoros (Anjouan and Mohedi), The Democratic Republic of Congo (Katanga, South Kassai) Ethiopia (Eritrea, Ogaden, and Oromia, Afar), Mali (Tuaregs), Niger (Tuaregs), Nigeria (Biafra, Niger Delta), Senegal (Casamance), Somalia (Somaliland) and Sudan (South Sudan). However, despite the prevalence of secessionist conflicts in the continent only two cases have succeeded resulting in the establishment of new states: Eritrea in 1993 and South Sudan in 2011. This research seeks to explain the determinants of successful secessions in post-colonial Africa. This objective is achieved through an analysis of the dynamics of secession in Eritrea and South Sudan. Without any pretensions to establish theoretical causal generalizations, the study examines the conditions that have evolved out of the particular experiences of Eritrea and South Sudan to contend that both domestic and international politics play a decisive role in determining the outcome of secessionist conflicts in the continent. The research favors the qualitative methodological approach, makes use of descriptive data gathered from secondary sources and is informed by the theoretical assumptions of Wood‟s comparative analytical framework on secession and Coggins‟ international-level model of state birth. Key words: Secession, Self-determination, Post-colonial Africa, Eritrea, South Sudan, vi LIST OF ACRONYMS ALF Azania Liberation Front AU African Union BCE Before Common Era CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreements ELF Eritrean Liberation Front ELM Eritrean Liberation Movement EPLF Eritrean People‟s Liberation Front EPRF Ethiopian People‟s Revolutionary Forces GC General Command GoS Government of the Sudan GS General Secretariat NPG Nile Provisional Government OAU Organization of African Union OLF Oromo Liberation Front SANU Sudan African Nationalist Union SC Supreme Council SPLA/M Sudan People‟s Liberation Army/Movement SSLF/M South Sudan Liberation Front/Movement SSPG South Sudan Provisional Government TPLF Tigray People‟s Liberation Front UN United Nations US United States USSR Union of Socialist Soviet Republics vii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ..................................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................................... iv EPIGRAPH ............................................................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................. vi LIST OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Research .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Questions .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 3 1.5 Principal Theories upon which the Research Project is constructed ........................................... 4 1.5.1 Wood‟s Comparative Analytical Framework on Secession .................................................. 5 1.5.2 Coggins‟ International-Level Model of State Birth ................................................................. 7 1.6 Research Methodology and Methods ................................................................................................... 8 1.7 Significance of the Research ................................................................................................................... 9 1.8 Structure of the Dissertation .................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Secession: A Contested Concept ......................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Brief Historical Overview of Secession ............................................................................................. 12 2.4 The Dynamics of Secession .................................................................................................................. 13 2.5 Normative and Legal Approaches to Secession .............................................................................. 15 2.6 The Secessionist Debate in Africa ....................................................................................................... 16 2.6.1 Causal Factors of Secession in Africa ........................................................................................ 17 2.6.2 The Right to Secession in Africa ................................................................................................. 19 2.6.3 The Secessionist Deficit Argument ...........................................................................................