GEF/E/C.59/01 November 11, 2020 59th GEF Council December 7-10, 2020 Virtual Meeting Agenda Item 09 EVALUATION OF GEF SUPPORT IN FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED SITUATIONS (Prepared by the Independent Evaluation Office of the GEF) Recommended Council Decision The Council, having reviewed document GEF/E/C.59/01, Evaluation of GEF Support in Fragile and Conflict- Affected Situations, and the Management Response, endorses the following recommendations: 1. The GEF Secretariat should use the project review process to provide feedback to Agencies to identify conflict and fragility-related risks to a proposed project and develop measures to mitigate those risks. 2. To improve conflict-sensitive programming while also providing flexibility to Agencies and projects, the GEF Secretariat could develop guidance for conflict-sensitive programming. 3. To improve conflict-sensitive design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of GEF projects, the GEF Secretariat together with the Agencies should leverage existing platforms for learning, exchange, and technical assistance. 4. The current GEF Environmental and Social Safeguards could be expanded to provide more details so that GEF projects address key conflict-sensitive considerations. 5. The GEF Secretariat could consider revising its policies and procedures so that GEF-supported projects can better adapt to rapid and substantial changes common in fragile and conflict-affected situations ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................................................ VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... VI 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Problem description ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Structure of the evaluation ................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Linkages between environment, fragility, and conflict....................................................................... 4 1.4 Environmental interventions, conflict, and fragility ........................................................................... 8 1.5 Growing attention to conflict sensitivity .......................................................................................... 10 1.6 Multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and conflict .......................................................... 12 1.7 The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), conflict, and peace .................................................... 14 1.8 Implementing Agency policies, safeguards, and toolkits .................................................................. 17 1.9 GEF objectives and theory of change ......................................................................................... 22 1.10 GEF interventions and conflict ........................................................................................................ 25 1.11 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 31 2. GEF INTERVENTIONS IN FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED SITUATIONS.................................................................. 32 2.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 33 2.2 Prevalence of fragile and conflict-affected situations in the GEF portfolio ...................................... 34 2.3 Statistical analysis of project results vis-à-vis fragility ...................................................................... 42 2.4 Statistical analysis of project results vis-à-vis conflict ...................................................................... 45 2.5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 47 3. FINDINGS: ANALYSIS OF GEF INTERVENTIONS IN CONFLICT-AFFECTED SITUATIONS ................................................... 48 3.1 Key pathways by which conflict and fragility affect GEF projects .................................................... 48 3.2 Impacts of conflict and fragility on GEF projects .............................................................................. 57 3.3 Typology of conflict-sensitive GEF programming approaches .......................................................... 65 3.4 Conflict-sensitive programming across the project life cycle ........................................................... 81 Project design ...................................................................................................................... 81 Implementation .................................................................................................................. 89 Project closure .................................................................................................................... 96 Evaluation and learning ...................................................................................................... 97 3.5 Cross-cutting issues ........................................................................................................................... 99 3.5.1 Human rights ...................................................................................................................... 99 3.5.2 Indigenous peoples .......................................................................................................... 100 iii 3.5.3 Gender .............................................................................................................................. 101 3.5.4 Private sector .................................................................................................................... 102 3.5.5 The COVID-19 pandemic ................................................................................................... 103 4. RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 104 ANNEX A: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION EXPANDING UPON THE RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................... 106 ANNEX B: WORKS CITED ................................................................................................................................. 115 ANNEX C: LIST OF PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS EXAMINED ....................................................................................... 145 ANNEX D: LIST OF INTERVIEW SUBJECTS ............................................................................................................. 155 ANNEX E: FRAGILITY OF STATES RECEIVING GEF FUNDING .................................................................................... 160 ANNEX F: SITUATION-LEVEL TEXTUAL REVIEW TALLIES .......................................................................................... 185 ANNEX G: RISK IDENTIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT IN SELECTED GEF PROJECTS ...................................................... 187 ANNEX H: GEF REGIONAL STATISTICS RESULTS .................................................................................................... 194 ANNEX I: EVOLUTION OF CONFLICT SENSITIVITY IN ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMMING ................................................. 206 ANNEX J: LINKAGES BETWEEN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND ENVIRONMENTAL PEACEBUILDING ............. 211 LISTS OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES FIGURES Figure 1.1: Environmental Risks and Opportunities across the Conflict Life Cycle………………………………….. 5 Figure 1.2: Linkages between the Sustainable Development Goals and Environmental Peacebuilding…. 16 Figure 1.3: General Framework for GEF Theory of Change…………………………………………………………………… 23 Figure 1.4: Conflict Hotspots and Location of GEF Projects and GEF-Supported Protected Areas (1989- 2020)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………… 26 Figure 1.5: GEF Case Study Situations and Conflict (1989-2020) ………………….…………………… ………………… 32 Figure 2.1: Fragility of Countries and Territories Receiving GEF Funding (2006-2020) ……… ……….……..… 35 Figure 2.2: GEF Investments in Situations Affected by Major Armed Conflict (GEF 1-6) ……… …….…..…… 37 Figure 2.3: Projects by Conflict Status for Each GEF Replenishment ………………………………… …………………. 41 Figure 3.1: Key Pathways by which Conflict and Fragility Affect GEF Projects …….……………… ………………. 48 Figure 3.2: Deforestation in the Parrot’s Beak Region of Guinea (1974 and 2002) ……….……… …………….. 56 Figure 3.3: Typology of Conflict-Sensitive Strategies in GEF Projects………………….………………………………… 66 iv TABLES Table 2.1: GEF Projects across Focal Areas (1991-2019) ………………………………………………………….………..… 42 Table 2.2: Types of GEF Projects and Conflict Status (1991-2019) ……………………………………………………..… 42 Table 2.3: Impacts of Fragility on TER Binary Scores for Country-Level GEF Projects (1991-2019) …..…… 44 Table 2.4: Effect of Country Fragility on TER Binary Outcome Variables (Warning Baseline) ………..……….45 Table 2.5: Effect of Country Fragility on Likelihood of Project Cancellation (Warning Baseline) …………… 45 Table D.1 Table Comparing Listing of Countries in the Harmonized List and the Fragile