Laois County Council Comhairle Chontae Laoise APPENDIX 4 : Retail Strategy 2011-2017 Laois County Development Plan 2011-2017 Adopted 11th October 2011 Retail Strategy 2011-2017 CONTENTS PAGE NO 1. INTRODUCTION 1.0 Introduction 6 1.1 Baseline Information 6 1.2 Strategic and Statutory Planning policy 6 1.3 Existing and Emerging Retail Floorspace 7 1.4 Health Checks of Existing Centres 7 1.5 Statistical Sources 7 1.6 Overall Aims 7 1.7 Structure of Report 7 2. POLICY CONTEXT 2.0 Introduction 8 2.1 National Context 8 2.2 National Spatial Strategy 10 2.3 National Development Plan 2007-2012 10 2.4 Regional Context 10 2.5 Midland Regional Planning Guidelines 2004 11 2.6 Local Context 12 2.7 Adjoining Counties Context 16 3. POPULATION TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR THE COUNTY AND REGION 3.0 Introduction 17 3.1 Population Trends 1991-2006 17 3.2 Population Growth Forecast 2020 – Three Alternative Scenarios 22 3.3 Population Projections 24 4. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT 4.0 Introduction 26 4.1 Portlaoise Town 27 4.2 Portarlington 31 4.3 Mountmellick 33 4.4 Rathdowney 34 4.5 Mountrath 36 4.6 Abbeyleix 37 4.7 Durrow 38 4.8 Stradbally 40 4.9 Graiguecullen 41 4.10 Ballylynan 43 5. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF COMPETING CENTRES 5.0 Introduction 45 5.1 Athlone 46 5.2 Thurles 46 5.3 Tullamore 47 5.4 Carlow 48 5.5 Kilkenny 49 2 Retail Strategy 2011-2017 5.6 Newbridge 50 5.7 Greater Dublin Area 51 5.8 Conclusion 53 6 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS 6.0 Introduction 54 6.1 Population of Co Laois 54 6.2 Expenditure per person of population in the county 55 6.3 Turnover considerations 60 6.4 Amount of existing floorspace in the county 62 6.5 Future Retail Capacity 64 7 RETAIL STRATEGY, POLICIES AND OBJECTIVES 7.0 Introduction 66 7.1. Evaluation of Laois County Retail Strategy 2003 67 7.2 Proposed Retail Policies and Objectives 68 8 IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING 8.0 Introduction 77 8.1 Floorspace limitations 78 8.2 Review of strategy 79 8.3 Collation of retail data 79 8.4 Implementation 79 8.5 Monitoring and Review 79 3 Retail Strategy 2011-2017 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 : Criteria to assess retail impact 9 Table 2: Retail policies Laois CDP 2006-2012 13 Table 3: Retail policies Portlaoise LAP 2006-2012 14 Table 4: Retail policies Portarlington LAP 2007-2013 15 Table 5: Retail policies Mountmellick LAP 2007-2013 15 Table 6: Retail policies Graiguecullen LAP 2007-2013 16 Table 7: Latest Population trends 17 Table 8: Population Growth Rates 1991-2006 (% compound per annum) 18 Table 9: Regional Shares (%) of state population 1991-2006 19 Table 10 Regional Population increase due to net in-migration 19 Table 11: Population change by county in Leinster 2002-2006 20 Table 12: Population growth of retail centres in County Laois 2002-2006 21 Table 13: Population change within Portlaoise 2002-2006 22 Table 14: Population Trends for Co Laois 1971-2006 23 Table 15: DoEHLG revised regional population targets 24 Table 16: Population projections 25 Table 17: County Retail Hierarchy 26 Table 18: Major retailers in Portlaoise and their locations 29 Table 19: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Portlaoise ) 30 Table 20: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Portarlington) 33 Table 21: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Mountmellick) 34 Table 22: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Rathdowney) 36 Table 23: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Abbeyleix) 38 Table 24: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Stradbally) 40 Table 25: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Graiguecullen) 42 Table 26: Recent Retail Planning History 2004-2009 (Ballylynan) 44 Table 27: Net Retail Floor space in Tullamore 48 Table 28: Level of retail development in competing centres 53 Table 29: County Laois Population projections 55 Table 30: Average percentage change in the volume sales of retail goods 56 Table 31: Seasonally adjusted indices of total retail sales since January 2008 (value) 56 Table 32: Seasonally adjusted indices of total retail sales since January 2008 (volume) 57 Table 33: Average weekly household expenditure 58 Table 34: Annual percentage change in consumption of personal income 59 Table 35: Indices of disposable income per person 2006 by Region 60 Table 36: Indices of disposable income per person by Region, County & State 2000-2006 60 Table 37: Turnover per net retail square metre estimates 1996-2020 61 Table 38: Expenditure per capita on convenience and comparison goods estimate to 2020 62 Table 39: Growth in net retail space quantum in County Laois 2002-2009 63 Table 40: Net Retail floor space permitted 63 Table 41: Projected selling space requirements for both Convenience and Comparison Goods 65 Table 42: CDP 2006-2012 – Policy Changes 69 Table 43: County Laois Retail Hierarchy Proposed 70 4 Retail Strategy 2011-2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document sets out the Retail Strategy for County Laois. In accordance with the Retail Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2005, local authorities are required to prepare retail strategies for their functional areas. The guidelines were issued as Ministerial Guidelines under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000. Section 28 provides that planning authorities and An Bord Pleanala shall have regard to Ministerial guidelines in the performance of their duties. The Retail Planning Guidelines [RPG‘s] were introduced in response to the ever increasing pressure for retail development in Ireland throughout the last decade in particular. In essence, they seek to create a policy framework to enable future retail development be accommodated in such a manner as is efficient, equitable and sustainable. This Retail Strategy sets out the general strategic retail intentions and future retail land use policies of Laois County Council for the period of the current County Development Plan [2006-2012] and beyond to 2018. It reviews and updates the findings of the previous [2003] Retail Strategy which was carried out in the form of a variation to the then County Development Plan and follows on from the conclusions of the review of that strategy dating from 2006. In summary, the Strategy consists of four main elements: firstly, it presents an overview of all relevant baseline information as well as the statutory and strategic context governing retailing in County Laois, secondly, it examines the state of existing retailing provision throughout the county, thirdly, it quantifies how this level of provision is likely to change over the coming years and the demographic, expenditure and turnover context to such change, fourthly, it offers recommendations as to how this local authority can best deal with and manage the evolving retail environment in the interests of the proper planning and sustainable development of County Laois. A number of key statistics and trends have been identified in the course of preparing the Strategy. Principally, there has been an estimated 45% increase in the amount of net retail floorspace in County Laois since 2002. Moreover, if approved planning applications from 2006 onwards are included, there is the potential for a further 62% increase in the retail quantum of the county. These statistics are exclusive of retail warehousing which has also witnessed substantial floorspace expansion especially in Portlaoise and Carlow Environs where it has been the predominant form of recent retail activity. In general there is a fundamental link between retail activity and demographic growth. As expected, the county town of Portlaoise, which has the largest population, continues to dominate the Laois retail hierarchy, accounting for approximately 89% of all approved retail floorspace including an additional shopping centre. Outside of Portlaoise, the level of approved retail floorspace in the county has been greatest in Portarlington, Mountmellick and Ballylynan. In this regard, retail supply is largely a market response to increased retail demand. Clearly, therefore, despite the retail strategy‘s laudable objective of seeking to provide a balanced spread of retail opportunities across the county, it would seem that the emerging retail environment and pattern of new build is driven mainly by demographics. Conversely, for a variety of possible reasons, retail activity in centres like Mountrath, Rathdowney, Stradbally and Durrow has been virtually negligible since 2006. An Bord Pleanala has refused pemission on appeal for a third [20,085 sq, metres] of all approved net retail floorspace in County Laois since 2006, including the Tesco Stores in Abbeyleix and Portarlington and the GAA site and another site on Old Knockmay Road in Portlaoise. The recession is having major implications in terms of retail spending and the roll-out of approved retail space in County Laois. For 2018, it is estimated that the net retail capacity for County Laois will be in the order of c. 20,903 square metres. 5 Retail Strategy 2011-2017 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.0.1 The Forward Planning Section of Laois County Council has undertaken a review of the Retail Strategy 2003 as part of the preparatory process for the review of the Laois County Development ‗Laois County Council commissioned Plan 2010. This Retail Strategy is informed by a report prepared by consultants to prepare the Laois Retail Braniff Consultants in 2006 which comprised of an update and review of Strategy in 2003. The Retail Strategy forms the 2003 County Retail Strategy (see quote from plan). the basis on which the Planning Authority will formulate appropriate development plan 1.0.2 Ideally, in order to allow for a degree of continuity in strategy objectives and policies for retail development formulation, the 2005 National Retail Planning Guidelines recommend in its area and will be used in the that a review of the retail strategy should take place no less than every determination of applications for planning 6 years (see quote below).