CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY: CHALLENGES AND PLAYERS HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION _________ APRIL 13, 2011 _________ Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON : 2011 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Hon. WILLIAM A. REINSCH, Chairman DANIEL M. SLANE, Vice Chairman Commissioners: CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW JEFFREY L. FIEDLER DANIEL A. BLUMENTHAL Hon. PATRICK A. MULLOY PETER T.R. BROOKES Hon. DENNIS C. SHEA ROBIN CLEVELAND MICHAEL R. WESSEL Hon. C. RICHARD D’AMATO LARRY M.WORTZEL MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director KATHLEEN J. MICHELS, Associate Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C.§ 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the "Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003," Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109-108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law No. 110- 161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. ii CONTENTS _____ WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2011 CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY: CHALLENGES AND PLAYERS Opening remarks of Commissioner Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair)……………………….....1 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..3 Opening remarks of Commissioner Peter T.R. Brookes (Hearing Co-Chair)……………………….……….4 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….. 5 PANEL I: CONGRESSIONAL PERSPECTIVE Statement of Dana Rohrabacher, a U.S. Representative from the State of California……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………6 Prepared statement……………………………………………………………………………………………………….……… 9 PANEL II: ADMINISTRATION PERSPECTIVES Statement of Mr. Daniel J. Kritenbrink, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, Washington, DC…………………………………….…15 Prepared statement…………………………………………………………………………………………………..………….21 Statement of Mr. David Helvey, Principal Director for East Asia, Asia Pacific Security Affairs, Department of Defense, Arlington, Virginia…………………………………………………………..…..24 Prepared statement……………………………………………………………………………………………………….……..29 Panel II: Discussion, Questions and Answers…………………………………………………………………………34 PANEL III: EMERGING ISSUES IN CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY Statement of Dr. J. Peter Pham, Director, Michael S. Ansari Africa Center, Atlantic Council, Washington, DC………………………………………………………………………………………………………….52 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………………56 Statement of Alan M. Wachman, Associate Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts……………..…..63 Prepared statement……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..67 Statement of Mr. Andrew Small, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Brussels, Belgium……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..77 Prepared statement…………………………………………………………………………………………………..………….80 Panel III: Discussion, Questions and Answers……………………………………………………………..…………..85 iv PANEL IV: CHINA’S RELATIONS WITH SELECT COUNTRIES OF CONCERN Statement of Dr. Victor D. Cha, D.S. Song Professor of Government and Director or Asian Studies, Georgetown University, and Senior Adviser and Korean Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC…………………………………………………...….101 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…104 Statement of Dr. John W. Garver, Professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia………………………………………………….….108 Prepared statement…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….111 Statement of Dr. Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute, Washington, DC……………………………………………..125 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…..127 Panel IV: Discussion, Questions and Answers…………………………………………………………………..……135 PANEL V: NEW INTEREST GROUPS IN CHINESE POLICY Statement of Dr. Yu-Wen Julie Chen, Visiting Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia……………………………………………………...151 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…154 Statement of Dr. Erica Downs, Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC…………………………………………………………………………………………………..158 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…161 Statement of Ms. Susan V. Lawrence, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC…………………………………………………………………………………………………..……164 Prepared statement…………………………………………………………………………………………………………....168 Panel V: Discussion, Questions and Answers……………………………………………………………………..….173 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Statement for the Record from Bill Johnson, U.S. Congressman from the State of Ohio………..192 Additional Comments for the Record from David Helvey (Panel II)…………………………………………194 Additional Comments for the Record from Alan M. Wachman (Panel III).………………………………195 v CHINA'S FOREIGN POLICY: CHALLENGES AND PLAYERS WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2011 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, D.C. The Commission met in Room 216, Hart Senate Office Building, Washington, D.C. at 8:40 a.m., Chairman William A. Reinsch, and Commissioners Carolyn Bartholomew and Peter T.R. Brookes, (Hearing Co- Chairs), presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW HEARING CO-CHAIR HEARING CO-CHAIR BARTHOLOMEW: Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for being here today. This is the fifth hearing of this year's annual reporting cycle. We're going to be focusing on China's foreign policy: challenges and players. I'm Carolyn Bartholomew, the co-Chair of this hearing, and I'll do an opening statement, and then my co-Chair, Peter Brookes, will do his, and we'll wait for Congressman Rohrabacher. As China's overseas interests and presence expand, so too will the range of foreign policy challenges Beijing faces. Addressing these challenges adeptly and successfully will require new ways of thinking about foreign policy priorities and new ways to implement them. At the same time, an increasing presence on the world stage inevitably creates tension for the Chinese government between safeguarding its overseas interests and its long-standing state position of opposing interference in other countries' internal affairs. How elastic is the concept of noninterference in internal affairs? 1 For example, as the West has struggled to respond to events in Libya, a country with 36,000 Chinese workers and a large source of Chinese oil imports, Beijing supported U.N. sanctions against the Qadafi regime. It then abstained from supporting the use of military force to prevent a humanitarian crisis and subsequently criticized the actions of Western coalition forces. Can we expect China to move further along the continuum of foreign policy actions? Will the Chinese government's decisions be systematic or on an ad hoc basis? Is there a new emerging China doctrine influenced and shaped by new parties, and if so, what does this mean for U.S. diplomacy? As Beijing flexes its muscles, it has strong new tools to employ, including increased economic leverage especially in light of the global financial crisis. Both developing and developed countries welcome Chinese trade, investment and economic aid. Europe, for example, is actively pursuing Chinese assistance for addressing its sovereign debt crisis, and countries from Suriname to Kenya to Tonga are recipients of the fruits of China's growing economic power. So too are a number of "countries of concern." Yet, Beijing's open arms and deep pockets raise concerns in many countries. For example, some in the developing world see Beijing's investment as a new form of colonialism while many struggle with displacement of domestic production by Chinese goods. The acquisition of resources is clearly guiding much Chinese investment. What else will the Chinese government expect in return for its generous terms and large investments? Will Chinese investment around the world shape the willingness of countries to challenge China on its policies or behavior? And while the challenges China faces in foreign policy grow in scope and complexity, there may also be changes occurring in China's foreign policy apparatus. Some of our witnesses today will discuss the emergence of new, or newly empowered, voices in China's foreign policymaking process. The roles of traditional foreign policy actors, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the People's Liberation Army, may be evolving. New actors, such as resource companies, financial institutions, local governments, and netizens, are coming on the scene. What