Feasibility Study of a Project for Establishing High-quality Energy Infrastructure outside Japan in 2018 (Study project for promoting overseas infrastructure development by Japanese enterprises) Development of a new value chain by reusing batteries of electric vehicles in Gujarat, India Report Feb. 2019 Toyota Tsusho Corporation EX Research Institute Ltd. Table of contents Abstract ________________________________________________________________ 1 1 Overview of Study _____________________________________________________ 2 1.1 Background and Purpose ________________________________________________ 2 1.2 Scope of Study __________________________________________________________ 2 1.3 Study methods _________________________________________________________ 3 1.4 Study schedule _________________________________________________________ 3 1.5 Study content and the report format _______________________________________ 4 2 Overview of the target country ___________________________________________ 6 2.1 Basic information _______________________________________________________ 6 2.2 Economy ______________________________________________________________ 7 2.3 Industry _______________________________________________________________ 7 2.3.1 Vehicles ____________________________________________________________________ 9 2.3.2 Items related to vehicles ______________________________________________________ 13 2.4 Governmental Policies __________________________________________________ 16 2.4.1 Manufacturing industry _______________________________________________________ 16 2.4.2 Transportation and urban traffic ________________________________________________ 17 2.4.3 Information and Communications _______________________________________________ 18 3 Study on the Current Status of Electric Vehicles ___________________________ 20 3.1 Overview of Indian electric vehicles _______________________________________ 20 3.1.1 Definition of an electric vehicle_________________________________________________ 20 3.1.2 Classification of electric vehicles _______________________________________________ 20 3.1.3 Number of electric vehicles ____________________________________________________ 20 3.2 Potential of replacement demand of automobiles ____________________________ 23 3.3 Outlook for Electrification ______________________________________________ 24 3.3.1 Relevant government agencies and organizations for the popularization of electric vehicles __ 24 3.3.2 National policies and subsidy programs for electric vehicles __________________________ 31 3.3.3 Policies and subsidy programs for electric vehicles in major states _____________________ 39 3.4 Study on Activities of Japanese Enterprises ________________________________ 43 3.4.1 Situation of Japanese enterprises’ activities, such as development and sales of electric vehicles 43 3.4.2 Intentions, visions, etc. of efforts in India and Gujarat _______________________________ 46 3.5 Efforts by India and Foreign Companies ___________________________________ 47 3.5.1 Status of the efforts, such as development and sales of electric vehicles _________________ 47 3.5.2 Summary of the intentions, visions, etc. of efforts in India and Gujarat __________________ 56 i 3.6 Summary of a Study on the Current Status of Electric Vehicles ________________ 57 3.6.1 Summary of the Trend of Electric Vehicles in India _________________________________ 57 3.6.2 Summary of the prediction of the spread of EVs in India and Gujarat ___________________ 57 3.6.3 Summary of the potential of the battery reuse market in India and Gujarat _______________ 61 3.6.4 Summary of the potential for the advancement of Japanese companies __________________ 61 4 Development situation and outlook of charging stations _____________________ 63 4.1 Development situation and outlook of charging stations in India _______________ 63 4.1.1 Development situation and requirements for charging stations _________________________ 63 4.1.2 Summary of the outlook for development of charging stations and others ________________ 73 4.2 National measures, etc. _________________________________________________ 76 4.2.1 Policies and subsidy system of India for the development of charging stations (current status and outlook)） ________________________________________________________________________ 76 4.2.2 Policies and subsidy system related to the arrangement of charging stations in major states (current status and outlook) __________________________________________________________ 79 4.3 Activities of Japanese, Indian and other foreign companies ___________________ 82 4.3.1 Summary of the initiatives including the development and sale of charging stations ________ 82 4.3.2 Summary of the intentions, visions, etc. of initiatives taken by India and Gujarat __________ 88 4.4 Operation methods and business schemes of charging stations in India __________ 89 4.4.1 A study on the operation methods and business schemes of charging stations in Japan and other countries (the U.S., China, the U.K., France, the Netherlands, etc.) ____________________________ 89 4.4.2 Operation methods and business schemes for charging stations in India ________________ 101 4.4.3 Summary of major business schemes for developing and operating charging stations ______ 102 5 Feasibility of Battery Reuse Projects ____________________________________ 105 5.1 Efforts of Japanese Companies __________________________________________ 105 5.1.1 Organize the status of Japanese companies’ initiatives such as battery reuse and diversion of electric vehicles __________________________________________________________________ 105 5.1.2 Organization of intention and direction of efforts in India and Gujarat __________________ 108 5.2 Efforts of India and other countries ______________________________________ 109 5.2.1 Organization of status of efforts towards battery diversion business for electric vehicles and battery diversion demand in India and other countries (the U.S., China, the UK, France, Netherlands, etc.) 109 5.2.2 Consideration of reuse demand in India and Gujarat Province ________________________ 114 5.3 Study on Demand for Battery Rebuilding _________________________________ 114 5.4 Study on Demand for Battery Reuse _____________________________________ 114 5.4.1 Study on Battery Reuse Related companies ______________________________________ 114 5.4.2 Organization of Battery Reuse _________________________________________________ 117 5.4.3 Organization of Requirements for Implementation of Battery Reuse Business ___________ 118 5.5 Summary of Battery Reuse Business Feasibility Study ______________________ 119 5.5.1 Organization of the Situation __________________________________________________ 119 5.5.2 Consideration ______________________________________________________________ 120 ii 6 Review of business contents ___________________________________________ 121 6.1 Review of business plan ________________________________________________ 121 6.1.1 Battery reuse business _______________________________________________________ 121 6.1.2 Prediction of number of electric vehicles/batteries generated _________________________ 121 6.2 Business performance evaluation ________________________________________ 122 6.2.1 Organization of preconditions _________________________________________________ 122 6.2.2 Estimate of revenue and expenditure ____________________________________________ 123 6.2.3 Business feasibility evaluation_________________________________________________ 123 6.3 Review of business implementation system ________________________________ 126 7 Prospects for utilization of policy support etc. ____________________________ 127 7.1 Review of utilization of policy support etc. ________________________________ 127 7.1.1 Battery recovery ___________________________________________________________ 127 7.1.2 Battery performance evaluation standard ________________________________________ 127 7.1.3 Battery handling, disposal ____________________________________________________ 127 7.1.4 Comprehensive legal system __________________________________________________ 128 7.1.5 Battery diversion ___________________________________________________________ 128 7.2 Consideration of utilizing policy support __________________________________ 128 7.2.1 Construction of systems, including obligation of battery recovery _____________________ 128 7.2.2 Designing of the system and the development of laws to enhance the value of system stabilization ______________________________________________________________________ 129 7.2.3 The aid and tax reduction systems for battery reuse business _________________________ 129 2 8 Calculation of CO emission suppression amount based on energy, Environmental Improvement Effect – Influence on Environmental Society _____________________ 130 8.1 Calculation of CO2 emission suppression amount ___________________________ 130 8.2 Environmental impact _________________________________________________ 130 9 Confirming the superiority of Japanese companies/Predicting benefits to Japan 132 9.1 Superiority of Japanese companies _______________________________________ 132 9.2 Predicting benefits to Japan ____________________________________________ 132 9.2.1 Qualitative effect ___________________________________________________________ 132 9.2.2 Quantitative effect __________________________________________________________ 133 10 Estimation of possibility of lateral development to other countries etc. and measures to promote development _________________________________________