Europe Regional consultation in preparation for EWC-II 28-29 July 2003 - Potsdam, Germany Federal Foreign Office REGIONAL CONSULTATION EUROPE REPORT FOR EWC II by Erich J. Plate Regional Consultation Europe Report for EWC II. (by Erich J. Plate) INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................................................... 2 DISASTER PATTERN: NATURAL DISASTERS IN EUROPE ............................................................................................. 3 Storm surges. ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Floods: .................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Storms:.................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Hail storms:........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Wild land fires: ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Winter hazards: ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Land slides:........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Earthquakes:.......................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Volcanoes.............................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Secondary effects of natural extreme events:........................................................................................................................ 8 Industrial accidents: .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Biological dangers: ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 Space weather: ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Conclusion: ........................................................................................................................................................................... 9 ADVANCES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR EFFECTIVE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS................................................... 10 Early warning in the context of risk management............................................................................................................... 10 Risk management: the planning process........................................................................................................................ 10 Risk management: Operation......................................................................................................................................... 11 The process of early warning .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Design conditions for an Early Warning System. .......................................................................................................... 12 Definition of an Early Warning Process. ....................................................................................................................... 13 The forecasting system. ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Communication of forecasts to the decision maker. ...................................................................................................... 14 The process of deciding on a warning............................................................................................................................ 14 The process of transmitting the warning to the people : ................................................................................................ 15 Dialogue for improving warning services:..................................................................................................................... 15 NATIONAL PLANNING: IMPROVING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS IN EUROPE..................................................... 16 Organization of Early Warning in European Countries ...................................................................................................... 16 Research efforts in Europe on Early Warning..................................................................................................................... 16 Forecasting of meteorological extreme events.................................................................................................................... 18 Space observations and mapping for disaster mitigation and early warning....................................................................... 19 Early Warning for Floods in Europe ................................................................................................................................... 20 Flood Early Warning in the UK..................................................................................................................................... 20 Flood Early Warning in Germany.................................................................................................................................. 20 Flood Early Warning in the Czech Republic ................................................................................................................. 21 Early Warnings for Storms.................................................................................................................................................. 21 Early Warning for Wildland fires........................................................................................................................................ 22 New developments......................................................................................................................................................... 22 Future needs................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Early Warning for Winter Hazards ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Early Warning for Earthquakes:.......................................................................................................................................... 23 Early Warning for Pollution hazards................................................................................................................................... 26 European Joint Efforts of Early Warning: Learning from Past Experience......................................................................... 26 NEEDS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 27 General recommendations:.................................................................................................................................................. 27 Special recommendations for improving early warning in Europe ..................................................................................... 28 Improve data collection and availability:....................................................................................................................... 29 Improve short and medium range forecasting and investigate long term perspectives: ................................................. 30 Improve the chain of warning........................................................................................................................................ 30 Improve the training of people involved in early warning and risk management. ......................................................... 31 Other issues in Early Warning ............................................................................................................................................ 31 RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FOR THE FUTURE: ............................................................................................................ 32 References:............................................................................................................................................................................... 38 1 Regional Consultation Europe Report for EWC II. Erich J. Plate, 4 August 2003 INTRODUCTION The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, which ended in 1999, has