Insight and Intelligence on the European and International (Re)insurance Markets 23 OCTOBER 2017 22 OCTOBER 2017 MONDAY SUNDAY BADEN-BADEN Industry cannot afford to rely on post-event turn: Nash hose (re)insurance industry ensured survival,” Nash told the audience. “All of these are disrupting the world order,” Tparticipants waiting for a widespread “For them to survive they need to find new he said. market turn following major catastrophe and better ways of doing business.” However, people and organisations will losses will not necessarily survive in Commenting on the conference’s theme always want to protect their assets, and lay today’s fast-paced and rapidly evolving of disruption, Nash argued that the industry off some of their risk to others, the executive world, the president of Guy Carpenter’s was not unfamiliar with the concept. explained. international division has claimed. He pointed to the way in which the There will also always be those with capital Speaking at the Guy Carpenter Baden- creation of the Bermuda market had willing to assume that risk, he added. Baden Reinsurance Symposium yesterday, changed the status quo for catastrophe “In between and around those poles, James Nash emphasised the importance of writers at Lloyd’s, how catastrophe models everything is subject to change,” Nash said. innovation in achieving success as the pace had altered the market’s view of risk, and At the event, Munich Re CEO Joachim of change in the sector accelerates. how the entry of new capital had “stirred up” Wenning echoed Nash’s comments in a later Nash said that the capital structure of the the market as previous examples of change. keynote speech. industry had changed significantly in recent But “the pace and diversity of disruption is “Disruption does not automatically bring years, with the most dramatic change taking changing”, Nash said. opportunities, the industry must earn them,” place in the last five years. New sources of data, such as telematics he said. And following a succession of Q3 cat losses, and the Internet of Things, as well as new Clients are changing the way they do it is now waiting to see how the capital ways of using this data, are changing the business, and the (re)insurance industry markets players respond. way the world conducts its business, he must create innovative, digital products to “If the theory plays out in practice, those explained. suit their needs, the CEO continued. participants waiting for the market to react Emerging products are creating new risks, “Going forward, digital transformation with rationing of capacity – followed by while workflow, processes and distribution – of data and technology – will serve as a significantly higher prices – will no longer be methods are also changing, Nash continued. bridgehead to sophisticate our value drivers.” 03 Superyacht claim to 06 Munich Re Syndicate Kessler, CEO, Scor cost EUR40mn moves into marine XoL 17 Insurance stocks rise 04 Cyber demand surges 08 Swiss reinsurers in Q3 despite losses INS IDE 05 Zurich to market post full year loss 21 Interview: Emmanuel £2bn UK EL book 13 Interview: Denis Clarke, CEO, PartnerRe BRINGING OPPORTUNITY TO RISK ADAPTATION + OPPORTUNITY = GROWTH From piracy to privacy Let’s turn digital threats into client’s trust. Find out more at munichre.com/cyber 10.9.17_Privacy_215,9x279,4_en.indd 1 10.10.17 15:58 COMMENT AIR is from Mars, RMS is from Venus ake no mistake about it, at times This is what the magnificent seven How could models be wrong this time? Mlike these, the modelling and ratings windstorms did – they multiplied the Unfortunately, the Maria modelled loss agencies are the de facto regulators of running average and piled on the pain. numbers tell a different story. the marketplace. (Thanks to Nicolas Taleb’s The Black Swan for RMS says $15bn-$30bn. AIR says The last time they had this much power the analogy). $40bn-$85bn. How could this possibly be? at their disposal was in 2005 and 2006 after There is no overlap. Not only is there no $85bn of Katrina, Rita and Wilma losses In statistical space, no one overlap, but the difference between one’s had been cranked through the reinsurance “ highest estimate and the other’s lowest is pipes. can hear you scream $10bn. Modellers had the hardest time of it. They ” The two estimates orbit on different had seriously underestimated the impact of planets with a huge expanse of emptiness flood and demand surge on industry storm Understandably, there was some between them. damage and this left them with egg on their questioning of the wisdom of this So either one is right and one is wrong or, faces. methodology and plenty of grumbling, if the loss is somewhere in the $30bn-$40bn What’s more, KRW followed a very active but the new average was duly loaded into range, both are wrong. 2004 season that had already produced the models on top of all the flood, demand But as all good quantum physicists know, four Florida landfalls in the form of Charley, surge and other adjustments. sometimes light can behave like a wave or Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. Market wags Then came the final tweak – it was over to like a particle. It can be two things at once. would describe Wilma as the seventh the ratings agencies for their interpretation. Indeed, how you observe it will actually hurricane of the 15-month 2004/05 season. They largely accepted the new output change the light from one form to another. This meant that models incorporating from the models and loaded on an Perhaps insured losses exhibit similar a short-term average loss adjustment extra prescription of caution, as well as behaviour and both estimates can be suddenly had to include a prior period that diversification for good measure. simultaneously right…? held a septet of US landfalling hurricanes. The result was a slow squeeze. New start- Meanwhile, back in the real world, us They had been beaten by the statistical ups had to promise pretty strong returns (re)insurance mortals are at the mercy of the equivalent of trying to estimate the to get over the A- hurdle and incumbents theoretical Gods. average earnings in a random roomful of knew that they had to push for real rate In statistical space, no one can hear you professional men. rises or risk a downgrade. scream. If you know reasonable factors like age, That was then and this is now. profession and nationality you can very Models are 12 years more sophisticated. soon come to a realistic and statistically These days Google has an AI robot that can accurate figure for what the average wage teach itself to beat the best Chinese Go of the room will be. masters from scratch in 30 days. Satellites The problem comes when Warren Buffett can see what you are having for dinner on Mark Geoghegan, Managing Director suddenly walks in and increases your any given night and drones can fly where average by a factor of 100. even the hardiest loss adjuster fears to tread. [email protected] Saudi superyacht claim to cost market EUR40mn+ superyacht that ran aground in Salman reportedly bought the yacht, throne of Saudi Arabia. The 32-year-old A the Red Sea is expected to cost which has a total insured value of is the youngest defence minister in the the Lloyd’s marine market EUR40mn EUR420mn, in 2015 from the Russian world and is spearheading the listing of ($47.2mn), The Insurance Insider oligarch Yuri Shefler. According to the New Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, on understands. York Times story, Shefler moved off the international stock exchanges. The Serene, one of the largest superyachts yacht the same day. The loss will add extra pressure to an in the world, hit a reef on the Egyptian The protection and indemnity (P&I) insurer already strained yacht insurance market. coast not far from Sharm El Sheikh in late for the vessel is British Marine, a subsidiary Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have August. of QBE Europe, according to data on the inflicted significant pain on yacht insurers, The yacht is insured in Lloyd’s through liability insurer’s website. with losses from the latter two events set to the lead yacht consortium, which is led by There was no oil leak from the yacht. Any run to hundreds of millions of dollars. MS Amlin, according to market sources. damage to the reef could result in a liability The Insurance Insider reported on 10 Following markets include a number of claim, but it is not thought that such a claim November that Norwegian Hull Club had other Lloyd’s syndicates. has yet been made. tapped reinsurers for $105mn following The Serene is owned by the Crown Prince Nevertheless, the Serene was towed away catastrophe losses from Irma in the of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad Bin Salman, from the reef by tugboats – something Caribbean. Muhammad bin Salman could the New York Times reported in a profile of which is likely to generate a P&I claim. not be reached for comment. MS Amlin the prince published in 2016. Muhammad Bin Salman is the heir to the declined to comment. DAY 2: MONDAY 03 NEWS NEWS Carriers must be allowed to recoup HIM losses: Munich Re he (re)insurance sector will lose its In the same session, James Nash, president Wenning said start-ups are “good at Tappeal to investors if it cannot begin of Guy Carpenter’s international business, one single activity but they couldn’t to recover some of the losses sustained noted that the catastrophes had generated potentially with their proposition replace an from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria several “known unknowns” ahead of the 1.1 incumbent”.