The Elephant in the Room: The Rise and Role of India in the Climate Change Negotiations. by Kim Coetzee, BA(Hons), MSocSc Thesis Presented for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the Energy Research Centre in the Department of Mechanical Engineering UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN University of Cape Town November 2015 The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Published by the University of Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University of Cape Town Abstract The climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have been ongoing since the first conference of the parties in 1995. Twenty years on there has been little progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the climate regime is in a state of flux and the role of developing countries therein is changing. During this period the majority of the work on climate change from within the International Relations discipline has been framed in a neoliberal institutionalist or neorealist frame. Studies in the climate policy canon have been predominantly similarly located, albeit implicitly. In its focus on India this dissertation provides a bridge between the climate policy literature and the theoretically framed climate change policy studies in the International Relations literature. This dissertation employs the Critical International Relations theoretical framework of Robert Cox. His theory outlines a ‘framework for action’ that enables and constrains how states act, and how they conceive of their agency. This framework, or historical structure, is created by a particular configuration of the forces exerted by ideas, institutions, and material capabilities, which when aligned, create a hegemonic historical structure. In the climate negotiations, India has been a vocal proponent of the ideas of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities from the earliest days of the Convention. India’s changing material circumstances and geo-political status in the past decade raised the question of its role in the regime in relation to its long-supported ideas. This is a qualitative case study using documentary evidence triangulated with interview data from a range of key Indian stakeholders. I found that in the transition from abstract principle to operational precept the intersubjective idea of addressing climate change did not transmute into an intersubjectively shared idea of differentiation. Furthermore, once the idea of differentiation was to be operationalised in the negotiations, its primacy, indeed its very “intersubjectiveness”, was contested by the idea of symmetry of obligations and responsibility. The ongoing regime flux is the outcome of this contestation between ideas held collectively by groups, as no stabilising hegemonic historical structure has been created. India’s emergence has been insufficient to reinstate differentiation as an intersubjectively held idea and it is thus unable to secure a hegemonic historical structure in favour of differentiation. i Dedication This work is dedicated to Deirdre who is deeply and daily missed. Life is a process of becoming, a combination of states we have to go through. Where people fail is that they wish to elect a state and remain in it. This is a kind of death. – Anais Nin – Most people believe the mind to be a mirror, more or less accurately reflecting the world outside them, not realizing on the contrary that the mind is itself the principal element of creation. – Rabindranath Tagore – iii The Elephant in the Room: the Rise and Role of India in the Climate Change Negotiations. ___________________ Acknowledgements It is said that it takes a village to raise a child; well, this is my child, and these are the people who inhabit this village. My thanks go to Harald and Stef for creating the MAPS Programme and inviting me to be part of it whilst pursuing my PhD research. The contacts made and opportunities gained were crucial to finishing. Undertaking this long-term project would also have been impossible without the African Climate and Development Initiative’s (ACDI) Carnegie Mellon Scholarship for which I am extremely grateful. In addition, the financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily attributed to the NRF. The highlight of my fieldwork was the Fellowship with the Climate Initiative (CI) at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. Thanks to Dr Navroz Dubash for the opportunity, the funding, a place to work and introductions to senior members of the Indian climate policy establishment. Navroz, Anu, Neha, Vyoma, Shibani, Radikha and Lavanya (even in your absence) – thank you for graciously welcoming me into your space and looking out for me. I look forward to working with you all in future. Thanks go to my interviewees for taking the time to answer the questions posed by a stranger and thus broaden my horizons and deepen my knowledge. I was incredibly lucky to have Prof. Harald Winkler as my supervisor. His encyclopeadic knowledge of the IPCC and the UNFCCC is incredible and his steadfast encouragement (and not a little) patience over the years have been invaluable to me. In addition, Harald’s work ethic and prodigious output is simultaneously intimidating and motivating! My good fortune continued when Dr Karen Smith in the Politics Department at UCT agreed to co- supervise; not only is Karen an impressive IR scholar, but her research interests include India and she is both inspiring and caring. Crucially, Karen kept her door open to me and she was always willing to engage and help me find a path out of any IR theory wilderness. To the wonderful women of the Thursday Writers’ circle – Lucia, Aditi, Jennifer, Nicki, Erna, Shanali, Theresa and Carolyn – meeting weekly kept me sane and helped me hone this craft of writing. Every writer should have such a safe space for feedback, critique and laughter. Those of you ahead of me in the PhD writing process personified Madiba’s words that “it always seems impossible until it’s done”. To all my friends who cheered me from the side-lines and kept my spirits up, read drafts, or simply reminded me that there was a life beyond the PhD – Anya, Siham, Marta, Holle, Malcolm, Lucy, Rowen, Annwyn, Nick, Clinton, Rheka, Ian, Caroline, Luke & Marja, Ursh, Britta, Kat, Aalia, Sam, Carla and Jiska – I’d have struggled to make it this far without you all. Thanks! And lastly, my thanks go to DSL who helped me navigate through the swamplands and who (still) reminds me of Robert Frost’s phrase: “the best way out is always through”. iv Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... i Dedication ................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... iv List of figures ............................................................................................................................. ix List of tables .............................................................................................................................. xi Abbreviations and glossary ....................................................................................................... xiii Selected UNFCCC country groupings .................................................................................. xvii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Question ......................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Background .................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 The science of climate change ................................................................................ 3 1.2.2 Institutional background ......................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Geopolitical milieu .................................................................................................. 8 1.3 Situating the research in the literature ......................................................................... 10 1.4 Theoretical framework ..................................................................................................15 1.5 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 16 1.6 Chapter outline ............................................................................................................ 16 2 Robert Cox’s theory of the configuration of forces ............................................................... 19 2.1 Robert W. Cox: a brief biography .................................................................................. 20 2.2 Use of Cox’s theory ....................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Historicism: ontology