Chapter 5. Measuring progress “Nothing exists until it is measured.” (Niels Bohr) Most attention and resources have been dedicated to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and measurement towards their achievement. In September 2000, world leaders adopted the United This chapter discusses broader and aggregate measures of Nations Millennium Declaration, which committed their nations to a sustainable development progress. There are three fundamentally global partnership to reduce extreme poverty and set out a series different approaches to measuring overall progress towards of time-bound targets - to be achieved by 2015 - that have become sustainable development. known as the MDGs. Most of the goals had already been included The first approach uses indicators and official data to measure in Agenda 21. The goals target poverty and hunger eradication, progress against a number of internationally agreed commitments universal primary education, gender equality, child and maternal health, HIV/AIDS combat, environmental sustainability and global (section 5.1). Hence, whether a trend is considered to be good partnership. Progress towards the 8 MDGs and their 20 targets are progress depends primarily on the level of ambition in the original monitored by more than 60 indicators. The indicators for MDGs 1-7 goal/target setting, which is not necessarily rooted in scientific or measure outcomes in developing countries and are thus indirect objective criteria. measures of the success/failure of the world community in achieving The second approach is based on aggregate indicators of sustainable the goals. Ten out of the twelve indicators used to monitor MDG 8 development progress that have been suggested by analysts and “Develop a global partnership for development”, can - with opposite scientists (section 5.2). This approach is also primarily based on signs - also be measured in the donor country in order to follow the official data. The aggregate indicators differ greatly in terms of their development of their contribution to a more equitable world. These focus, reflecting the different perspectives and values of the individual indicators show progress in ODA, market access and debt. analysts that created them. This report illustrates and quantifies a Chapter 3 already presented the results of the most comprehensive progress index that is a simple and minimal adjustment to the GDP. review to date of implementation of Agenda 21 and of the Rio The third approach complements the first and the second approach- Principles. It also provided an overview of progress towards es. It complements official data from surveys with highly spatially achievement of agreed goals and targets for the 19 areas that were disaggregated and temporally frequent non-official data from a va- initially on the agenda of the OWG on SDGs. (The areas identified by Member States include poverty eradication, food security and riety of sources such as remote sensing, mobile telecommunication sustainable agriculture, water and sanitation, energy, education, devices, road traffic, and user-based crowdsourcing. The third ap- health, employment, biodiversity, oceans, forest, sustainable proach has cheaper marginal costs as it uses data already available consumption and production, and means of implementation.) Table and can more easily and more quickly fill data gaps in the poorest 24 shows that for each of the 19 areas there are existing goals and regions, but it is technically the most demanding (section 5.3). targets, as well international assessments and reports that provide information on trends that can be used to assess progress against the goals. We distinguish three categories: 5.1. Measuring progress towards internationally agreed commitments π On track: the commitment is being implemented or expected to meet the target as planned, but further steps should be taken. The first approach uses indicators and official data to measure progress against internationally agreed commitments. There are π Off track: slow progress - expected to meet the target beyond hundreds of such commitments, some quantifiable others not. the agreed time frame, or slipping backwards or stagnating. It should be noted that following Agenda 21’s call for sustainable π Mixed progress: due to reasons such as heterogeneity, it is development indicators, the CSD recommended a list of 140 difficult to evaluate progress as a whole. indicators and a subset of 58 indicators, which aimed to cover The trend information and projections from the global scenario the social, economic, environmental and institutional aspects of literature (chapter 3) were then used to illustrate the consequences 199 sustainable development, as captured in Agenda 21. In order to of dynamics-as-usual scenario. Based on suggestions in the measure progress, however, corresponding sustainable development scientific literature and results of sustainable development 200 goals and targets must also be defined. “…A given indicator does scenarios (chapter 3), potential future sustainable development not say anything about sustainability, unless a reference value such goals were then suggested for 2030 or 2050 (Table 24). as thresholds is given to it”.201 Many such threshold targets have been agreed in Agenda 21, the MDGs, the Johannesburg Programme of Significant development gains have been achieved, even though Implementation and in other United Nations forums. Some of these some challenges are still daunting. For example, the MDG poverty thresholds originated from scientific studies, others were decided reduction target was reached five years ahead of schedule, as the on a purely political basis. Hence, this approach measures whether proportion of people living on US$1.25 a day or less fell from 47 per progress was made against the agreed political commitments, but cent in 1990 to 24 per cent by 2008, a reduction from over 2 billion to does not necessarily measure progress against what the scientific less than 1.4 billion people. The progress in developing Eastern Asia consensus considers to be essential for achieving sustainable has been especially rapid, with extreme poverty falling from over half development. the population in 1990 to 14 per cent in 2008.202, 203 Africa has enjoyed 74 | Prototype Global Sustainable Development Report growth in the past decade unprecedented by historical standards, and 5.2. Global initiatives on measuring overall progress the average poverty rate has declined from 58 per cent in 1999 to 48 per cent in 2008.202 The second approach to measure progress is based on aggregate indicators of sustainable development progress that have been Several global environmental problems have become more acute, suggested by analysts and scientists. This approach is primarily including in the areas of food, energy, land, biodiversity and climate. based on official data. The aggregate indicators differ greatly in Scientists have pointed to thresholds (or “tipping points”) in the Earth’s terms of their focus, reflecting the different perspectives and values system beyond which irreversible changes might have enormous of the individual analysts that created them. Next we provide an impacts on humanity’s survival. In particular, it was suggested that overview of a number of global initiatives for progress measurement at least three planetary boundaries had already been breached. driven by the need to complement GDP since 1990s. Thereafter, we’ll also illustrate and quantify a progress index that is a simple Box 6. SDG criteria agreed by Member States in the Rio+20 outcome document and minimal adjustment to GDP - measuring the “good” GDP and wealth. We conclude with a novel technology-based approach In paragraph 246 of the Rio+20 outcome document, Member States agreed that a that allows assessment of sustainable development progress at set of SDGs must: multiple scales (section 5.3). • Be based on Agenda 21 and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI); • Fully respect all the Rio Principles; Box 7. Potential sustainable development goals/targets that have been • Respect national policies and priorities; • Be consistent with international law; suggested by scientists • Build upon commitments already made; • Contribute to the full implementation of the outcomes of all major summits in the 1. Eliminate extreme poverty worldwide by 2050; economic, social and environmental fields, including the Rio+20 outcome document; 2. Halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015, further halve it by 2030, • Focus on priority areas for the achievement of sustainable development, being guided by and eradicate hunger by 2050; the outcome document; 3. Ensure universal access to improved water source and basic sanitation by 2050; • Address and incorporate in a balanced way all three dimensions of sustainable 4. Ensure universal health coverage; development and their interlinkages; 5. Ensure universal primary education by 2020; universal secondary education by 2030; • Be coherent with and integrated into the United Nations development agenda beyond 6. Create 63 million decent new jobs per year until 2050, achieving full, productive and 2015; decent employment for all; • Not divert focus or effort from the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; 7. Eliminate overfishing and restore fish stocks; • Include active involvement of all relevant stakeholders, as appropriate. 8. Stabilize biodiversity at the 2020/2030 level (depending on region) by 2050; 9. Ensure no net forest loss and no more destruction of primary