Composite indicators for monitoring regional development – seven years of Portuguese experience MARIA Manuel PINHO Statistics Portugal Unit for the Coordination of Territorial Statistics [email protected] UNECE Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the Production of Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators 8-10 December 2015, Palais des Nations, Geneva AGENDA ° A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development ° Composite indicators – a new opportunity for National Statistical Systems ° ISDR – from an experimental project to a policy driven statistic ° A challenge for Statistics Portugal dissemination strategy UNECE, 8-10 December 2015 A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development • beyond GDP and other traditional indicators • a more comprehensive view of progress • a multidimensional approach of development Competitiveness the ability to penetrate markets and generate acceptable and economic growth equitable living conditions for a sustainable economic and social reproduction and territorial attractiveness Overall index a broad view of both of regional environmental living development conditions in the region, and environmental sustainability of Cohesion Environmental development process quality UNECE, 8-10 December 2015 A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development At the same time … regional development as the joint and interactive product of conditions , processes and outcomes → of the conditions for a better regional performance → of agents’ behaviour, especially private and public policies, which represent the processes intended to make the best use of the existing conditions → which, in turn, lead to outcomes , which express the effectiveness in the improvement of regional well-being and sustainability UNECE, 8-10 December 2015 A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development Regional development Environmental Competitiveness Cohesion quality Processes Processes Processes Outcomes Outcomes Outcomes Conditions Conditions Conditions Mutable concepts over Time Space Conceptualization vs. New metrics UNECE, 8-10 December 2015 Composite indicators – a new opportunity for National Statistical Systems • relevance of composite indicators within this multidimensional approach • ability to integrate large amounts of information into easily understood formats and transform informa/on into -nowledge + both for analytical and political purposes • are becoming widely used to assess territorial units, performance in various areas + going beyond the standard statistical operations and demanding the assimilation of new concepts and A new challenge for National Statistical methodologies Systems + providing the results together with a metadata set that both reveals the methodology adopted and clearly delimits the aim and the analytical potentialities of the results UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 Composite indicators – a new opportunity for National Statistical Systems to monitor regional development Provision of a statistical tool to inform in a simple manner both citizens and policymakers about the progress achieved with regard to development E.perimental statistics • first release in 2009 • 2004 and 2006 data PT regional development • results for the 30 NUTS 3 regions composite indicator6 ISDR • estimations for Portugal and NUTS 2 − Agency for based on a partnership with a Statistics Development national public agency for Portugal development planning Planning 0M12TD34DPP5 − ta-ing advantage of the e.pertise statistical territorial of both institutions production analysis UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 Composite indicators – a new opportunity for National Statistical Systems the robustness of the composite indicator was supported by a sensitivity analysis and a joint debate with a group of experts in the fields of regional development and statistical analysis Conceptual relevance of the primary indicators → theoretical and statistical concepts, principal component analysis, correlation analysis Methodological options → normalization procedures (in a static scenario and in a dynamic one), aggregating and weighting procedures Joint analysis of alternative scenarios → regional volatility, sources of regional variation Ability to synthesize phenomena → comparison with other composite indicators, ‘fit to purpose’ analysis UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 ISDR – from an experimental project to a policy driven statistic Selection of (65) individual indicators + conceptual relevance • competitiveness 7 25 indicators • cohesion 7 25 indicators • environmental 8uality 7 15 indicators Sources + standard sta/s/cs 0 53 5 and administrative data 0 12 5 Data collection + 95 indicators : Portuguese NUTS level 3 regions Normalization of the primary indicators + sta/s/cal standardiza/on and minma. rescaling 0with the minimum and maximum values extracted from the overall dataset 5 UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 ISDR – from an experimental project to a policy driven statistic Aggregation and weighting procedures + non-weighted average • individual indicators level + dimensions level • dimensions level + overall inde. level Estimation of national and NUTS 2 scores + popula/on weighted average 4 composite indicators + Portugal = 00 • Competitiveness inde. • Cohesion inde. • Environmental 8uality inde. • 2verall inde. of regional development UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 ISDR – from an experimental project to a policy driven statistic reinforcing the advantages of composite 1fter the release of indicators as tools that inform in a simple manner the first e.ercise of about complex phenomena and their progress ISD3, the debate continued with stressing the importance of providing a statistical national and tool for direct policy use on an annual basis regional authorities → regular release In June 20 5, results were produced for the st time for the new Portuguese NUTS 3 and the dissemination time lag was reduced to ,5 years → relevant territorial breakdown → reduced dissemina>on >me lag the conceptual framewor- of the composite indicator must meet the needs of policyma-ing 9 assessing territorial cohesion UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 ISDR , from an e. erimental ro/ect to a olicy driven statistic • the 95 primary basic indicators were mainly selected from the 2007-20 3 PT- NSRF conte.t indicators set • since the first release, ISD3 is being using for monitoring the implementation of the 2007-20 3 PT-NS3A and included in the Portuguese annual reports on the e.ecution of the EU structural funds • ISD3 was considered as an ex ante conditionality for the 20 4 -2020 Portuguese Partnership 1greement 7 Portugal 2020 • in 20 3, the new local finance law assigned ISD3 with a new function in terms of policy decision-ma-ing A new lace for ISDR 2 … from the technical s here to the centre of the olitical debate → a new challenge for Statistics Portugal Overall inde. of regional develo ment :Portugal = 100) A NUTS 8, 2018 1M Lisboa 1lto Minho 1M Porto 3egiFo de 1veiro 3egiFo de Leiria 3egiFo de Coimbra CEvado 1ve Deiras e S. Estrela 1lentejo Central Dai.o 1lentejo 1lto 1lentejo Deira Dai.a MNdio Tejo 1lentejo Litoral 2este Quintiles LezMria do Tejo 4º 98,7 Viseu DFo LafLes 3º 97,3 Terras de TM 2º 95,4 1º 93,7 1lgarve 31 Madeira TImega e Sousa Douro 31 1Jores 1lto TImega 70 80 90100 00 0 20 0 50 Km PT Overall inde. of regional develo ment, com etitiveness, cohesion and environmental 1uality:Composite erformance indicators in relation to –the a natnewional challenge average for:Portugal National = 100) AStatistical NUTS 8, 2018 Systems ISDR > 100 ISDR < 100 COMP > 100 AM Lisboa COES > 100 AMB > 100 1 Group COMP > 100 Região de COES > 100 Aveiro AMB < 100 COMP > 100 COES < 100 AMB > 100 Group 2 2 GroupGroup 4 4 GroupGroup COMP < 100 Médio Tejo Frequencies COES > 100 Alto Minho Alentejo Central AMB > 100 Região de Leiria COMP > 100 COES < 100 AM Porto AMB < 100 1 2 1 3 11 7 COMP < 100 Região de Group 1 Cávado COES > 100 Coimbra Group 2 AMB < 100 Group 3 Group 3 Group 5 Group Alto Alentejo RA Açores Group 4 COMP < 100 Group 5 COES < 100 Ave RA Madeira AMB > 100 Group 6 Baixo Alentejo Tâmega e Sousa Algarve COMP < 100 Alentejo Litoral COES < 100 AMB < 100 Alto Tâmega Group 6 Group Douro 0 50 Km Overall inde. of regional develo ment, com etitiveness, cohesion and Compositeenvironmental indicators 1uality – a new challenge for:Portugal National = 100) AStatistical NUTS 8, 2018 Systems 2verall inde. Competitiveness Cohesion Environmental 8uality 75 80 85 90 95PT =00 100 05 0 5 A challenge for Statistics Portugal dissemination strategy Follows the standard multiple dissemination formats adopted for traditional statistical projects a press release 7 a description of the results supported by graphical elements and complemented with a brief description of the methodology web indicators 7 four indicators 0global development, competitiveness, cohesion and environmental 8uality5 feeding the online database at Statistics Portugal website a methodological document 7 a detailed description of the methodology following a predefined template used for all types of statistical projects UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 A challenge for Statistics Portugal dissemination strategy Issues arising from the specificity of composite indicators Transparency 9 the challenge to assure that all rimary data is available :confidentiality, administrative sources, 2) Contextual analysis 9 the challenge to rovide user -friendly tools to enable regional erformance com arisons and to obtain results according to users weighting o tions Methodological documentation 9 the challenge to discuss the metadata and 1uality standards suitable to statistical processes involving multiple data sources Production labelling 9 the challenge to fully ado t the 'fit for purpose' approach and its differentiated quality assurance consequences UNECE, 8- 0 December 20 5 Composite indicators for monitoring regional development – seven years of Portuguese experience MARIA Manuel PINHO Statistics Portugal Unit for the Coordination of Territorial Statistics [email protected] UNECE Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the Production of Leading, Com osite and Sentiment Indicators 8-10 December 2015, Palais des Nations, )eneva.