www.policymagazine.ca November—December 2018 Canadian Politics and Public Policy Trudeau, Trump and Trade: The New Deal $6.95 Volume 6—Issue 6 Through its various tree planting initiatives, including EcoConnexions – From the Ground Up, CN has planted 1.8 million trees across North America since 2012. This makes CN the leading private non-forestry company tree planter in Canada. www.cn.ca Your business doesn’t stop at the border. Neither does our expertise. At BMO, our team understands the complexities of doing business beyond Canada. So whether you’re considering expansion or already have existing cross border operations, we can offer the strategic advice, fi nancial resources and product solutions you need on both sides of the border. Capital Markets | Wealth Management | Commercial Banking | Global Asset Management ® Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere. TM Trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States and Canada. 18-2129_CM_Policy_Ad_Ev2.indd 1 2018-10-24 5:09 PM Peerless Clothing is the largest supplier of men’s and boy’s tailored clothing to most major department stores and speciality retail- ers in both the United States and Canada. Proudly Canadian / Fièrement canadien The largest manufacturer of men’s and boy’s tailored clothing in the world. www.peerless-clothing.com 1.800.336.9363 5 In This Issue 8 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Trudeau, Trump and Trade: The New Deal 9 Derek H. Burney Canadian Politics and Beyond USMCA: The Enemy is Complacency Public Policy 12 Douglas Porter EDITOR How Do You Spell Relief? U-S-M-C-A L. Ian MacDonald Sarah Goldfeder [email protected] 16 It Ain’t Over if Trump’s Not Winning: The USMCA Scoreboard ASSOCIATE EDITOR Drew Fagan Lisa Van Dusen 18 [email protected] Walking on the Razor’s Edge CONTRIBUTING WRITERS 20 Scotty Greenwood Thomas S. Axworthy, The Arc of a Friendship Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano, 22 Meredith Lilly Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper, The USMCA and the New Rules of the Road Rachel Curran, Susan Delacourt, Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, 25 John Weekes Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, How NAFTA Became the USMCA Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves, Column / Don Newman Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch, 28 Jeremy Kinsman, Andrew MacDougall, Trade Deal puts Canada with U.S. on China Carissima Mathen, Velma McColl, David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, Canada and the World Fen Osler Hampson, Robin V. Sears, Edward Greenspon and Kevin Lynch Gil Troy, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, 29 Anthony Wilson-Smith The Canada-China Trade Puzzle: A Sectoral Approach WEB DESIGN 33 Graham Fraser Nicolas Landry The Boring Campaign that Wasn’t [email protected] Column / Lori Turnbull SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR 36 Grace MacDonald New Brunswick: Trick or Treat [email protected] 37 Robin V. Sears GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Judging New Judges: The Confirmation Process Monica Thomas Bob Rooney [email protected] 39 The Importance of a Well-Timed Pause in Getting Bill C-69 Policy Right for All Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are copyrighted, but may be reproduced BOOK REVIEWS with permission and attribution in Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith print, and viewed free of charge at 42 the Policy home page at Power, Prime Ministers and the Press www.policymagazine.ca. Robert Lewis Printed and distributed by St. Joseph Review by Lisa Van Dusen Communications, 1165 Kenaston 43 Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Leadership in Turbulent Times Doris Kearns Goodwin Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounges across Canada, as well as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Now available on PressReader. Special thanks to our sponsors and advertisers. Cover image by Adam Scotti Connect with us: @policy_mag facebook.com/policymagazine November/December 2018 PDF/X-1a:2003 The future is on board More than ever, VIA Rail wants to connect Canadians to a sustainable future. Maximize your Reduce your Smarter value Connect productivity carbon footprint for taxpayers communities With Wi-Fi, power outlets, Making the smart choice It’s good for your bottom VIA Rail connects use of your cellphone and today helps contribute line and Canada’s, too. 4 million travellers comfy seats—you just to a greener tomorrow. and 400 communities might like the train more across Canada. than the office. Route # of daily Distance Productive Non-productive Cost of Cost of Taxpayer savings departures train time car time* travelling travelling by by choosing by car** train (as low as) train travel*** Ottawa Toronto Up to 20 450 km 4 h 23 min 4 h 34 min $467 $44 $423 Ottawa Montréal Up to 12 198 km 1 h 55 min 2 h 27 min $227 $33 $194 Ottawa Québec City Up to 8 482 km 5 h 23 min 4 h 39 min $488 $44 $444 Toronto Montréal Up to 13 541 km 5 h 25 min 5 h 30 min $562 $44 $518 Government of Canada employees enjoy a 10% discount on personal travel booked directly with VIA Rail. Government of Canada employees can take advantage of specially negotiated rates for business travel available through the Shared Travel Services HRG Portal. The discount does not apply to Prestige class or Escape fares. * 30 minutes was added to the total travel time by car in order to account for traffic and bad weather en route. ** The total cost to the taxpayer of travelling by car is calculated based on the following formula: $ cost of travelling by car (Treasury Board kilometric rate for Ontario of $0.55/km for car travel by a government official X total distance travelled) + $ employee-related cost (average hourly rate of $48/h for a government employee, based on a salary of $100,000 per year including employee benefits X travel time) = $ total cost to taxpayer. *** The value of travelling by train is calculated based on the following formula: $ cost of travelling by car – $ cost of travelling by train = $ taxpayer savings. Fares and conditions are subject to change without notice. TMTrademark owned by VIA Rail Canada Inc. 2100, rue Drummond Cossette Montréal (Québec) H3G 1X1 20/02/18_16:03 client : VIA Rail Canada nº 1111111152978 format pap : 100 % @ 300 dpi description : Magazine Nº VIA - trim — : 8,5” x 11” publication : POLICY MAGAZINE – EN ( Livraison 15 Février ) safety - - - : 7,5” x 10” (0,5 po) conseillère : Camille D. MARCH / APRIL bleed — : 8,75” x 11,25” (0,125”) infographiste : Eric L. visible : — nom fichier : 111152978_VIA_GovAd_Policy-PP-March-April-En.indd Check couleur : C M J N Les sorties laser ne reflètent pas fidèlement les couleurs telles qu’elles paraîtront List sur le produit fini. Cette épreuve est utilisée à des fins de mise en page seulement. CANADA’S RAILWAYS READY TO TAKE ON WINTER In 2018, we increased our capital investments to a record $5 billion, hired hundreds of new crew members, added high-horsepower and fuel-efficient locomotives, and strategically deployed equipment across our network, all so we can better manage the impacts of Canadian winter on rail operations. railcan.ca TM 8 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Trudeau, Trump and Trade: The New Deal elcome to our special issue U.S. ambassadors in Ottawa who also ereignty was not on the ballot, which on the new North Ameri- served for the State Department in allowed François Legault to make the W can trade deal, NAFTA 2.0, Mexico, asks whether the deal “truly case for change from the dominance or as Donald Trump has insisted on constitutes a win-win-win?” of the Quebec Liberals and the Parti styling it, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada The Munk School’s Drew Fagan looks Québécois. Legault’s Coalition Avenir Agreement (USMCA), easy to recog- at the bilateral relationship in a time Québec won 74 ridings in the 125- nize but difficult to pronounce. of tension and concludes Canada is seat legislature, a thumping major- ity, while the Liberals had their worst It has been more than three decades walking on the razor’s edge. From showing since Confederation and the since Canada and the U.S. negotiated Washington, the Canadian American PQ lost recognized party standing in the first FTA in 1987, and more than Business Council’s Scotty Greenwood the National Assembly. a quarter century since the NAFTA offers a retrospective of the Canadian- was negotiated to include Mexico in American relationship, a view from Dalhousie University’s Lori Turnbull 1991-92. inside the Beltway. looks at the New Brunswick election, which resulted in a minority govern- Derek Burney was present at the cre- Meredith Lilly, who was foreign ment leading to a hung parliament ation of both, first as chief of staff to policy and trade adviser to Stephen that convened on October 23. She Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in the Harper, shares her assessment of the looks at the constitutional and politi- Canada-U.S. round, then as Canadian new deal. And John Weekes, who was cal implications of the situation. ambassador to the United States dur- Canada’s chief negotiator of the first ing the NAFTA talks. NAFTA agreement, offers his perspec- Robin Sears looks at the confirmation tive on NAFTA 2.0. of Brett Kavanaugh as U.S. Supreme There is a huge difference between Court justice and compares the pro- then and now, in that Mulroney was And columnist Don Newman offers cess to Canada’s. dealing with rational political ac- his take on the deal and its political tors in Ronald Reagan and the first implications for Canada in 2019. Looking at the energy, environmen- George Bush, both of whom had a tal and economic implications of Ot- closer who could deliver for them— n our Canada and the World sec- tawa’s Bill C-69, Enbridge EVP Bob James A.