Q1 2021 Earnings Script

Q1 2021 Earnings Script

The New York Times Company First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call May 5, 2021 Harlan Toplitzky Thank you, and welcome to The New York Times Company’s first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. On the call today, we have: ● Meredith Kopit Levien, president and chief executive officer and ● Roland Caputo, executive vice president and chief financial officer Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make forward-looking statements during the course of this call. These statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may change over time. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties that are described in the Company’s 2020 10-K and subsequent SEC filings. In addition, our presentation will include non-GAAP financial measures, and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.nytco.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Meredith Kopit Levien. Meredith Kopit Levien Thanks, Harlan, and good morning. The Times finished the first quarter with more than 7.8 million paid subscriptions across our digital and print products, more than 100 million registered users, and an average weekly audience of 76 million readers. That foundation — plus our unmatched journalistic breadth and a market of at least 100 million people who are expected to pay for English-language journalism — grounds our conviction that we can substantially and profitably scale paid subscriptions over time. Our strong financial results in the first quarter demonstrate the success of our strategy and the promise of our large and growing digital subscription business. We recorded adjusted operating profit of 68 million dollars, an improvement of more than 50 percent compared to the first quarter of 2020. Digital subscription revenue increased 38 percent in the quarter, and we added 301,000 net new digital subscriptions across News, Cooking, Games and Audm. 1 Our first quarter results also reflect a real improvement in digital advertising. That improvement was driven by a brisk market, and our work last year on refining the competitiveness of our offering and the margin profile of our business. Digital advertising growth over Q1 in both 2020 and 2019 demonstrates the advantage of our subscription-first strategy to our advertising business. In our last earnings call, I noted that fluctuations in the news cycle can lead to considerable variability in net digital subscription additions from quarter to quarter. In February and March, our audiences declined from their historic highs last year, and we saw fewer net subscription additions in the latter part of the quarter. We expect moderated growth to continue through the second quarter, traditionally our softest of the year. With lower forecasted second quarter performance, we now expect annual total net subscription additions to be in the range of our 2019 performance, which, prior to 2020, was our best year for net additions. There is no doubt that the news cycles of the last five years, capped by last year’s tumultuous presidential election, racial reckoning, and the Covid-19 pandemic, created unprecedented demand for Times journalism and therefore accelerated subscription growth. At the same time, with each passing quarter we’ve improved many aspects of our underlying model. While we don't know which storylines will drive the next big news cycle, we do know that the size of our newsroom, its range of expertise, and our continued investment in meeting more needs position us to capture that demand, whatever its source. In the last few months, the breadth and reach of our journalism was on full display. While a group of data journalists in one part of our newsroom continued to update the world’s most comprehensive Covid case tracker, our Parenting team captured the ethos of what it feels like to be a mother right now with their breakout multimedia feature, The Primal Scream. Our metro reporters led the coverage of the multiple scandals rocking Albany, while our long-time beat reporter covering Premier League Football broke the news of the Super League that wasn’t. And our feature-length documentary, Framing Britney Spears, which aired on FX and Hulu, had a huge cultural impact. The world is getting no less complex, and the need for understanding will only grow. Outstanding journalism that helps people understand the world is central to our model, and will continue to be the primary draw for the majority of our audiences and paying customers. But it won’t be the only draw. Ten million people a week now come to The Times for needs beyond news — seeking recipes, puzzles and shopping advice. Taken individually, NYT Games and NYT Cooking are among the largest journalism-backed subscription services in America, and our plans for expanding our subscription portfolio through Wirecutter and Audm reflect our deeply-held belief that The Times can play an even bigger role in the lives of tens of millions more people. Combined with the differential value and demand advantages of our core news product, we believe these offerings should enable The Times to become a 2 larger and more profitable business as we scale. I’ll turn now to our underlying subscription drivers in the quarter, and some specifics about our work ahead. While total audience, registered readers on site, and subscriber engagement are somewhat lower this year than last, these metrics are all higher than 2019. We now have a significant base of people who read The Times every day -- a base that is substantially larger than before the pandemic. This is a result of our continued strength in news, the shift we made almost two years ago to a registration-based model, and the fact that we acquired so many new registered users in 2020. Many of those registered users are now interacting with us in new ways, which point to our opportunities for growth. For example, we saw a meaningful uptick in the range of storylines that drove user engagement in the first quarter, a positive development given the strong correlation we’ve described in the past between experiencing the breadth of our report and subscribing. Our live coverage, with which we’ve been experimenting aggressively since late 2019, now plays a significant role ensuring strength at the top of our funnel, as well as repeat engagement. Ten million readers came to The Times for coverage of Derek Chauvin's trial, with our live experience driving much of that readership. More than a third of our registered users and subscribers engage with this coverage on a weekly basis, with that number expected to increase thanks to a steady rollout of new innovations. The Times has always had a large number of regular newsletter readers, and our newsletter audience has grown significantly since we began asking users to register. Fifteen million people read a Times newsletter every week, including 5 million who start their day with our flagship newsletter, The Morning. More than 85 percent of our newsletter readers are not yet paying Times subscribers. So, newsletters represent a promising opportunity in our subscription funnel, both to encourage registered users to subscribe and as a source of subscription value. At nearly 1.7 million subscriptions and counting, Cooking and Games are succeeding as products in their own right, with a lot of runway ahead. What’s particularly encouraging is their ability to enhance The Times’s value in users’ daily lives. In the last few months, we’ve begun to experiment with how we sell our multi-product bundle in new ways. Early tests are promising, and we plan to introduce a more substantial overhaul to how we price and merchandise over time. We expect the bundle to benefit conversion, retention, and long-term monetization. I’ll turn now to advertising. In the first quarter, we recorded $59 million dollars of digital advertising revenue, a 16 percent increase over the first quarter of 2020 and, encouragingly, a 7 percent increase over the same period in 2019. This is the last quarter that we are comparing against revenues from the marketing services business we’ve now exited, and also 3 from the removal of open market programmatic advertising in our apps, so the actual improvement in digital advertising vs. last year is even stronger. Our growth in registered users has propelled the rapid expansion of our first-party data products, which are proving effective for marketers while affording our readers privacy from third-party trackers. Demand for these products is strong, driving 20 percent of our digital advertising revenue in the first quarter, compared with less than 10 percent in the same period last year. And, as of the first quarter, we have fully eliminated our reliance on third-party data targeting in direct-sold advertising. Audio advertising sales also continue to be strong, as total audio listeners grew 30 percent in the quarter vs. last year, driven by the addition of Serial and This American Life to our portfolio. Our productions beyond The Daily, including Sway with Kara Swisher, The Argument with Jane Kosten, and The Ezra Klein Show -- are also performing well with both listeners and advertisers. Print advertising was still relatively weak in the quarter, and while we expect some categories to recover in the latter half of the year, we do believe that some of the pandemic losses should be regarded as structural. Based on all of this, plus low comparables in the second quarter and the fact that our digital advertising business is now larger than print, we expect a material acceleration in our ad business in the second quarter.

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