Center for Security Studies STRATEGIC CSS ETH Zurich TRENDS 2010 STRATEGIC TRENDS offers a concise annual analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing succinct Key Developments in Global Affairs interpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, this publication will appeal to analysts, policy-makers, academics, the media, and the interested public alike. It is produced by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. Strategic Trends is available both as an e-publication (www. sta.ethz.ch) and as a paperback book. STRATEGIC TRENDS 2010 is the first issue of the Strategic Trends series. Published in February 2010, it contains a global overview as well as chapters on the financial crisis, US foreign policy, non-proliferation and disarmament, resource nationalism, and crisis management. These have been identified by the Center for Security Studies as the main strategic trends in 2010. The Center for Security Studies (www.css.ethz.ch) at ETH Zurich specialises in research, teaching, and the provision of electronic services in international and Swiss security policy. An academic institute with a major think-tank capacity, it has a wide network of partners. The CSS is part of the Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), which includes the political science chairs of ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich. 2010 CSS ETH Zurich STRATEGIC TRENDS ST-2010-Cover.indd 1 25.01.2010 13:28:07 STRATEGIC TRENDS 2010 is also available electronically on the Strategic Trends Analysis website at: www.sta.ethz.ch Editor STRATEGIC TRENDS 2010: Daniel Möckli Series Editors STRATEGIC TRENDS: Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer Contact: Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich Seilergraben 45–49 CH-8092 Zurich Switzerland This publication covers events up to 18 January 2010. © 2010, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich All images © by Reuters ISSN 1664-0667 ISBN 3-905696-26-6 ST-2010-Cover.indd 2 25.01.2010 13:28:07 Center for Security Studies STRATEGIC TRENDS 2010 Key Developments in Global Affairs Editor: Daniel Möckli Series Editors: Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer Contributors: Daniel Möckli, Matthew Hulbert, Prem Mahadevan, Aleksandra Dier CSS ETH Zurich Contents Acknowledgments ……………………………………………………………………………………............. 5 CHAPTER 1 Global overview 2010 ……………………………………………………………………………….............. 7 CHAPTER 2 Financial crisis: Geoeconomic twist, geopolitical stick ……………………….............. 27 CHAPTER 3 US foreign policy: New approaches and old problems in Afghanistan and the Middle East …………………………………………………………............. 47 CHAPTER 4 Non-proliferation: Bringing back disarmament ……………………………………........... 67 CHAPTER 5 Energy security: Oil price volatility and pervasive resource nationalism …………………………………………………………....…………………………………........... 85 CHAPTER 6 The crisis of crisis management ………………………....………………………………….......... 103 3 Acknowledgments Strategic Trends is a new annual publication by the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich. It offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing succinct interpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, Strategic Trends targets a broad audience, ranging from analysts to policy-makers, the media, academics, and the interested public. It is available as a paperback book as well as an e-publication. The new websiteStrategic Trends Analysis (www.sta.ethz.ch ) hosts both Strategic Trends and the complementary policy brief series CSS Analysis in Security Policy. It also features graphics, audio and video podcasts, and a discussion forum on current security issues. An electronic newsletter will be sent to inform subscribers about new publications. Many people have been involved in devising and launching Strategic Trends and the related website. We are particularly grateful to those CSS Senior Researchers who contributed to the substance of this first issue of Strategic Trends. Daniel Möckli took the lead drafting chapters 1 and 3, Matthew Hulbert chapters 2 and 5, Prem Mahadevan chapter 4, and Aleksandra Dier chapter 6. Andrin Hauri and Valentin Misteli were very helpful research assistants. Roland Popp has given valuable comments on some of the chapters. We also thank Marion Ronca for her work designing the book, layouting the text, and producing graphics. Christopher Findlay edited the final manuscript. Finally, our thanks go to those staff members of the International Relations and Security Network (ISN) who, under the leadership of Jan Störger, contributed to developing the Strategic Trends Analysis website. Zurich, 20 January 2010 Andreas Wenger Victor Mauer Daniel Möckli Director Deputy Director Editor Strategic Trends 5 CHAPTER 1 Global overview 2010 2009 was a year of crisis. This applies as much to finance as it does to energy, proliferation, and other pressing security challenges. Moving into 2010, there is a growing disconnect between the scale of global crises and the policy responses these have engendered. Novel ideas have either been lacking or, as in the case of US foreign policy, proven difficult to implement. With power gradually shifting from West to East, finding effective solutions to global governance questions has become ever more complex. US Army soldier during a patrol in Afghanistan, 21 December 2009, Reuters /Zohra Bensemra 7 STRATEGIC TRENDS 2 0 1 0 Two critical trends have stood attention from the ‘war of choice’ in out in shaping world affairs of Iraq to the ‘just war’ in Afghanistan. late. First, the financial crisis and With regard to nuclear proliferation, the international economic downturn Obama has come up with new ap- have affected countries and regional proaches too, focusing on a policy balances of power around the globe. of engagement with Iran and seek- While impacts vary widely, the most ing to strengthen non-proliferation important consequence of the finan- through a strong US commitment to cial crisis from a strategic perspective nuclear disarmament. Furthermore, may be its accelerating effect on the describing himself as ‘America’s first long-term power shift from West to Pacific president’, he has set out to East, and to China in particular. Al- complement the traditional, Western- though the issue of Islamist terrorism dominated network of US allies with and the US response to it has captured stronger relations with China and most attention in the first decade of other rising powers in the East, whilst the 21st century, the financial crisis has at the same time mending fences with brought to the fore a growing diffusion Russia. Well aware of the limits of of power that has long been underway US power in the emerging multipo- as a result of globalisation. This pro- lar world, he has made cooperative cess is bound to have a profound im- problem-solving the credo of his for- pact on the world. The need to adapt eign policy. However, while Obama the international system to accommo- has initiated many new processes and date China and other emerging econo- developments in his first year, his mies will become increasingly critical strategies have yet to yield substan- as they turn geoeconomic gains into tial results commensurate with US long-term geopolitical capital. interests. Second, US foreign policy has wit- Beyond these two key trends, and nessed a major redefinition under partly affected by them, there are Barack Obama, who took office in other major developments worth not- January 2009. Although Islamist ter- ing. Three of them concern global rorism and the two wars inherited governance challenges: Energy secu- from former President George Bush rity continues to gain importance on remain high on Obama’s security agen- the political agenda, with increasing da, he has abandoned the concept of a splits not only between producers ‘war on terror’, made efforts to reach and consumers, but also within these out to the Muslim world, and shifted respective camps. Climate change is 8 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 2010 increasingly recognised as a major glo- nantly associated with a deep sense of bal issue, yet no effective international crisis. But while there has been much regime for tackling it is in sight as rhetoric about the need for change, major powers disagree over priorities, a major finding of this book is that responsibilities, and concrete meas- governments have all too often come ures. A growing ‘crisis of crisis man- up with traditional policy responses. agement’ to address violent conflicts Novel ideas have either been lacking can also be identified. Dwindling po- or, as in the case of US foreign pol- litical will, institutional deficits, and icy, proven difficult to implement in operational capacity shortfalls are the ways that really change the status quo. main problems. In addition, a variety With global politics becoming more of specific regional developments can complex, and power increasingly dif- be made out across Europe, Africa, the fuse, finding convincing strategies to Middle East, Latin America, and Asia deal with crises into 2010 will be- that are likely to remain high on the come all the more challenging. strategic agenda in 2010. Two key trends This chapter provides a brief overview The financial crisis and the redefini- of all these developments. The fol- tion of US foreign policy can be iden- lowing chapters will then examine in tified as the two most salient recent more detail the five key strategic trends strategic trends. Since the financial