Copyright by Mansoor Alam Sheikh 2017 The Thesis Committee for Mansoor Alam Sheikh Certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: Jostling for Power and the end of Democracy in Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan; 1990 and 2010 Conflicts in Ferghana Valley APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: Thomas J. Garza Bella B. Jordan Jostling for Power and the end of Democracy in Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan; 1990 and 2010 Conflicts in Ferghana Valley by Mansoor Alam Sheikh, B.A. Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts The University of Texas at Austin May 2017 Dedication Dedicated to the innocent victims of senseless violence around the world. May they find peace soon. Acknowledgements I wish to thank Dr. Thomas J. Garza and Dr. Bella Jordan for always being there to help me in the process of writing this thesis. Their trust, encouragement, and dedication to their students made this work possible. I would like to acknowledge Ms. Agnes Sekowski for having her door open for me and other students to seek her help and advice in all aspects of our lives. I cannot say enough about the support my family has given me throughout my life. Especially my sister, Khadija, who has always been there to help me in times of distress and joy. v Abstract Jostling for Power and the end of Democracy in Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan; 1990 and 2010 Conflicts in Ferghana Valley Mansoor Alam Sheikh, M.A. The University of Texas at Austin, 2017 Supervisor: Thomas J. Garza This thesis is an analysis of two conflicts in the Ferghana region of Kyrgyzstan in 1990 and 2010 to understand and find how ethnic relations in post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan have progressed. In looking at the conflict, there are two main aspects: first, the motivations of each ethnic group at the time of mobilization and secondly, the hierarchy structure of the groups once they had mobilized and were in the middle of the conflict. The 1990 conflict shows a lack in mobilization in both Uzbek and Kyrgyz populations and violence is mostly smaller groups of one ethnicity attacking individuals of the other group. Comparatively, analysis of the 2010 conflict shows mass mobilization within the Uzbek populations and directed violence against all Kyrgyz. 2010 also heralds the organization of political forces on each side perpetuating violence either through propaganda or through the use of agents providing on field support during the violence. Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan, heading towards a democratic and self-sustaining nation after the fall of the Soviet Union, fell into the throws of conflict over its identity. Political corruption, demagogue leaders, and self-enriching politicians brought the promise of a vi bright future to its end. The rise of nationalism within both Kyrgyz and Uzbek populations over the twenty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union has led to far lethal and disruptive violence in this region. vii Table of Contents List of Tables ...........................................................................................................x List of Figures ........................................................................................................ xi List of Illustrations ................................................................................................ xii INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1 CENTRAL ASIA THROUGH TIME ...............................................................................3 DELIMINATION OF CENTRAL ASIA ..........................................................................6 FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION ..................................................................................13 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................20 Note on Primary Sources ..............................................................................23 ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................................27 1990 Osh-Uzgen Conflict ......................................................................................27 Theoretical analysis of the 1990 conflict ......................................................33 Motivation for Violence in the Uzbek Population, 1990 .....................33 Mobilization of the Uzbek Population, 1990 .......................................35 Motivation for Violence in the Kyrgyz Population, 1990 ...................35 Mobilization of the Kyrgyz Population, 1990 .....................................37 2010 Osh-Jalalabad Conflict ..................................................................................39 Theoretical analysis of the 2010 conflict ......................................................43 Motivation for Violence in Uzbek Population, 2010 ...........................44 Mobilization of the Uzbek Population, 2010 .......................................45 Motivation for Violence in the Kyrgyz Population, 2010 ...................46 Mobilization of the Kyrgyz Population, 2010 .....................................48 Rising Kyrgyz Nationalism, 1990-2010 ................................................................50 The Early Years, 1991-1994 .........................................................................50 The Middle Years, 1995-2005 ......................................................................52 viii The Bakiyev Years, 2005-2010 ....................................................................55 CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................56 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................59 ix List of Tables Table 1: Ethnic Composition of Kyrgyzstan in 1989......................................29 Table 2: Ethnic Composition of Osh Oblast in 1989. .....................................29 x List of Figures Figure 1: Political Map of Central Asia (2003). .................................................3 Figure 2: A detailed topographical map of Turkestan from 1905. .....................9 Figure 3: Russian language Soviet Newspaper “Pravda” front page from the third and fourth of June, 1990. No mention of violence in Kirghiz SSR can be found on these pages. ........................................................................24 Figure 4: Russian language Soviet Newspaper “Pravda” front page from the fifth and sixth of June, 1990. No mention of violence in Kirghiz SSR can be found on these pages, either. .............................................................26 Figure 5: Scene from the city of Osh in June 2010; the sign reads, “Kyrgyz Zone”. ...........................................................................................................41 Figure 6: Osh is burning in June 2010..............................................................42 xi List of Illustrations Illustration 1: Population distribution across Kyrgyzstan, from years 1980 till 1989. .....................................................................................................28 Illustration 2: “Kyrgyzstan – Here today, gone tomorrow?” reads a cartoon from Kyrgyz nationalist press, representing China, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan...................................................................................47 xii INTRODUCTION As far as ethnic conflicts go, the region of Ferghana in Central Asia falls far behind the likes of Rwanda or Yugoslavia. What gives importance to conflict in this region of the world is the various relationships, politics, and ideologies which have shaped to create the atmosphere of conflict in the Ferghana Valley over the last 150 years. The arrival of Russian imperialism, the sudden jolt of Soviet Communism, the final collapse of an empire, the rise of autocratic rule has all helped create different and varying identities for the people and their social and institutional way of life. The emphasis of this paper is to understand the various layers of identities this region and its people have had to bear on themselves, and observe how those layers have led to the breaking out of violence in this region. This paper pointedly observes the events of the summer of 1990 and 2010 to see how identity continues to shape how populations interact and collide with each other in this small section of Central Asia. By observing the actions, thoughts and experiences of the Kyrgyz and Uzbek populations in this border region, this paper tries to emphasize the changing nature of relationships between people whose identities have gone through varying degrees of oscillation over time. The questions I try to ask and answer here serve the purpose of adding more data to the already burgeoning datasets of ethnic conflict around the world. By examining the perceptions of the people before, during and after the conflicts of 1990 and 2010, I hope to find new and unique insights into how ethnic conflict start and end as the identities of the actors evolve over time. In order to truly understand the structure of identities which define the people of Ferghana Valley, one has to start as far back in time. This paper starts with an in-depth analysis of the varying forces coming and going through this region, changing the people, 1 the landscape and the way of life. The purpose here is to engulf the reader into thinking