Cracking Meritocracy from the Starting Gate Social Inequality in Skill Formation and School Choice Carlos J. Gil Hernández Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, 29 October 2020 European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences Cracking Meritocracy from the Starting Gate Social Inequality in Skill Formation and School Choice Carlos J. Gil Hernández Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Professor Fabrizio Bernardi, European University Institute (EUI Supervisor) Professor Juho Härkönen, European University Institute Professor Jonas Radl, Carlos III University / WZB Berlin Social Science Center Professor Leire Salazar, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) © Carlos J. Gil Hernández, 2020 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme I Carlos J. Gil Hernández certify that I am the author of the work “Cracking Meritocracy from the Starting Gate. Social Inequality in Skill Formation and School Choice” I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 85,083 words. Statement of inclusion of previous work: I confirm that Chapter IV was partially the result of a previous research fellowship funded by the European Consortium for Sociological Research Visitor Grant I undertook at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center. I confirm that Chapter II was jointly co-authored with Mr Marco Cozzani and Mr Fabrizio Bernardi and I contributed 60% of the work. I confirm that Chapter III draws upon an earlier article I published in the journal Sociology of Education: https://doi.org/10.1177/0038040719830698 Statement of language correction: This thesis has been corrected for linguistic and stylistic errors. I certify that I have checked and approved all language corrections, and that these have not affected the content of this work. Signature and date: 09/10/2020 Abstract In post-industrial societies, a college education is the main channel for upper classes to prevent their children falling down the social ladder, while, for working classes, it is the best bet for upward mobility. Despite attaining post-compulsory education was equalised and a driver of social mobility in the last decades, inequalities by socioeconomic status (SES) in college graduation, the main social lift, remained relatively unchanged. We are only starting to understand the complex interplay between biological and environmental factors explaining why educational inequalities gestate before birth and persist over generations. Besides, further research is needed to unravel why advantaged students are more likely to get ahead in education than equally-skilled, but disadvantaged peers. This thesis bridges interdisciplinary literature to study how parental SES affects educational attainment during childhood in Germany, evaluating the implications for social justice. It contributes to the literature by (1) analysing the consequences of prenatal health shocks on skill formation; (2) examining the effect of cognitive and non-cognitive skills on the transition to secondary education; and (3) assessing SES-heterogeneity in these associations. Drawing from compensatory theories, I demonstrate how negative traits for educational attainment—low birth weight and cognitive ability—are less detrimental for high-SES children from the early stages of the status-attainment process due to mechanisms like parental investments and aspirations, and teachers’ bias in assessments. The German educational system enforces early tracking into academic or vocational pathways from age 10, supposedly according to ability. Thus, the case of Germany represents an institutional starting gate to evaluate equal opportunity, where compensating for negative traits might be difficult. To test compensatory theories, I utilise the Twin Life Study and the National Educational Panel Study applying quasi-causal empirical designs. The findings challenge the liberal conception of merit as the sum of ability plus effort in evaluating equal opportunity. i ii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................... ix Chapter I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1. Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Normative Framework ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Equal Opportunity in Social Stratification Research ........................................................................................... 7 2.2. The Race on the Playing Field: Ascription or Achievement? ............................................................................ 9 2.3. Theories of Equal Opportunity: Liberal and Luck Egalitarianism ................................................................. 10 2.4. Towards an Evaluation of Equal Opportunity .................................................................................................... 12 3. Skills, Genes and Achievement ..................................................................................................... 15 4. Theories, Limitations and Contributions .................................................................................... 20 4.1. Skill Formation and Environmental Mechanisms .............................................................................................. 20 4.1.1. Parental Economic Resources ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 4.1.2. Parental Cultural Capital .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.1.3. Parental Cognitive Stimulation ............................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.4. Parental Educational Strategies .............................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.2. Families and Choice in Educational Transitions ................................................................................................. 27 4.2.1. Compensatory Advantage Theories ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.2.2. Teachers’ Bias: An Elephant in the Classroom? .................................................................................................................................. 30 4.3. Within-family Inequalities: Theoretical and Normative Implications .......................................................... 32 5. Educational Systems Design and Case Study .............................................................................. 33 5.1. Case Study: Germany as a Bottleneck and Starting Gate ................................................................................. 35 6. Methodological Setting and Challenges ...................................................................................... 36 6.1. Identification Strategies for Causal Inference ...................................................................................................... 36 6.2. Mediation Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................... 38 6.3. Nonlinearities ................................................................................................................................................................ 39 7. Thesis Overview ................................................................................................................................ 39 7.1. Chapter II. Birth Weight and Skill Formation: Biological Destiny