Midwest Urban Heat Wave Climatology: What Constitutes the Worst Events? A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science Alek J. Krautmann June 2012 © 2012 Alek J. Krautmann. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled Midwest Urban Heat Wave Climatology: What Constitutes the Worst Events? by ALEK J. KRAUTMANN has been approved for the Department of Geography and the College of Arts and Sciences by Ryan Fogt Assistant Professor of Geography Howard Dewald Interim Dean, College of Arts and Sciences 3 ABSTRACT KRAUTMANN, ALEK J., M.S., June 2012, Geography Midwest Urban Heat Wave Climatology: What Constitutes the Worst Events? Director of Thesis: Ryan L. Fogt The onset of heat waves can be subtle and do not result in structural damage like many other meteorological events. Components to consider that comprise a heat wave include: duration, daytime high and overnight low temperatures, other atmospheric conditions, human impacts, and location. Nonetheless, even with these deterministic factors, heat waves lack a meaningful uniform meteorological definition. This Thesis focuses on what constitutes summer heat waves in the Midwest by identifying the thresholds of high temperature that are representative of the most extreme events. Heat waves are classified based on surface observation records from Columbus, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and St. Louis. The large-scale weather features are examined for the most significant events. In addition, changes manifest in the number and duration of past heat waves are presented. The historical significance and characteristics of the most extreme heat waves on record are also discussed. Approved: _____________________________________________________________ Ryan L. Fogt Assistant Professor of Geography 4 In honor of my parents, Gary and Joanna, for their love and support. 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I extend my sincere thanks to Dr. Ryan L. Fogt for his mentorship and guidance as my graduate advisor, as well as for his partnership in Scalia Lab as my colleague. It is my pleasure to thank my other committee members, Dr. Timothy Anderson and Dr. Harold Perkins for their collaboration and as stewards of the Thesis process. Dr. Anderson, Dr. Fogt, and Dr. Perkins bring excellence to the Department of Geography through their work and I am grateful to have had their assistance. I would like to thank the Department of Geography for providing the opportunity to receive a graduate education and for assistantship during my tenure at Ohio University. Additionally, I am thankful for Scalia Lab as a place of work, research, teaching, learning, and activity. I also thank my mentors and colleagues at the University of Oklahoma and in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for they instilled in me the confidence as a young adult that has allowed me to reach this point. I am also grateful for the fantastic friends and peers across the county I have met along the way. I owe my deepest gratitude to my parents and family for providing me a steadfast foundation of love and the freedom to succeed. Finally, I thank my Grandfather Alex, who exemplified the principles of dedication, service, and responsibility that I will forever strive to match. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………3 Dedication…………………………………………………………………………………4 Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………………5 List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………...8 List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………..9 Chapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………………………………..12 Chapter 2: Literature Review…………………………………………………………….15 2.1 Defining Heat Waves……………………………………………………………...16 2.1.1 Background……………………………………………………………………16 2.1.2 Extreme Temperature Thresholds……………………………………………..17 2.1.3 Percentile Thresholds………………………………………………………….19 2.1.4 Temperature and Moisture Characterization………………………………….21 2.2 Heat Wave Impacts in the Midwest……………………………………………….23 2.3 Region of Interest: Urban Centers of the Midwest………………………………..26 2.4 Future Heat Waves………………………………………………………………...29 2.4.1 Background……………………………………………………………………29 2.4.2 Future Heat Wave Variability…………………………………………………29 2.4.3 Future Heat Wave Magnitude…………………………………………………31 2.5 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………..33 Chapter 3: Data and Methods……………………………………………………………35 3.1 Data Employed……………………………………………………………………35 3.1.1 Surface Stations……………………………………………………………….35 3.1.2 Station Temperatures………………………………………………………….38 3.1.3 Historical Records……………………………………………………………..39 3.1.4 Reanalysis Data………………………………………………………………..40 3.2 Methods Employed………………………………………………………………..42 7 3.2.1 Persistence and Percentile Threshold………………………………………….42 3.2.2 Event Statistics………………………………………………………………...44 Chapter 4: Results and Discussion……………………………………………………….46 4.1 Heat Wave Events…………………………………………………………………47 4.2 Heat Wave Frequency……………………………………………………………..53 4.3 Characterization of Major Events…………………………………………………57 4.3.1 July 1936………………………………………………………………………57 4.3.2 July 1934………………………………………………………………………66 4.3.3 July 1901………………………………………………………………………69 4.4.4 July 1999………………………………………………………………………73 4.4 1930s Heat Waves…………………………………………………………………77 4.5 Urban Mitigation and Response Techniques for Heat Waves…………………….83 4.6 Summary…………………………………………………………………………..85 Chapter 5: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………87 References………………………………………………………………………………..95 8 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 3.1: Metadata information for each station………………………………………..36 Table 3.2: Warm temperature records for each city……………………………………..39 Table 4.1: Heat wave event information for each city by threshold……………………..46 Table 4.2: Number and mean duration of heat wave events per decade…………………49 Table 4.3: Probability tests for the number of heat wave events by decade……………..52 9 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 2.1: July 19-31, 1999 hourly temperatures (°C) from (a) Chicago O’Hare Airport and (b) St. Louis Lambert International Airport. The solid line represents the average daily temperature and the dashed line represents the minimum temperature for each city. Peak temperatures marked with “H” are the heat wave days (Palecki et al. 2001)……………………………………..18 Figure 2.2: The percent of days below the 10th (dashed lines) or above the 90th (solid lines) percentiles. The daily maximum temperatures are in red and minimum in blue. The smoothed bold lines represent a lowess filter applied to the time series. (Peterson et al. (2008)………………………………..20 Figure 2.3: The change in number of heat waves between the 1950s and the 1980s. Arrows indicate increasing or decreasing change, triangles show stations without heat waves in either decade, and crossed arrows indicate results for close stations (Robinson 2001)……………………………………….21 Figure 2.4: The total number of 1995-like heat wave events observed from 1970- 1999 and projected to occur for time periods in the future under A1fi higher and B1 lower emission scenarios (Hayhoe et al. 2010b)…………………25 Figure 2.5: Chicago mean number of heat waves per year (a) and mean duration (b). The blue diamond is the value computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the black line represents present day model simulation range, and the red line represents the future (2080-2099) model simulation range (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004)…………………………………………………30 Figure 2.6: Projected increase in summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) average temperature (°C) as simulated by the SRES A1fi higher (a) and B1 lower (b) emissions scenarios by the average of 3 AOGCMs for midcentury. Temperature projections are relative to the 1961-1990 average (Hayhoe et al. 2010a)……………………………………………………………………………32 Figure 3.1: The June through September 1981-2010 average high (red) and low (orange) temperatures for each city…………………………………………40 Figure 3.2: Threshold heat wave example……………………………………………….41 Figure 4.1: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the 1981 to 2010 June to September surface mean air temperature in Celsius across the Midwest……………………47 Figure 4.2: Consecutive separation of observed high and low temperatures 10 between 1930s heat waves for Columbus (a); Indianapolis (b); Kansas City (c); and St. Louis (d)………………………………………………………..50 Figure 4.3: Heat wave frequency plotted on varying vertical scales for Columbus (a); Indianapolis (b); Kansas City (c); and St. Louis (d)………………………....54 Figure 4.4: Heat wave frequency plotted on varying vertical scales for Columbus (a); Indianapolis (b); Kansas City (c); and St. Louis (d)…………………………55 Figure 4.5: The longest 99% heat waves for Columbus (a); Indianapolis (b); Kansas City (c); and St. Louis (d)………………………………………………..58 Figure 4.6: NOAA 20th century reanalysis composite anomalies based on the 1981 – 2008 climatology from over the Midwest for 700mb specific humidity in kg/kg for 7- 15 July 1936 (a); and 12 July 1936 (b) .……….…………………...59 Figure 4.7: NOAA 20th century reanalysis composite anomalies based on the 1981 – 2008 climatology from over the Midwest for 850mb geopotential height in m for 7-15 July 1936 (a); and 10 July 1936 (b)………………………..……...61 Figure 4.8: NOAA 20th century reanalysis composite mean from over the Midwest for 850mb wind in m/s for 7-15 July 1936 (a); and 10 July 1936 (b)…................62 Figure 4.9: Front page from the July 9 1936 Columbus Evening Dispatch………………………………………………………………………….64 Figure 4.10: Cartoon editorial from the July 11 1936 Columbus Evening Dispatch………………………………………………………………………….65 Figure 4.11: NOAA 20th century reanalysis composite anomalies based on the 1981 – 2008 climatology from over the Midwest for 700mb specific humidity