Chapter 5 Cumulative Effects TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page 5. CUMULATIVE EFFECTS .................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Cumulative Analysis Methodology ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.2.1 Past, Present, and Reasonably Foreseeable Future Actions ................................ 5-3 5.3 Fish and Wildlife .......................................................................................................................... 5-12 5.4 Special Status Species – Greater Sage-Grouse .................................................................... 5-12 5.4.1 Methods ......................................................................................................................... 5-14 5.4.2 Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 5-17 5.4.3 Existing Conditions in WAFWA MZ II/VII and the Northwest Colorado Sub-region Planning Area ........................................................................ 5-18 GRSG Habitat and Populations ......................................................................... 5-18 Planning Area Habitat Conditions .................................................................... 5-19 Population Trends in Management Zone II/VII ............................................. 5-19 5.4.4 Regional Efforts to Manage Threats to GRSG ...................................................... 5-20 Other BLM and Forest Service Planning Efforts ........................................... 5-20 Colorado Statewide Efforts ............................................................................... 5-20 Idaho Statewide Efforts ....................................................................................... 5-21 Montana Statewide Efforts ................................................................................. 5-22 Utah Statewide Efforts ........................................................................................ 5-23 Wyoming Statewide Efforts ............................................................................... 5-24 Natural Resource Conservation Service Sage-Grouse Initiative .............. 5-26 Other Regional Efforts ........................................................................................ 5-26 5.4.5 Relevant Cumulative Actions .................................................................................... 5-28 5.4.6 Threats to GRSG in Management Zone II/VII ...................................................... 5-29 Energy Development and Mining ...................................................................... 5-29 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 5-42 Grazing/Free-Roaming Equids ........................................................................... 5-49 Spread of Weeds .................................................................................................. 5-54 Conversion to Agriculture/Urbanization ........................................................ 5-56 Fire ........................................................................................................................... 5-58 Recreation .............................................................................................................. 5-60 Conifers .................................................................................................................. 5-63 5.4.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 5-65 Alternative A: Current Management ............................................................... 5-66 Alternative B .......................................................................................................... 5-66 Alternative C ......................................................................................................... 5-67 Alternative D ......................................................................................................... 5-68 Proposed LUPA .................................................................................................... 5-68 Summary ................................................................................................................. 5-69 5.4.8 Reasonably Foreseeable Future Actions in MZ II/VII Likely to Impact GRSG Habitat ............................................................................................................... 5-70 5.5 Special Status Species (Other Species of Issue) ................................................................... 5-78 5.6 Lands and Realty ......................................................................................................................... 5-79 5.7 Vegetation (Forest, Rangelands, Riparian and Wetlands, and Noxious Weeds) ......... 5-80 5.8 Wildland Fire Ecology and Management ............................................................................... 5-80 5.9 Minerals – Leasable, Locatable, Salable, and Nonenergy Leasable .................................. 5-82 June 2015 Northwest Colorado Greater Sage-Grouse Proposed LUPA/Final EIS 5-i Table of Contents 5.10 Recreation and Travel Management ....................................................................................... 5-83 5.11 Range Management ..................................................................................................................... 5-85 5.12 Wild Horse Management .......................................................................................................... 5-86 5.13 Special Designations ................................................................................................................... 5-86 5.14 Soil and Water Resources ........................................................................................................ 5-87 5.15 Air Quality .................................................................................................................................... 5-89 5.16 Climate Change ........................................................................................................................... 5-91 5.17 Visual Resources ......................................................................................................................... 5-92 5.18 Lands with Wilderness Characteristics ................................................................................. 5-93 5.19 Soundscapes ................................................................................................................................. 5-94 5.20 Cultural Resources ..................................................................................................................... 5-95 5.21 Paleontological Resources ........................................................................................................ 5-96 5.22 Social and Economic Conditions (Including Environmental Justice) ............................... 5-97 5.23 References ................................................................................................................................. 5-103 5.23.1 Special Status Species – Greater Sage-Grouse .................................................. 5-103 5.23.2 All Other Sections .................................................................................................... 5-109 TABLES Page 5.1 Past, Present, and Reasonably Foreseeable Projects, Plans, or Actions that Comprise the Cumulative Impact Scenario ........................................................................................... 5-4 5.2 Estimated Number of Wells and Pads in ADH .................................................................................. 5-10 5.3 Management Jurisdiction in MZ II/VII by Acres of Priority and General Habitats ..................... 5-19 5.4 Acres Open* and Closed to Fluid Mineral Leasing in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ..................... 5-32 5.5 Acres with NSO and CSU/TL Stipulations in GRSG Habitat in MZ 1I/VII .................................. 5-33 5.6 Acres Open and Closed to Mineral Material Disposal in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII .............. 5-38 5.7 Acres Open and Recommended for Withdrawal from Mineral Entry in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII .................................................................................................................................................. 5-40 5.8 Acres Open and Closed to Nonenergy Leasable Mineral Leasing in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ....................................................................................................................................................... 5-41 5.9 Acres of Rights-of-Way/Special Use Authorization Management in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ....................................................................................................................................................... 5-44 5.10 Acres of Wind Energy Management Areas in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ................................... 5-47 5.11 Acres Available and Unavailable to Livestock Grazing in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ............... 5-52 5.12 Acres Identified for Retention and Disposal in GRSG Habitat in MZ II/VII ...............................