Economic Analysis for Local Planning Strategy City of Kwinana April 2019 15 Royal Street, East Perth Western Australia – 6004 phone: +61 (0) 412 167 294 email: [email protected] web: www.smco.com.au abn: 13 267 625 066 Version Control Document History and Status Status Issued To Qty Date Reviewed Approved Draft 1 City of Kwinana electronic 8 April 2019 PMcL JS Draft 2 City of Kwinana electronic 11April 2019 JS JS Report Details Author: Syme and McLeod Client: City of Kwinana Name of Document: Kwinana LPS Draft 1 5 Document Version: Draft 2 Project Number: P1819 Disclaimer Syme Marmion & Co reports and advice are either of a general nature, or for specific circumstances. Syme Marmion & Co is not liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person relying on such reports or advice, except where they are created by Syme Marmion & Co expressly for that person. Nothing in these terms shall be taken as excluding, limiting or modifying any term, condition or warranty implied by any applicable act of parliament that cannot be so affected. To the extent that such a term, condition or warranty is implied, the liability of Syme Marmion & Co for breach of that term, condition or warranty is, where permitted, limited at the option of Syme Marmion & Co, to the supplying of the relevant goods or services again; or the payment of the cost of having the relevant goods or services supplied again. 15 Royal Street, East Perth Western Australia – 6004 phone: +61 (0) 412 167 294 email: [email protected] web: www.smco.com.au abn: 13 267 625 066 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. i 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Policy Overview............................................................................................................................... 2 2.1. State Planning Strategy ............................................................................................................ 2 2.2. Perth and Peel @ 3.5 million (WAPC 2018) .............................................................................. 2 2.3. South Metropolitan Peel Sub-Regional Planning Framework (WAPC 2018) .............................. 3 2.4. State Planning Policy 4.2 – Activity Centres for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2). ................................. 3 2.5. City of Kwinana Local Commercial Activity Centres Strategy 2014 ............................................ 4 3. Key demographic drivers: ................................................................................................................ 6 3.1 Population .................................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.1 Historic Growth ............................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Projected Growth – The City ............................................................................................ 7 3.1.3 Location of Population Growth ........................................................................................ 8 3.1.4 Regional Context.............................................................................................................. 9 3.1.5 Age Profile ..................................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics ................................................................................................. 13 4. Employment ................................................................................................................................. 15 4.1. Employment .............................................................................................................................. 15 4.1.1. Employment by Industry .................................................................................................... 15 4.1.2. Unemployment.................................................................................................................. 18 4.1.3. Employment Growth ......................................................................................................... 19 4.2 Employment Locations .............................................................................................................. 20 3.3. Industry Base ............................................................................................................................ 22 4.4 Employment and Age Groups .................................................................................................... 25 Fig 4.10: Employment by Industry for Age Groups ................................................................................. 26 5. Major Employment Centres .......................................................................................................... 27 5.1. Western Trade Coast ................................................................................................................. 27 Syme Marmion & Co: Economic Analysis for Local Planning Strategy i 5.1.1. Historic Growth ................................................................................................................. 27 5.1.2. Strategic Position ............................................................................................................... 32 5.1.3 Drivers and Prospects ........................................................................................................ 35 ❖ Drivers ................................................................................................................................... 35 ❖ Prospects - Westport ............................................................................................................. 36 5.2 Light and General Industrial Land .............................................................................................. 40 5.3 Kwinana City Centre .................................................................................................................. 41 5.4 Other Activity Centres ............................................................................................................... 44 6. City Growth – Influencing Factors .................................................................................................. 45 6.1. The Economy ............................................................................................................................ 45 6.2 The Changing Nature of Work ................................................................................................... 46 6.3 The Changing Nature of Retail ................................................................................................... 47 7. Key Considerations........................................................................................................................ 49 7.1 Industrial Land .......................................................................................................................... 49 7.1.1 Supply ............................................................................................................................... 49 7.1.2 Demand ............................................................................................................................. 49 7.2 Health Services .......................................................................................................................... 49 7.3 Movement Economy ................................................................................................................. 50 7.4 Office / Business uses in Industrial Land .................................................................................... 50 8. Land Use and Strategic Implications .............................................................................................. 51 Syme Marmion & Co: Economic Analysis for Local Planning Strategy ii Executive Summary Population In common with all of the municipalities in the Perth South Metropolitan and Peel regions, Kwinana is experiencing substantial population growth. The population of the City of Kwinana is in the middle of a strong growth phase. It grew from 23,986 in 2006 to 30,697 in 2011 and to 40,058 in 2016. The City’s population is projected to more than double to 85,158 by 2036. This has several direct implications: • An increased resident workforce, with the consequent demand for increased employment opportunities; • Increased demand for activity centre floorspace (retail, commercial, services) – this will primarily affect existing activity centres in the City. The City is bounded to the north and south by the much larger Cities of Cockburn and Rockingham respectively. This constitutes its immediate local region. Together they contain the main local and regional employment centres: The Western Trade Coast (the Kwinana / Rockingham Industrial Complex and Henderson), the Rockingham Strategic Metropolitan Centre and Stirling base. The region is growing quickly: between 2016 and 2036 the population of the three cities combined will almost double to 436,000. Kwinana is somewhat smaller in population than the other two, constituting around 20% of the total by 2036. To the south the Peel region is also growing strongly and its population will almost double to 248,000 by 2036. Population growth