CLIMATE-SENSITIVE HAZARDS IN FLORIDA Identifying and Prioritizing Threats to Build Resilience against Climate Effects Christopher T. Emrich, Daniel P. Morath, Gregg C. Bowser, and Rachel Reeves, Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute This report was produced under contract for the Florida Department of Health. This project was supported by an award from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (grant number U5UE1EH001047-02, Building Community Resilience in Florida through Adaptation and Mitigation). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Page ii of xi TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. vi 1. Project Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 Hurricane Storm Surge, Winds, and Rising Sea Level ............................................................ 8 Heat, Drought, and Wildfires ..................................................................................................10 Priority Climate-Sensitive Threats ..........................................................................................11 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................13 2. Social Vulnerability .............................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 2 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 5 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................15 3. Medical Vulnerability ........................................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 3 Results and Findings .............................................................................................................. 4 Health Care Access ............................................................................................................ 8 Health Care System Capability ........................................................................................... 8 Medical Need ...................................................................................................................... 9 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................11 4. Vulnerability to Hurricane Winds ........................................................................................ 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 Analyzing Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazards in Combination with SoVI and MedVI ................... 8 About Bivariate Classifications ............................................................................................ 8 Integrating Hurricane Wind Hazard Risk with SoVI and MedVI ........................................... 9 5. Vulnerability to Storm Surge ............................................................................................... 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 2 Analyzing Hurricane Storm Surge in Combination with SoVI and MedVI ...............................17 About Bivariate Classifications ...........................................................................................17 Page iii of xi Integrating Category 1 Storm Surge Risk with SoVI and MedVI .........................................18 Integrating Category 2 Storm Surge Risk with SoVI and MedVI .........................................21 Integrating Category 3 Storm Surge Risk with SoVI and MedVI .........................................24 Integrating Category 4 Storm Surge Risk with SoVI and MedVI .........................................28 Integrating Category 5 Storm Surge Risk with SoVI and MedVI .........................................32 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................37 6. Vulnerability to Flash Flooding caused by Extreme Precipitation.................................... 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 The Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) .................................................................................. 1 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 5 Analyzing Flash Flooding Hazard in Combination with SoVI and MedVI ................................. 8 About Bivariate Classifications ............................................................................................ 8 Integrating Flash Flood Hazard Risk with SoVI and MedVI ................................................. 9 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................13 7. Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................... 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 Caveats .............................................................................................................................. 2 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 3 Analyzing Sea Level Rise in Combination with SoVI and MedVI............................................11 About Bivariate Classifications ...........................................................................................11 Integrating Low Projected Sea Level Rise with SoVI and MedVI ........................................12 Integrating Moderate Projected Sea Level Rise with SoVI and MedVI ...............................15 Integrating High Projected Sea Level Rise with SoVI and MedVI .......................................18 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................22 8. Vulnerability to Extreme Heat.............................................................................................. 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 Downscaling Global Climate Data ....................................................................................... 1 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 7 Analyzing Heat Hazard in Combination with SoVI and MedVI ...............................................16 About Bivariate Classifications ...........................................................................................16 Integrating B1 Scenario Extreme Heat with SoVI and MedVI .............................................16 Integrating A1B Scenario Extreme Heat with SoVI and MedVI ...........................................20 Integrating A1FI Scenario Extreme Heat with SoVI and MedVI ..........................................24 Page iv of xi Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................29 9. Vulnerability to Drought ...................................................................................................... 1 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 1 State Summary ....................................................................................................................... 3 Analyzing Drought Hazard in Combination with SoVI and MedVI ..........................................13 About Bivariate Classifications ...........................................................................................13 Integrating B1 (Low) Scenario Drought with SoVI and MedVI ............................................13 Integrating A1B (Mid) Scenario Drought with SoVI and MedVI ...........................................17 Integrating A1FI