Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Japan Indo-Pacific: the in Competition U.S.-China Regional Responses to Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific Japan Scott W. Harold Harold C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4412z4 For more information on this series, visit www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0519-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: globe: jcrosemann/GettyImages; flags: luzitanija/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy summary describe a world characterized by a return to great-power competition, most notably with China in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. allies and partners will play a crucial role in ensuring outcomes to that competition that favor freedom, democracy, and a security order in which the interests and values represented by the rules-based international order remain strong. America’s enduring alliance with Japan not only is the cornerstone of U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific region, but also magnifies and bolsters U.S. influence across that vast swath of territory. Within the region, Southeast Asian countries have been particularly exposed to China’s expanding influence and coercive diplomacy in recent years, making the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations a key focus for U.S. national strategy and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in particular. This study focuses on how best to leverage the U.S.-Japan alliance to engage in a long-term strategic competition with China in the Southeast Asia region, at least out to 2030. This report on the U.S.–Japan alliance and Southeast Asia is part of a broader project that aims to understand the perspectives of U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific as they formulate and implement their responses to China’s more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the region and a more competitive U.S.-China relationship. The research also assesses how DoD, particularly the U.S. Air Force, can best deepen and improve its ability to work with Japan to ensure that Southeast Asian nations have options other than simply bandwagoning with or submitting to Chinese dominance. The other reports in this series are available at www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence. The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project titled “Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo- Pacific” that assists the Air Force in evaluating U.S. and Chinese influence and assessing possible Air Force, joint force, and U.S. government options. Research was completed in September 2019. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine, Force iii Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the Department of the Air Force on September 26, 2019. The draft report, issued on March 20, 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xii 1. The U.S.-Japan Alliance, Southeast Asia, and China’s Rise ...................................................... 1 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................... 4 2. Political, Economic, and Public Opinion Dimensions of Japan’s China Policy ......................... 5 Japan’s Political Landscape Shapes the Country’s Ability to Engage on National Security ................... 5 Public Opinion Toward China Remains Extremely Negative .................................................................. 9 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 13 3. Japan’s Evolving Security Policy and Response to Growing Chinese Capabilities and Assertiveness ........................................................................................................................... 14 Japan’s Post–Cold War Defense Policy Evolving Toward Greater Flexibility, Capability ................... 14 China Is a Key Factor Driving the Evolution of Japanese Defense Policy ............................................ 18 Japan Has Few Formal Defense Relations with China ........................................................................... 22 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 24 4. Japanese Defense Relations with Southeast Asia ..................................................................... 25 U.S. and Japanese Priority Relationships with Southeast Asia Overlap Substantially .......................... 26 Japan’s Security Cooperation with Southeast Asia Militaries Has Grown Rapidly over the Past Decade .............................................................................................................................................. 28 Japanese Experts’ Views of U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation to Compete with China in Southeast Asia .................................................................................................................................................. 35 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 39 5. Outlook and Policy Recommendations ..................................................................................... 41 Outlook for Regional Position and Partnerships Appears to Be Very Strong ........................................ 41 Options for the United States, Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force .......................................... 43 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 48 References ..................................................................................................................................... 49 v Figures Figure S.1. Strong Support for Expanding Japan-ASEAN Security Cooperation ......................... ix Figure 2.1. Abe Shinzō Cabinet Approval Rate, 2013–2019 ......................................................... 8 Figure 2.2. Japan-China Public Opinion Toward Other Country ................................................. 10 Figure 2.3. Tourist Arrivals to Japan by Country of Origin, 2018 ............................................... 12 Figure 3.1. Japanese Scrambles Against Chinese Aircraft ........................................................... 19 Figure 3.2. Chinese Vessels in Waters Surrounding the Senkaku