HEART OF LONDON JULY AREA PERFORMANCE HEART OF LONDON AREA PERFORMANCE CONTENTS JULY 2020 EDITION INTRODUCTION 02 Welcome to our area performance report. This monthly summary provides trends in footfall, spending SUMMARY ANALYSIS 03 and much more, in the Heart of London area. Focusing on Leicester Square, Piccadilly Circus, Haymarket, Piccadilly and FOOTFALL TRENDS 04 St James’s, find out exactly how our area has performed FOOTFALL OVERVIEW 05 throughout the month. HOURLY FOOTFALL 06 The report is available exclusively to members, and explores REGIONAL FOOTFALL 07 changes in trends that impact the performance of our area, allowing your business to plan with confidence and make the COVID-19 AND FOOTFALL 08 most of being in the heart of London. YOUR FEEDBACK IS IMPORTANT TO US PROPERTY & INVESTMENT 09 PLEASE CLICK ON THE BUTTON INVESTMENT 10 TO REQUEST NEW DATA OR ANALYSIS PROPERTY PERFORMANCE 11 LEASE AVAILABILITY 12 EVENTS & ACTIVITY 13 IMPACT CALENDAR 14 GLOSSARY 15 See our Glossary for more detail on data sources and definitions. 2 HEART OF LONDON AREA PERFORMANCE SUMMARY ANALYSIS – JULY 2020 Rainfall (mm) 2020 2019 500K 25 YEAR ON YEAR FOOTFALL 450K -72% Footfall in the current month compared to the same month last year 400K 20 350K 300K 15 MONTH ON MONTH FOOTFALL 250K +97% Footfall in the current month compared Footfall 200K 10 to the previous month Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 150K 100K 5 YEAR TO DATE FOOTFALL 50K -58% Footfall in the current year to date K 0 compared to the same period last year M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 Week 29 Week 30 Week 31 July trend summary • Like-for-like footfall in the Heart of London area was down 72% in July 2020 compared to the same month last year. • Over 3.2 million visitors came to the area in July, a like-for-like increase of 97% compared to June. • Footfall in July has grown at the fastest clip since the beginning of lockdown, with the pace of monthly growth accelerating compared to May (+60%) and June (+61%). • Year-to-date, footfall in the Heart of London area is still down 58% compared to the same period in 2019. • The main cause of the shortfall is the slow pace of reopening of offices in the area, as well as the lack of international tourists due to the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions. • Saturday, 1st August, which also fell in the July reporting period, was the busiest day of the month with 176K visits to the Heart of London area. • Wednesday, 8th July, was the quietest day of the month with just under 77K visits. 3 FOOTFALL TRENDS HEART OF LONDON JULY FOOTFALL OVERVIEW Heart of London Business Alliance has 9 footfall counter locations across our footprint (highlighted below). This map depicts the “Year on Year” trend (YoY) and “Year To Date” trend (YTD) for each of the locations. 5 counters are in Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus and 4 in Piccadilly & St James’s Cranbourn St. 2020 2019 2018 16M 14M YTD: -60% 12M New Coventry St. 10M YoY: -76% 8M YTD: -57% 6M 4M YoY: -68% 2M Shaftesbury Ave K Coventry Street Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD: -54% YTD: -64% Fig1. Three year comparative footfall totals for Heart of London area. YoY: -70% YoY: -78% Piccadilly North Irving Street YTD: -62% YTD: -52% YoY: -76% YoY: -67% Piccadilly South YTD: -58% Regent St. St James’s YoY: -72% YTD: -45% YoY: -67% Jermyn Street YTD: -57% YoY: -71% 5 PICCADILLY & ST. JAMES’S JULY HOURLY PROFILE HOURLY FOOTFALL 40K 35K Distribution & Analysis 30K 25K 20K 15K 10K Piccadilly & St James’s footfall profile ourly footfall volume 5K K • Average hourly footfall fell by 72% year on year in the Total h 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Piccadilly & St James’s area in July. This was an improvement Weekday Weekend from -80% in June. Source: Heart of London footfall counters, Piccadilly & St James’s only. • The weekends fared a little bit better than the average (Saturday: -69%) while weekdays were slightly behind (-73%). • The most significant improvement, +167% month on month, was on Friday evenings (8:00 PM to midnight), as the night- LEICESTER SQUARE & PICCADILLY CIRCUS JULY HOURLY PROFILE time economy has returned to the area. 200K • Average hourly footfall on the weekends was 63% lower than on weekdays in the Piccadilly & St James’s area. 150K 100K Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus footfall profile 50K • In the Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus area, average ourly footfall volume hourly footfall also fell by 72% year on year (compared to K -85% in June). Total h 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 • Biggest increase month on month was also on Friday nights, Weekday Weekend +260% between the hours of 8:00 PM and 4:00 AM. Source: Heart of London counters, Leicester Square and Piccadilly Circus only. • Average hourly footfall on the weekends was 47% lower than on weekdays in the Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus area. 6 HEART OF LONDON AREA: YEAR ON YEAR FOOTFALL COMPARISONS Week Week Week Week Week July footfall grew by 96.8% month on month, accelerating the 27 28 29 30 31 positive post-lockdown momentum from +60.9% in June. This Heart of -82% -76% -72% -71% -68% was a third consecutive month of monthly footfall growth after London a sharp decline in April. UK High -58% -51% -48% -45% -44% Street Nationally, high street footfall trends also grew, albeit by a West End -75% -70% -67% -63% -63% more modest 56% in July. That said, high street footfall in the UK has already recovered to -47% year on year, while in the NB: Reporting set includes all Heart of London counting locations (9) Week number Heart of London area, footfall was still down 72% in July. Other UK destinations also continued outperforming. Footfall LEICESTER SQUARE & PICCADILLY CIRCUS: YEAR ON YEAR in Retail Parks was down just 20% year on year in July, while Shopping Centres were down 42%. Week Week Week Week Week 27 28 29 30 31 WEEKLY TRENDS LSQ -82% -76% -72% -71% -68% Weekly footfall trends were once again positive in the July UK High • -58% -51% -48% -45% -44% Street reporting period, which covered weeks 28-31. West End -75% -70% -67% -63% -63% • In week on week terms, the beginning of the month saw the NB: Includes only Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus locations (5) strongest growth (week 28: +30%), which coincided with the Week number reopening of pubs, restaurants and some other leisure venues in the Heart of London area. PICCADILLY & ST JAMES’S: YEAR ON YEAR • The remainder of the month also saw positive trends, although week 30 had a minor slowdown to just 4% weekly growth. Week Week Week Week Week 27 28 29 30 31 • Year to date, footfall in the Heart of London areas was down PIC & ST J -79% -74% -72% -70% -68% 58% compared to the same period a year ago. UK High -58% -51% -48% -45% -44% Street • Footfall performance was broadly similar in both Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus area (July: -72% YoY, YTD: -58%) West End -75% -70% -67% -63% -63% and in Piccadilly & St James’s (July: -71% YoY, YTD: -55%). NB: Reporting set includes only Piccadilly & St. James’s locations (4) Week number 7 HEART OF LONDON AREA FOOTFALL AND UK COVID-19 CASES COVID-19 AND FOOTFALL 3.0M 350K 2.5M 300K 250K The impact of the lockdown on visitor trends 2.0M 200K 1.5M 150K 1.0M 100K 19 UK UK 19 Cases 500K 50K - • COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on Footfall 2020 K K footfall within the Heart of London area. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 COVID February March April May June July • As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK 2020 Footfall Confirmed UK COVID-19 cases grew from 94 at the end of February to 60,000 at the end of March, confidence in visiting public areas has declined. Sources: All 9x Heart of London footfall counters, Johns Hopkins University CSSE. • Even before the start of the national lockdown on 23rd March and the worldwide cessation of international travel, footfall has already started falling rapidly. WEEKLY CHANGE IN FOOTFALL AND UK COVID-19 CASES • Weekly footfall started falling in mid-February, declining 60% 537% 600% 30% from 2.6 million (week 8) to 2.2 million (week 10). 40% 12% 500% 20% 400% • The biggest weekly declines occurred in weeks 11 (-64% 0% 10% week on week) and 12 (-75% week on week), ahead of -20% 4% 300% -40% the lockdown announcement on 23rd March.