YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer Survey Results Sample Size: 1031 Welsh adults Fieldwork: 30th October - 2nd November 2018 VI : Westminster VI : Constituency VI : List Past Vote 2017 EU Ref 2016 Total Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Remain Leave Weighted Sample 1031 231 302 74 198 277 139 190 276 127 274 399 85 402 443 Unweighted Sample 1031 245 317 72 205 291 136 196 285 127 291 413 88 458 429 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WESTMINSTER HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Westminster Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Con 33 100 0 0 98 3 11 100 3 11 90 3 11 20 48 Lab 42 0 100 0 2 93 26 0 92 22 1 84 7 55 28 Lib Dem 7 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 2 4 1 5 2 11 2 Plaid 10 0 0 100 0 1 57 0 1 61 2 4 76 10 11 Other 7 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 2 7 4 4 4 12 Westminster Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Green 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 3 2 1 UKIP 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 1 1 0 9 BNP 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Women's Equality Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 ASSEMBLY HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Assembly Constituency Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Con 28 85 1 1 100 0 0 95 2 3 77 3 3 16 38 Lab 38 3 85 4 0 100 0 2 89 10 4 72 4 47 27 Lib 6 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 7 1 10 4 UKIP 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 10 2 2 1 12 Plaid 19 6 11 92 0 0 100 2 5 83 7 14 88 23 16 Other 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 2 3 3 Assembly Constituency Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Green 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 1 BNP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Socialist Labour 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Welsh Christian Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Communist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 © 2018 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.com YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer Survey Results Sample Size: 1031 Welsh adults Fieldwork: 30th October - 2nd November 2018 Gender Age Social Grade Region Mid and Cardiff and South South Total Male Female 18-24 25-49 50-64 65+ ABC1 C2DE North West South Central East West Weighted Sample 1031 500 531 120 395 254 263 516 515 197 213 230 213 177 Unweighted Sample 1031 451 580 92 373 272 294 528 503 222 221 185 207 196 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WESTMINSTER HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Westminster Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Con 33 36 31 16 22 35 50 34 32 42 37 29 27 32 Lab 42 37 48 50 56 40 27 39 46 29 43 44 53 42 Lib Dem 7 8 6 18 6 7 4 9 4 7 4 10 7 6 Plaid 10 10 11 8 8 12 12 11 9 14 11 14 6 6 Other 7 10 5 7 8 6 8 6 8 9 5 4 8 13 Westminster Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Green 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 3 5 UKIP 4 6 2 5 4 4 5 3 5 6 3 2 4 7 BNP 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Women's Equality Party 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Other 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ASSEMBLY HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Assembly Constituency Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Con 28 30 25 16 20 27 41 29 26 35 32 24 22 26 Lab 38 32 43 47 49 32 27 35 40 25 36 37 51 39 Lib 6 7 5 12 7 6 4 8 4 11 2 8 6 5 UKIP 6 8 4 6 5 7 7 6 7 8 4 4 7 8 Plaid 19 19 20 19 16 26 18 20 18 20 24 23 12 16 Other 3 3 3 0 3 3 4 2 4 1 3 3 2 6 Assembly Constituency Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Green 1 2 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 4 BNP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Socialist Labour 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Welsh Christian Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 Communist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 Other 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 © 2018 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.com Sample Size: 1031 Welsh adults Fieldwork: 30th October - 2nd November 2018 VI : Westminster VI : Constituency VI : List Past Vote 2017 EU Ref 2016 Total Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Con Lab Plaid Remain Leave Weighted Sample 1031 231 302 74 198 277 139 190 276 127 274 399 85 402 443 Unweighted Sample 1031 245 317 72 205 291 136 196 285 127 291 413 88 458 429 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Assembly List Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote or don't know] Con 26 80 0 0 90 1 2 100 0 0 73 1 4 16 36 Lab 37 3 84 3 2 88 10 0 100 0 3 73 4 45 28 Lib 6 1 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 5 2 10 2 Plaid 18 6 8 94 2 5 79 0 0 100 7 13 82 20 16 Green 4 0 5 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 5 4 6 1 UKIP 5 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 2 0 11 BNP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Socialist Labour 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Welsh Christian Party 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 Communist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 3 5 1 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 6 1 2 2 5 Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative 22 100 0 0 90 3 8 90 2 9 70 2 9 15 34 Labour 29 0 100 0 1 86 20 0 85 17 1 66 6 42 21 Liberal Democrat 5 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 3 4 1 4 2 8 1 Plaid Cymru 7 0 0 100 0 1 47 0 1 51 1 3 60 8 8 Some other party 6 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 2 6 3 3 4 11 Would not vote 9 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 3 2 3 2 5 Don’t know 19 0 0 0 8 4 18 8 4 17 15 18 17 20 20 Refused 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 And which of these parties would you vote for? [This question was only asked to those who selected 'some other party'; n=59] Green 22 0 0 0 100 37 27 0 32 0 4 43 79 52 11 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 57 0 0 0 0 0 30 100 21 75 66 34 21 22 69 British National Party (BNP) 3 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 5 Women's Equality Party 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 4 Some other party 13 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 25 25 10 0 26 9 Don't know 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 Refused 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 © 2018 YouGov plc.