AIR QUALITY LIFE INDEX™ UPDATE · MARCH 2018 Is China Winning its War on Pollution? By Michael Greenstone and Patrick Schwarz SUMMARY Four years after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang declared a “war against pollution,” has the government delivered on its promises to improve air quality? Using daily data from more than 200 monitors across the country from 2013 to 2017, we find that China’s most populated areas have experienced remarkable improvements in air quality, ranging from 21 to 42 percent, with most meeting or exceeding the goals outlined in their National Air Quality Action Plan. If these reductions in pollution are sustained, the average Chinese citizen would see their life expectancy increase by 2.4 years relative to 2013. Although China faces a long road ahead to reach national and international air quality standards, these results suggest the country is winning its war on pollution. INTRODUCTION A New Age of Environmental Protection? At the beginning of 2014, amid one of the worst stretches of air pollution in modern Chinese history, Premier Li Keqiang declared a “war against pollution” at the opening of China’s annual meeting of the National People’s Congress. The timing of the declaration—at the kickoff of a nationally televised conference typically reserved for discussing key economic targets—marked an important shift in the country’s long-standing policy of prioritizing economic growth over con- cerns about environmental protection. It also marked an important change in the government’s official rhetoric about the country’s air quality. In the past, state media had deflected concerns about air quality by claiming poor visibility was due to “fog” and that emissions had no effect on levels of smog. Now, the government stressed environmental responsibility, stating the country could not “pollute now and clean up later” and would fight pollution with “an iron fist.” Leading up to the declaration, China had been experiencing some of its highest concentrations of fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) on record with little reason to believe conditions would ever improve. In the country’s capital city of Beijing, for example, average PM2.5 concentrations in 2013 were 91 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3), or nine times the amount the World Health Organization (WHO) considers safe and well above the county’s own class-two national standard of 35 μg/m3 (see Figure 1). In January of 2014, pollution reached 30 to 45 times recommended daily levels, and city officials warned residents to stay indoors. Similarly, in Shanghai, concentra- tions were 63 μg/m3, or 6 times the WHO standard of 10 μg/m3. In the 204 prefectures where we estimated PM2.5 in 2013, which represents nearly 70 percent of the total population, PM2.5 concentrations averaged 73 μg/m3, which if sustained corresponds to a 6.5-year decline in life expectancy for the average resident.1 1 The 6.5-year decline in life expectancy is based on a pair of studies coa-authored by Michael Greenstone that provides credible estimates of the impact of air pollution on life expectancy. For more information, see Figure 4 and the AQLI webpage, available at aqli.epic.uchicago.edu. 2 | Air Quality Life Index™ Update: Is China Winning its War on Pollution? EPIC With these record levels of air pollution came Figure 1 · PM Concentrations Across China in 2013 ( g/m3) increased public scrutiny, which had been 2.5 μ gradually rising for nearly a decade. In 2007, 150 WHO Standard China Standard Ma Jun, director of China’s path breaking environmental NGO, the Institute of Public 100 & Environmental Affairs, released the China Air Pollution Map, a tool that allowed users 50 to view air quality data from around the country. Beginning in 2008, the U.S. embassy in Beijing began publicly posting readings 0 from its own air quality monitor on Twitter Tianjin Beijing Suzhou Haerbin Baoding All China Chengdu Shanghai Chongqing Guangzhou and the State Department website, which Region BTH PRD Region YRD Region Shijiazhuang residents quickly pointed out conflicted Notes and Sources: Data are from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center. “All China” refers to the 204 prefectures for which our balanced sample of monitors has available with the level of air quality reported by the data. “BTH” refers to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; “PRD” refers to the Pearl River Delta; “YRD” refers to the Yangtze River Delta. The cities shown in this figure are the ten most populated prefectures in city government. By 2012, the U.S. embassy our sample. in Guangzhou and Shanghai also had set up their own pollution monitors and began reporting data. Then, in the summer of 2013, EPIC Director Michael Greenstone and three co-authors published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that found high air pollution had cut the lifespans of people living in northern China short by about five years compared to those living in the south. The study was covered by nearly every major international news outlet, several outlets in China, and went ‘viral’ on social media and through popular Chinese blogs. The clear demonstration of the health impacts further galvanized public scrutiny and drew the attention of the environment ministry. Soon after, reports began to circulate of foreigners leaving the country due to health concerns. By 2014, news reports from Beijing (which was singled out by 3 the National Action Plan to reduce its concentrations of PM2.5 to below 60 μg/m ) described daily conversations about air quality as a “national pastime amongst ex-pats and Chinese locals alike,” with blogs and parenting forums being monopolized by discussions about taking vacations in “clean air destinations” and which air filter to purchase.2 With the Chinese public growing increasingly concerned about the pollution problem and de- manding action, China matched its shift in rhetoric with concrete policy initiatives. The country released its National Air Quality Action Plan in 2013, laying out specific targets to improve air quality by the end of 2017. Included in the mammoth $270 billion initiative were plans to reduce annual average PM2.5 concentrations in the densely populated Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area by 25 percent and by 15 percent and 20 percent in the Pearl and Yangtze River Delta regions, respectively. Beijing, which had additionally set aside $120 billion to fight pollution, would need 3 to reduce PM2.5 levels to below 60 μg/m , or a 34 percent decline from its 2013 average of 91 3 μg/m . Across all urban areas, concentrations of PM10 would need to fall by at least 10 percent relative to 2012 levels. 2 Wainwright, Oliver, “Inside Beijing’s airpocalypse — a city made `almost uninhabitable’ by pollution”, The Guardian, December 16, 2014. EPIC Air Quality Life Index™ Update: Is China Winning its War on Pollution? | 3 Table 1: China National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control Goal 1 Lower urban concentrations of PM10 by 10 percent relative to 2012 levels; gradually increase the number of days with fairly good air quality. Goal 2 Reduce concentrations of PM2.5 In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, and Yangtze River Delta by 25 percent, 20 percent, and 15 percent, respectively. 3 Goal 3 Reduce the annual PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing to below 60 μg/m . The plan pledged to meet these goals by reducing dependency on coal, controlling vehicle emis- sions, increasing renewable energy generation, and increasing enforcement of emissions stan- dards. The government also increased transparency in reporting air quality statistics by widening its air quality monitoring network and releasing the data to the public. In short, the stage was set for China to finally begin addressing its decades-long struggle to control air pollution. Between 2013 and 2017, the government took concrete steps to follow through on plans outlined in the Action Plan. New coal-fired power plants were prohibited in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions, while existing plants were required to reduce their emissions. Those that didn’t were replaced with natural gas. Large cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, reduced emissions from automobiles by restricting the number of cars on the road. In the industrial sector, iron- and steel-making capacity was reduced. In one of its more aggressive actions, government officials in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area physically removed coal boilers from homes and replaced them with gas or electric heaters when the region was failing to meet its pollution targets. RESULTS The Battle is Won, But the War is Not Over 3 After analyzing government PM2.5 data from more than 200 monitors throughout the country, we find that the National Action Plan and subsequent aggressive measures to reduce pollution were strikingly successful. Since 2013, air quality has improved dramatically across the county, particularly in China’s most populated cities. As seen in Figures 2 and 3, pollution fell nearly across the board and outpaced the targets outlined by the National Action Plan. In the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, for example, concentrations fell by 37 μg/m3, or 36 percent from 2013 levels. The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River “The data is in—China is Delta regions saw similar declines in winning its war against pollution pollution of 27 percent and 34 percent, and is due to see dramatic respectively. For the 70 percent of the improvements in the overall population with data available in 2013 health of its people.” and 2017, concentrations of PM2.5 fell by an average of 23 g/m3, or 32 percent. MICHAEL GREENSTONE μ THE MILTON FRIEDMAN PROFESSOR IN ECONOMICS Although concentrations are still above DIRECTOR, EPIC 3 While the Chinese National Air Quality Monitoring Network includes over 1,500 monitors in 2017 and 750 monitors in 2013, our analysis focuses on the set of monitors with available data throughout the year in both 2013 and 2017.