CITY OF W INNIPEG C OMPREHENSIVE H OUSING N EEDS A SSESSMENT JAN-2020 Institute of Urban Studies 599 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg P: 204 982-1140 E: [email protected] Mailing Address: 515 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3B 2E9 © The City of Winnipeg Authors (alphabetically): Dr. Tom Carter Institute of Urban Studies (ret.) Tom Janzen Scatliff + Miller + Murray Scott McCullough Institute of Urban Studies Ryan Shirtliffe Institute of Urban Studies Evan Sinclair Scatliff + Miller + Murray Contributing Authors: Elliott Hannam BW Ferguson & Associates Ltd. Brett Ferguson BW Ferguson & Associates Ltd. Data Assembly, Database, and GIS mapping: Ryan Shirtliffe Institute of Urban Studies Reviewers: Noah Yauk PP&D, City of Winnipeg Jessica Lam PP&D, City of Winnipeg Tyler Kroeker Corporate Finance, City of Winnipeg Tyler Markowsky Corporate Finance, City of Winnipeg Suggested Citation: Carter, Tom, Tom Janzen, Scott McCullough, Ryan Shitliffe, Evan Sinclair (2020). City of Winnipeg Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment. Institute of Urban Studies, University of Winnipeg. Front Cover Photo: Ryan Sharpe. (2017) “An aerial photograph of the meandering Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba.” Wikipedia Commons. Used with permission. The photo shows the neighbourhoods of Riverview, Lord Roberts and Earl Grey in the foreground; McMillan, Osborne Village, part of Downtown, Norwood and St. Boniface in the mid-ground; and Point Douglas, with East Kildonan stretching to the horizon in the background. City of Winnipeg Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment Contents List of Tables: ................................................................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures: .............................................................................................................................................................. vii Acronyms / Abbreviations / Terms & Definitions: ...................................................................................................... viii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... xi Part 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Study Purpose .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Study Approach ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Sources of Data ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1.4 Study Area, Geographies, and Limitations ................................................................................................... 3 1.4.1 Study Area and Geographies ............................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 Availability of Data, Compiling Data .................................................................................................... 9 1.4.3 Other Missing Data .............................................................................................................................. 9 1.4.4 Comparison Municipalities .................................................................................................................. 9 1.4.5 The Housing Continuum .................................................................................................................... 10 Part II: Housing Demand Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Population Trends & Projections ............................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Historic Population Growth ............................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Growth Contributors ......................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.3 Zone Population Growth ................................................................................................................... 14 2.1.4 Population Projections for the City, CMA, and Outlying Areas ......................................................... 15 2.1.5 Age of Population .............................................................................................................................. 16 2.1.6 Population Age Groups by Zone ........................................................................................................ 18 2.1.7 Specific Population Groups ............................................................................................................... 20 2.2 Household Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 27 2.2.1 Household Growth ..................................................................................................................................... 27 2.2.2 Households by Age of Primary Household Maintainer .............................................................................. 29 2.2.3 Households by Size .................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.4 Households by Family Type........................................................................................................................ 32 2.2.5 Households by Tenure ............................................................................................................................... 36 2.2.6 Aboriginal Households ............................................................................................................................... 38 2.2.7 Recent Immigrant Households ................................................................................................................... 39 2.3 Economic Context ...................................................................................................................................... 40 2.3.1 Unemployment Rates and Labour Force Activity .............................................................................. 40 2.3.2 Average and Median Household Income for Winnipeg .................................................................... 43 2.3.4 Average and Median Household Income by Zones ........................................................................... 44 2.3.5 Measurements and Incidence of Low Income .................................................................................. 47 2.3.6 Low Income by Zone .................................................................................................................................. 49 2.3.7 Assistance Programs .................................................................................................................................. 50 2.3.11 Income Deciles ......................................................................................................................................... 55 2.3.12 Income Deciles for the CMHC Zones ........................................................................................................ 55 2.3.13 Income Deciles by the Downtown Zoning Boundary ............................................................................... 57 2.3.14 Income Deciles by Household Size ........................................................................................................... 58 2.3.15 Income Deciles by Total Bedrooms .......................................................................................................... 60 2.3.16 Income Deciles by Structure Type............................................................................................................ 61 2.3.17 Income Decile by Maintainer Age ............................................................................................................ 63 2.3.18 Income Deciles by Household Tenure ...................................................................................................... 65 2.3.19 Income Deciles by Specific Population Groups ........................................................................................ 67 Key Findings: ........................................................................................................................................................... 77 i City of Winnipeg Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment Part III Housing Supply Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 79 3.1 Overall Housing Supply .............................................................................................................................. 79 3.1.1 Trends in Dwellings ........................................................................................................................... 79 3.1.2 Housing Starts by Type ...................................................................................................................... 86 3.1.3 Age and Condition of