REINFORCING AGRO DEALER NETWORKS IN NIGER - AN IMPACT EVALUATION STUDY Final Report Submitted to the 3ie by Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research University of Ghana June, 2017 Reinforcing Agro Dealer Networks in Niger: An Impact Evaluation Study By Robert Darko Osei*, ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Isaac Osei-Akoto, ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Felix Ankoma Asante ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Mamadou Adam, INRAN, Niamey, Niger Ama Fenny, ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Pokuaa Adu, ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Louis Hodey, ISSER, University of Ghana, Legon Accra Acknowledgement We wish to acknowledge 3ie for funding and technical review and support throughout this study. We also wish to thank AGRA monitoring and evaluation office for the continued support and readiness to answer questions whenever we approached them. We will also wish to thank the implementing partners CEB who have been very tolerant throughout the study period. Finally we wish to thank various participants for their invaluable comments during our stakeholder meetings and other engagements. All views expressed in this study are those of the authors only. Email of corresponding Author: [email protected] Table of Content TABLE OF CONTENT ...................................................................................................................................... I LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................. I LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................................... II ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................III INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1 INTERVENTION, THEORY OF CHANGE AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS ........................................................ 3 2.1 PROGRAMME INTERVENTION ..........................................................................................................................3 CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................................. 6 TIMELINES ............................................................................................................................................ 8 EVALUATION: DESIGN, METHODS AND IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................... 9 5.1 EVALUATION DESIGN (INCLUDING RANDOMISATION) ..........................................................................................9 5.2 SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION ...................................................................................................................... 10 5.3 SURVEY METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 11 PROGRAMME: DESIGN, METHODS AND IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................. 12 6.1 PROGRAMME ............................................................................................................................................ 12 6.2 PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................................................................. 13 6.3 CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED ........................................................................................................................ 14 IMPACT ON KEY OUTCOMES ............................................................................................................... 16 7.1 ESTIMATION APPROACH .............................................................................................................................. 16 7.2 DESCRIPTIVE AND BALANCE TEST .................................................................................................................. 17 7.3 IMPACT RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................ 19 7.4 SUMMARY OF IMPACT RESULTS .................................................................................................................... 22 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................ 23 8.1 THREATS TO INTERNAL VALIDITY ................................................................................................................... 23 8.2 THREATS TO EXTERNAL VALIDITY .................................................................................................................. 24 8.3 STAKEHOLDER EXPECTATIONS AND EXPERIENCES ............................................................................................. 24 8.4 KEY LESSONS FROM THIS STUDY .................................................................................................................... 24 SPECIFIC FINDINGS FOR POLICY AND PRACTICES .................................................................................. 25 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIX 1: TABLES WITH RESULTS ..................................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIX 2: FIELD NOTES AND OTHER INFORMATION FROM FORMATIVE WORK. ......................................................... 48 APPENDIX 3: PRE-ANALYSIS PLAN. ....................................................................................................................... 49 APPENDIX 4: INFORMATIVE TABLES AND FIGURES ................................................................................................... 55 APPENDIX 5: DIFF-IN-DIFF ESTIMATIONS – ORIGINAL APPROACH ............................................................................ 60 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................... 61 i List of Tables TABLE 1 INTENDED TREATMENT VERSUS ACTUAL TREATMENT BY REGION ................................................................................................... 15 TABLE 2 SAMPLE ATTRITION BY TREATMENT ARMS ....................................................................................................................................... 23 TABLE 3 LOGIT MODEL ON EFFECT OF EX-POST TREATMENT ON ATTRITION ................................................................................................. 23 TABLE A 1 BALANCE TEST RESULTS FOR INDICATORS OF INTEREST ........................................................................................ 26 TABLE A 2 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR SEED USE...................................................................................................................... 27 TABLE A 3 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON SEED USE ............................................................................................. 27 TABLE A 4 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR SEED EXPENSES ............................................................................................................ 28 TABLE A 5 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON SEED EXPENSES .................................................................................... 29 TABLE A 6 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR SEED QUANTITY ........................................................................................................... 30 TABLE A 7 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON SEED QUANTITY ................................................................................... 31 TABLE A 8 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR CHEMICAL USE ............................................................................................................. 31 TABLE A 9 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON CHEMICAL USE ..................................................................................... 32 TABLE A 10 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR CHEMICAL EXPENSES .............................................................................................. 32 TABLE A 11 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON CHEMICAL EXPENSES ...................................................................... 33 TABLE A 12 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR CHEMICAL QUANTITY ............................................................................................. 33 TABLE A 13 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON CHEMICAL QUANTITY ..................................................................... 34 TABLE A 14 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR FERTILIZER USE ....................................................................................................... 34 TABLE A 15 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON FERTILIZER USE ............................................................................... 35 TABLE A 16 FIRST STAGE RESULTS FOR FERTILIZER EXPENSES .............................................................................................. 35 TABLE A 17 IMPACT ESTIMATES OF PROGRAMME ON FERTILIZER EXPENSES.....................................................................