ENERGY FORUM JAMES A. BAKER III INST I TUTE FOR PUBL I C POL I CY RICE UNIVERSITY Natural Gas in North America: Markets and Security The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Peter Hartley, Ph.D., Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ph.D. and Jennifer Rosthal THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES By PETER HARTLEY, PH.D. GEORGE AND CYNTHIA MITCHELL CHAIR AND PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY, RICE SCHOLAR, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY KENNETH B. MEDLOCK III, PH.D. FELLOW IN ENERGY STUDIES, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY, ADJUNCT ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY AND JENNIFER ROSTHAL GRADUATE FELLOW, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY, GRADUATE STUDENT, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY PREPARED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ENERGY STUDY SPONSORED BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND MCKINSEY & COMPANY NOVEMBER 2007 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices THIS PAPER WAS WRITTEN BY A RESEARCHER (OR RESEARCHERS) WHO PARTICIPATED IN A BAKER INSTITUTE STUDY, “NATURAL GAS IN NORTH AMERICA: MARKETS AND SECURITY.” WHEREVER FEASIBLE, THIS PAPER WAS REVIEWED BY OUTSIDE EXPERTS BEFORE THEY ARE RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE RESEARCH AND VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THESE PAPERS ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL RESEARCHER(S) AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. © 2007 BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OF RICE UNIVERSITY THIS MATERIAL MAY BE QUOTED OR REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION, PROVIDED APPROPRIATE CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. 2 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ABOUT THE POLICY REPORT NATURAL GAS IN NORTH AMERICA: MARKETS AND SECURITY Predicted shortages in U.S. natural gas markets have prompted concern about the future of U.S. supply sources, both domestically and from abroad. The United States has a premier energy resource base, but it is a mature province that has reached peak production in many traditional producing regions. In recent years, environmental and land-use considerations have prompted the United States to remove significant acreage that was once available for exploration and energy development. Twenty years ago, nearly 75 percent of federal lands were available for private lease to oil and gas exploration companies. Since then, that share has fallen to 17 percent. At the same time, U.S. demand for natural gas is expected to grow close to 2.0 percent per year over the next two decades. With growth in domestic supplies of natural gas production in the lower 48 states expected to be constrained in the coming years, U.S. natural gas imports are expected to rise significantly in the next two decades, raising concerns about supply security and prompting questions about what is appropriate national natural gas policy. The future development of the North American natural gas market will be highly influenced by U.S. policy choices and changes in international supply alternatives. The Baker Institute Policy Report on Natural Gas in North America: Markets and Security brings together two research projects undertaken by the Baker Institute’s Energy Forum. The first study focuses on the future development of the North American natural gas market and the factors that will influence supply security and pricing. This study considers, in particular, how access to domestic resources and the growth of international trade in liquefied natural gas will impact U.S. energy security. The second study examines the price relationship between oil and natural gas, with special attention given to natural gas demand in the industrial and power generation sectors – sectors in which natural gas can be displaced by competition from other fuels. This policy report is 3 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices designed to help both market participants and policymakers understand the risks associated with various policy choices and market scenarios. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy would like to thank McKinsey & Company and the sponsors of the Baker Institute Energy Forum for their generous support in making this project possible. The authors of this paper would also like to acknowledge the seminar participants at Rice University and the United States Association for Energy Economics annual meetings, 2006, Ann Arbor, Michigan, for valuable comments. 4 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ABOUT THE AUTHORS PETER HARTLEY, PH.D. GEORGE AND CYNTHIA MITCHELL CHAIR AND PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY, RICE SCHOLAR, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY Peter Hartley is the George and Cynthia Mitchell chair and a professor of economics at Rice University. He is also a Rice scholar of energy economics for the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. He has worked for more than 25 years on energy economics issues, focusing originally on electricity, but including also work on gas, oil, coal, nuclear and renewables. He wrote on reform of the electricity supply industry in Australia throughout the 1980s and early 1990s and advised the government of Victoria when it completed the acclaimed privatization and reform of the electricity industry in that state in 1989. The Victorian reforms became the core of the wider deregulation and reform of the electricity and gas industries in Australia. Apart from energy and environmental economics, Hartley has published research on theoretical and applied issues in money and banking, business cycles and international finance. In 1974, he completed an honors degree at the Australian National University, majoring in mathematics. He worked for the Priorities Review Staff, and later the Economic Division, of the Prime Minister’s Department in the Australian government while completing a master’s degree in economics at the Australian National University in 1977. Hartley obtained a Ph.D. in economics at the University of Chicago in 1980. KENNETH B. MEDLOCK III, PH.D. FELLOW IN ENERGY STUDIES, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY, ADJUNCT ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY Kenneth B. Medlock III is currently research fellow in energy studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and adjunct assistant professor in the department of economics at Rice University. He is a principal in the development of the Rice World Natural Gas Trade Model, which is aimed at assessing the future of liquefied natural gas 5 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (LNG) trade. Medlock’s research covers a wide range of topics in energy economics, such as domestic and international natural gas markets, choice in electricity generation capacity and the importance of diversification, gasoline markets, emerging technologies in the transportation sector, modeling national oil company behavior, economic development and energy demand, forecasting energy demand, and energy use and the environment. His research has been published in numerous academic journals, book chapters and industry periodicals. For the department of economics, Medlock teaches courses in energy economics. JENNIFER ROSTHAL GRADUATE FELLOW, JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY, GRADUATE STUDENT, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, RICE UNIVERSITY Jennifer Rosthal is a graduate fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Energy Forum and a Ph.D. student in the Rice University economics department. Rosthal's research focuses on United States natural gas and electricity demand and gas and petroleum product-price relationships. Prior to coming to Rice University, Rosthal worked as a research assistant at Hobart and William Smith Colleges and co-authored the book, “Pathways to a Hydrogen Future” (Elsevier Science, 2007). She has presented her work at the United States Association of Energy Economics (USAEE) conferences and holds the student representative position on the USAEE Council. Rosthal has a B.A. in economics from William Smith College. 6 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ABOUT THE ENERGY FORUM AT THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY The Baker Institute Energy Forum is a multifaceted center that promotes original, forward-looking discussion and research on the energy-related challenges facing our society in the 21st century. The mission of the Energy Forum is to promote the development of informed and realistic public policy choices in the energy area by educating policy makers and the public about important trends—both regional and global—that shape the nature of global energy markets and influence the quantity and security of vital supplies needed to fuel world economic growth and prosperity. The forum is one of several major foreign policy programs at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. The mission of the Baker Institute is to help bridge the gap between the theory and practice of public policy by drawing together experts from academia, government, the media, business, and nongovernmental organizations. By involving both policymakers and scholars, the institute seeks to improve the debate on selected public policy issues and make a difference in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of public policy. The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University – MS 40 P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX 77251-1892 http://www.bakerinstitute.org [email protected] 7 The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices I. Introduction The relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices affects energy consumers, producers and marketers. For example, energy prices for the two fuels influence the incentives to invest in inventories or different types of energy-using equipment. Energy market traders also are interested to know whether there is a tendency for the relative prices of different energy commodities to return to a particular value, since if such a tendency exists, it might form the basis of a trading strategy.