Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over East Coast of India in the Global Warming Era U. C. Mohanty School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Mesoscale modeling of TCs with MM5, ARW, NMM and HWRF systems • Conclusions and Future Directions Natural disasters Hydrometeorologi- Geophysical cal Disasters: Disasters: Earthquakes Cyclones Avalanches Flood Land slides Drought Volcanic eruption Tornadoes Dust storms Heat waves Cold waves Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Global warming Period Rate 25 0.1770.052 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 150 0.0450.012 Years /decade IPCC Introduction • Climate models are becoming most important tools for its increasing efficiency and reliability to capture past climate more realistically with time and capability to provide future climate projections. • Observations of land based weather stations in global network confirm that Earth surface air temperature has risen more than 0.7 ºC since the late 1800s to till date. This warming of average temperature around the globe has been especially sharp since 1970s. • The IPCC predicted that probable range of increasing temperature between 1.4 - 5.8 ºC over 1990 levels by the year 2100. Contd…… • The warming in the past century is mainly due to the increase of green house gases and most of the climate scientists have agreed with IPCC report that the Earth will warm along with increasing green house gases. • In warming environment, weather extremes such as heavy rainfall (flood), deficit rainfall (drought), heat/cold wave, storm etc will occur more frequent with higher intensity. • Climate change is now most important issue for the scientists and politicians worldwide. • Proper disaster management can reduce the loss of lives. Global Impact of natural disaster 77.27% Hydromet 12.33% Geogological 10.40% Biological Bay of Bengal Pre monsoon 1891-1949 70 58 58 1950-2008 D – 0% 60 50 43 39 40 31 CS – 10% 30 22 20 10 SCS – 41% No. of systems in No. years of 59 systems 0 D CS SCS Category of cyclonic disturbances Post monsoon 1891-1949 250 218 1950-2008 198 D – 10% 200 150 122 127 CS – 4% 100 81 47 50 SCS – 72% No. of systems in No. years of 59 systems 0 D CS SCS Source: Mohanty et al 2011, Natural Category of cyclonic disturbances Hazards Genesis of the cyclones over the different parts of the Bay of Bengal for the different epochs. 80 Solid bar:1901-1950 Dash bar: 1951-2007 70 Blue: Storms 60 Red: Severe Storms 50 40 30 20 10 0 NB CB SB Mohanty et al..2011 Annual Frequency of Natural Hazards during past 60 years 16 Flood Storm 14 Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 TYPES OF POTENTIAL DAMAGE DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL CYCLONES Low Pressure, Large Pressure Gradient and Strong, Low Level Convergence of Mass, Heat and Moisture Strong Winds Storm Surge Heavy Rainfall • Damage due to Structures • Flooding of Coastal • Loss of Life • Loss of Power and Areas • Destruction of Vegetation Communications • Erosion of Beaches Crop and Livestock • Loss of Life and Injuries • Loss of Soil Fertility from • Contamination of Water • Generation of Devastating Saline Intrusions Supply Storm Surges • Loss of Life • Land Subsidence • Destruction of Vegetation, • Damage of Structures • Flooding of Land Area Crops and Livestock Real time forecast of Tropical Cyclones over Indian seas Meso-scale Modelling systems using to predict TC activities over NIO at IIT D/ IIT BBS 1. NRL ( From 1982 to 1997) 2. Meso-scale Model Version-5 (From 1995 to 2005) 3. Weather Research and Forecast Model [ARW and NMM] ( From 2005 onwards) 4. Hurricane WRF (From 2007 onwards) Recent Activities WRF Model Configuration Model Dynamics Non-hydrostatic Horizontal resolution 9 km Forecast Length 72 – 96 hrs (depends on TCs life) Time step 30 s TCsMap over projection Arabian Sea Mercator Horizontal grid system Arakawa C-gridTCs over Bay of Bengal Vertical co-ordinate Terrain following hydrostatic pressure co-ordinate LongitudeRadiation : 48 E – 78 E Dudhia’s long & short wave LatitudeSurface layer : 5 N – 28 N Thermal diffusionLongitude: scheme 77 E – 102 E ResolutionInitial/Lateral : 27 boundary km FNL Latitude : 3 N – 28 N IC & BC : GFS analysis & Resolution : 27 km Cumulusforecast (0.5 x 0.5) Kain Fritsch PBL scheme YSU Microphysics WSM-3 scheme 14 TCs during 2007 – 2013 (Total 162 cases) Basin Name (Intensity) Simulations period in 12-hr interval Observed Landfall No. of forecasts Gonu (SuCS) 00 UTC 2 – 12 UTC 5 June 2007 03UTC 6 June (over Oman) 8 Arabian Sea Yemyin (CS) 00 and 12 UTC 25 June 2007 03 UTC 26 June 2 Cyclones Phyan (CS) 12 UTC 9 – 00 UTC 11 Nov 2009 Between 10-11 UTC 11 Nov 4 (5 TCs) 17 cyclones Phet (VSCS) 12 UTC 31 May – 00 UTC 6 June 2010 12 UTC 6 June (LF-2) 12 31 cases Murjan (CS) 00 UTC 23 – 25 October 2012 18 UTC 25 October 2012 5 Akash (CS) 12 UTC 13 – 12 UTC of 14 May 2007 00 UTC 15 May 3 Sidr (VSCS) 12 UTC 11 – 00 UTC 15 Nov 2007 15 UTC 15 Nov 8 Nargis (VSCS) 12 UTC 27 April – 00 UTC 2 May 2008 12 UTC 2 May 10 Rashmi (CS) 00 UTC 25 – 12 UTC 26 Oct 2008 00 UTC 27 Oct 4 KhaiMuk (CS) 12 UTC 13 – 12 UTC 15 Nov 2008 00 UTC 16 Nov 5 Nisha (CS) 12 UTC 25 – 26 Nov 2008 00 UTC 27 Nov 3 Bijli (CS) 12 UTC 14 – 00 UTC 17 Apr 2009 15 UTC 17 April 6 Bay of Aila (SCS) 12 UTC 23 – 00 UTC 25 May 2009 9 UTC 25 May 4 Bengal Ward (CS) 12 UTC 10 – 12 UTC 13 Dec 2009 9 UTC 14 Dec 7 cyclones (14 TCs) Laila (VSCS) 12 UTC 17 – 19 May 2010 12 UTC 20 May 5 80 cases Giri (VSCS) 12 UTC 20 – 00 UTC of 22 Oct 2010 14 UTC 22 Oct 4 Jal (VSCS) 00 UTC of 4 – 7 Nov 2010 16 UTC 7 Nov 7 Thane (VSCS) 00 UTC 26 – 12 UTC 29 Dec 2011 00 UTC 30 Dec 8 Nilam (CS) 00 UTC 28 – 12 UTC 31 Oct 2012 15 UTC 31 Oct 2012 6 Mahasen (CS) 00 UTC 10 – 12 UTC 16 May 2013 9UTC 16 May 2013 13 PHAILIN (VSCS) 7-12 Oct 2013 17 UTC 12 Oct 2013 9 (SCS) Helen 19 – 22 Nov 2013 9 UTC 22 Nov 2013 6 Lehar (VSCS) 25 – 28 Nov 2013 9 UTC 28 Nov 2013 6 Madi(VSCS) 8 – 12 Dec 2013 Dissipated over BoB 8 15 Total Number of cyclones during 2007 – 13 162 Cyclone Aila Cyclone Jal (00 UTC of 23-26 May 2009) (00 UTC of 3 – 7 Nov 2010) Cyclone Thane Cyclone Phailin (00 UTC of 26-30 December, 2011) ( 12 UTC 7 – 12 UTC 12 Oct 2013) 16 Mean track errors for NIO cyclones during 2007 - 2011 (under operational setup) These error statistics are based on 100 TC cases Mean Errors for NIO TCs with different resolutions Mean Intensity Errors (10m winds m/s) 500 400 Mean Errors for NIO TCs with different resolutions 42 42 42 40 40 39 39 38 27 km 18 km 9 km 38 45 36 10 36 300 35 5 23 25 0 15 -8 -7 -8 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -9 -6 -8 -5 -6 -4 -6 -4 -11 -12 -13 -13 -12 -11 -10 200 -10 -5 5 -5 -10 -15 Mean (km)DPE 100 -15 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 -25 Mean DPE (km) -35 113 106 104 140 129 115 186 169 141 248 222 204 316 291 274 375 359 329 -20 -45 0 18 km 9 km % of improvement -25 -55 12 24 36 48 60 72 Forecast length (hour) Forecast length (hour) Recent cyclone Giri (20-22 Oct 2010) Observed TC Location Initial cyclone vortex position error is about 60 km 17 Model TC Location Osuri et al. 2013, JAMC Errors for recurving TCs 700 Mean errors for 600 recurving TCs 500 27 km 18 km 9 km 400 Improvement is 300 significant with high resolution for recurving 200 Mean (km)DPE TCs. 100 69.03 65 131 128 109 164 149 128 231 220 193 308 284 245 382 347 330 440 413 390 0 74 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 Forecast length (hour) 700 Mean errors w.r.t Intensity at initialization at 27 km resolution Mean track errors w.r.t 600 intensity at initialization 500 400 DD CS SCS Stronger cyclones can be 300 tracked with minimum 200 errors compared to Mean DPEs (km) 100 marginal cyclones or 81 60 51 131 118 92 176 146 129 211 201 165 300 285 233 334 329 264 421 412 330 depressions. 0 0 12 24 36 48 60 7218 Forecast length (hour) HWRF Prediction of TC Roanu (00 UTC 18- 22 May 2016) Real time prediction of movement, intensity of very severe cyclonic storm Hud-Hud over Bay of Bengal using High resolution dynamical model Nadimpalli et al., 2016 Genesis prediction of Hud- Hud (at 03UTC 7 Oct 2014) 39 hour forecast 27 hour forecast 15 hour forecast Knots Movement and Intensity of Hud- Hud Model predicted tracks Mean Track error (km) Track errors (km) errors Track Forecast length (hours) Model predicted 10 m maximum winds (knots) Mean Intensity Error (knots) 10m wind Speed (knots) Speed wind10m Mean 10m wind errors (knots) errors wind 10m Mean Time (ddhh) of October 2014 Forecast Length (hr) Grey lines are different forecast Thick black line is mean value Thick line with circle symbol is IMD OBS Rainfall prediction during Landfall day of TC Hud- Hud TRMM IMD-NCMRWF cm 96 h fcst 72 h fcst 48 h fcst Numbers are IMD station rainfall OBS 24-hr accumulated rainfall (cm) during landfall day for HudHud (Verification at 103 stations) Maximum Rainfall: 38 cm RMSE: 8 cm Grey lines are model-predicted rainfall (cm) initialized at different initial times Composite Reflectivity of HudHud Vishakhapatnam DWR station (OBS) Model predicted Real-time forecast of Phailin TC Phailin (96 hour) Forecast based on 12 UTC of 8 October 2013 White track is observed track Time error 5 hrs ahead 5 hrs error Time Landfall point error is 29 km is error point Landfall TC Phailin (72 hour) Forecast based on 12 UTC of 9 October 2013 Time error 2 hrs ahead 2 hrs error Time Landfall point error is 16 km is error point Landfall TC PHAILIN Track prediction from 00UTC 8 – 12 Oct 2013 Intensity prediction